TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x191d…ed35

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
22
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Lol, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Lol at 57 out of 100; worst NBA at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST1338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 32.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Pistons vs. Pacersbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST+25%+$2.5
Pistons vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Jazz vs. Lakersbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Grizzlies vs. Spursbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Pistons vs. Hawksbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST+100%+$10
Thunder vs. Clippersbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+41.5%+$16.59
Mavericks vs. Rocketsbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Bulls vs. Knicksbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$16
76ers vs. Netsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+49.3%+$9.85
Raptors vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Celtics vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
76ers vs. Wizardsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$10.77
All 13 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Nov 9, 2025, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+285.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
Lol — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)backed T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+78.1%+$31.26
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5)backed KT Rolster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+669.2%+$100.38
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5)backed T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT+108.3%+$21.67
All 3 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Oct 30, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Predators vs. Flyersbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+69.5%+$13.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $10 million?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+66.7%+$13.33
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Nov 18, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cowboys vs. Raidersbacked Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+56.3%+$5.63
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 14, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+47.1%+$7.06
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Oct 30, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 2 and 6 seconds on October 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.