China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 2 and 6 seconds on October 30, 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6cc7aa1d09bda0524d115d740f41105d49233cb63d61485f018f107a982715e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $111,439
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $107,704
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,439 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 213 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b20…ee55backed Yes | 1c | 18,032$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x191d…ed35backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 70c | 4,354$3,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,323.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 69c | 4,217$2,922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,295.17 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes | 25c | 2,663$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.65 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00b1…c88fbacked Yes | 38c | 2,639$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5a…ad91backed Yes | 1c | 2,247$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…6844backed Yes | 31c | 2,157$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…a95abacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac3a…6835backed Yes | 1c | 1,915$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c85…9fd5backed Yes | 27c | 1,697$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0303…fcd1backed No | 67c | 1,333$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…8b1cbacked No | 66c | 1,124$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 72c | 1,075$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.94 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1773…1727backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 41c | 999.78$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd38d…5895backed Yes | 34c | 869.77$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc87…dd68backed Yes | 26c | 868.56$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 31c | 864.64$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.38 | 25 | 84%21 W · 4 L | +9.7wins | +0.39per pick | 45cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 72+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x5602…388dbacked Yes | 35c | 853.41$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 26c | 801.85$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.75 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 27c | 771.93$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.86 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +4.6wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +58%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 4c | 750$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 65c | 701.86$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.11 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x675a…0551backed Yes | 33c | 688.96$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 579.32$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.06 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a8…a3c9backed Yes | 36c | 531.85$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc49…0062backed Yes | 25c | 524.97$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15c3…24a2backed Yes | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3160…c652backed Yes | 31c | 499.99$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae1…5cacbacked Yes | 23c | 480$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 69c | 477.47$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.9 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0234…62dabacked Yes | 43c | 465.47$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +204%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb94…b5c4backed Yes | 29c | 441.92$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8666…d7c7backed Yes | 28c | 400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes | 20c | 400$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba3…22fabacked Yes | 28c | 400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf00a…04b0backed Yes | 26c | 383.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa40…8b4fbacked Yes | 25c | 380$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02d3…d671backed Yes | 38c | 368.87$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd832…67e0backed Yes | 28c | 359.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 30c | 333.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…955bbacked Yes | 30c | 332$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 29c | 329.11$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc2…af19backed Yes | 31c | 323.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 33c | 317.2$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9046…6b25backed Yes | 33c | 303.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9a…db3fbacked Yes | 37c | 300$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2b…53a0backed Yes | 24c | 300$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…7c35backed No | 69c | 300$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eef…81b8backed Yes | 26c | 299.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4093…52d3backed Yes | 37c | 298.08$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd63c…c0fabacked Yes | 35c | 285.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddfb…a9d6backed Yes | 31c | 282.33$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed No | 57c | 267.99$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 66c | 263.82$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.75 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…d851backed Yes | 39c | 258.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe55…68d5backed Yes | 39c | 254.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x031b…babcbacked Yes | 27c | 250$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2c…8c84backed Yes | 32c | 248$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0283…e7d3backed Yes | 35c | 241.13$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce03…5608backed Yes | 25c | 239.6$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c5d…0b1abacked Yes | 23c | 236.48$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x812f…52bebacked Yes | 25c | 227.23$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4610…0eb3backed Yes | 32c | 222.56$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1349…b7fabacked Yes | 18c | 220$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1172…ac19backed No | 69c | 219.31$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c20…64a2backed Yes | 28c | 217.94$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb95c…4140backed Yes | 34c | 210$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x644e…ff58backed Yes | 27c | 205$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +74%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b6…8001backed Yes | 29c | 203.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Yes | 37c | 201.35$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63be…2c64backed No | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -7.5wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked No | 62c | 199.22$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a70…3fc8backed Yes | 29c | 188.28$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5d…3f8dbacked Yes | 27c | 186.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…7392backed Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.39per pick | 56cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…ae9bbacked Yes | 28c | 184$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…9e53backed Yes | 27c | 181.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed Yes | 38c | 178.22$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e16…c5e8backed Yes | 28c | 175$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63e6…6b20backed Yes | 29c | 173.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcddd…166cbacked Yes | 29c | 173.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5da2…931dbacked Yes | 29c | 172.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc019…64c8backed Yes | 29c | 170.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 62c | 170.13$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.05 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +4.9wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6213…9648backed Yes | 32c | 161.13$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…f052backed Yes | 31c | 159.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd0…b077backed Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d4…6a60backed Yes | 26c | 153.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb4…abe5backed Yes | 33c | 152.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…4d48backed Yes | 31c | 150.26$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa05c…aa9bbacked Yes | 27c | 146.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03e0…89acbacked Yes | 35c | 143.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…8d11backed Yes | 36c | 140$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…79f4backed Yes | 31c | 139.22$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e6…f634backed Yes | 29c | 138.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 2 and 6 seconds on October 30, 2025?this page
- Will Trump and Xi not shake hands on October 30, 2025?No won
- Will Trump and Xi shake hands for 10 seconds or more on October 30, 2025?Yes won
- Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 6 and 10 seconds on October 30, 2025?No won
- Will Trump and Xi shake hands for less than 2 seconds on October 30, 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.