TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

China Taiwan · resolved market

Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 2 and 6 seconds on October 30, 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$111,439
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$107,704

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,439 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 213 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7b20…ee55backed Yes1c18,032$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.8230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x191d…ed35backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No70c4,354$3,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,323.53450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-19.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No69c4,217$2,922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,295.173928.2%11 W · 28 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-51.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes25c2,663$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.65185.6%1 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick18cpaid-85.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x00b1…c88fbacked Yes38c2,639$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d5a…ad91backed Yes1c2,247$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x742c…6844backed Yes31c2,157$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6aa…a95abacked Yes1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac3a…6835backed Yes1c1,915$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-72.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c85…9fd5backed Yes27c1,697$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0303…fcd1backed No67c1,333$890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.65250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4058…8b1cbacked No66c1,124$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.53540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-26.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc77…c035backed No72c1,075$772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.94666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick68cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1773…1727backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1fe…9974backed Yes41c999.78$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd38d…5895backed Yes34c869.77$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc87…dd68backed Yes26c868.56$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.0130%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5207…686bbacked Yes31c864.64$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.382584%21 W · 4 L+9.7wins+0.39per pick45cpaid+94.5%equal weight72+0.19 edge/pick
0x5602…388dbacked Yes35c853.41$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes26c801.85$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.751741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes27c771.93$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.862250%11 W · 11 L+4.6wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+58%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes4c750$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0f6…f699backed No65c701.86$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.11475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+27.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x675a…0551backed Yes33c688.96$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.1630%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No64c579.32$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.065345.3%24 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3a8…a3c9backed Yes36c531.85$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc49…0062backed Yes25c524.97$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.62520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes21c500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105850%4 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+24.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x15c3…24a2backed Yes24c500$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3160…c652backed Yes31c499.99$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15530%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ae1…5cacbacked Yes23c480$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No69c477.47$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.92445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0234…62dabacked Yes43c465.47$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid+204%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb94…b5c4backed Yes29c441.92$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8666…d7c7backed Yes28c400$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes20c400$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-40.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ba3…22fabacked Yes28c400$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf00a…04b0backed Yes26c383.52$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa40…8b4fbacked Yes25c380$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick14cpaid+35%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02d3…d671backed Yes38c368.87$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.92425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd832…67e0backed Yes28c359.07$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x870a…bd43backed Yes30c333.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf058…955bbacked Yes30c332$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.86333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-37.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes29c329.11$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdc2…af19backed Yes31c323.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid+51%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc331…1d71backed Yes33c317.2$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10550%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9046…6b25backed Yes33c303.94$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d9a…db3fbacked Yes37c300$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e2b…53a0backed Yes24c300$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7140%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf82a…7c35backed No69c300$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.75250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-27.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7eef…81b8backed Yes26c299.99$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4093…52d3backed Yes37c298.08$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd63c…c0fabacked Yes35c285.92$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddfb…a9d6backed Yes31c282.33$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87f4…49e7backed No57c267.99$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.58333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-41.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked No66c263.82$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.75580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+29.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1033…d851backed Yes39c258.17$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe55…68d5backed Yes39c254.11$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x031b…babcbacked Yes27c250$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf2c…8c84backed Yes32c248$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0283…e7d3backed Yes35c241.13$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xce03…5608backed Yes25c239.6$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c5d…0b1abacked Yes23c236.48$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x812f…52bebacked Yes25c227.23$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4610…0eb3backed Yes32c222.56$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1349…b7fabacked Yes18c220$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1172…ac19backed No69c219.31$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.992100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+65.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c20…64a2backed Yes28c217.94$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb95c…4140backed Yes34c210$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x644e…ff58backed Yes27c205$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.55450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+74%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4b6…8001backed Yes29c203.85$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e52…9434backed Yes37c201.35$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x63be…2c64backed No62c200$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$761100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes37c200$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743225%8 W · 24 L-7.5wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-65.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x6f19…b9ffbacked No62c199.22$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.11450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+65.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a70…3fc8backed Yes29c188.28$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.71425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-52.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe5d…3f8dbacked Yes27c186.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48d3…7392backed Yes27c185.19$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.39per pick56cpaid-75.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x1980…ae9bbacked Yes28c184$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.6120%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6424…9e53backed Yes27c181.88$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x350e…6539backed Yes38c178.22$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.9430%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5e16…c5e8backed Yes28c175$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid+31.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63e6…6b20backed Yes29c173.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcddd…166cbacked Yes29c173.35$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5da2…931dbacked Yes29c172.61$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc019…64c8backed Yes29c170.46$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No62c170.13$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.052080%16 W · 4 L+4.9wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+49.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6213…9648backed Yes32c161.13$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.56333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+81.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1822…f052backed Yes31c159.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dd0…b077backed Yes32c156.25$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23d4…6a60backed Yes26c153.85$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebb4…abe5backed Yes33c152.36$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…4d48backed Yes31c150.26$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa05c…aa9bbacked Yes27c146.81$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03e0…89acbacked Yes35c143.09$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed Yes28c142.86$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4040%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdacf…8d11backed Yes36c140$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1db5…79f4backed Yes31c139.22$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86e6…f634backed Yes29c138.07$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.