TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Pistons vs. Hawks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Pistonsof Pistons, Hawks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,003,244
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,715,357

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,003,244 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,979 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7606…2836backed Pistons56c522,624$292,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229,954.392365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+24.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb744…5210backed Hawks44c259,897$115,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115,300.9815443.5%67 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0140…9028backed Hawks51c205,062$104,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104,221.614544.4%20 W · 25 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Hawks44c193,996$85,383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85,383.42,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Pistons52c159,912$82,614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77,298.622,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82a1…e03abacked Hawks46c148,299$68,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68,3595952.5%31 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c57…c94dbacked Hawks46c140,978$64,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64,299.715151%26 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Pistons54c137,495$74,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63,028.7820253.5%108 W · 94 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5922…3388backed Hawks50c129,189$64,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64,117.434456.8%25 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Hawks25c78,204$19,932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,932.374,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Pistons52c65,027$33,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,214.632,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Pistons58c63,210$36,546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,664.131,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd538…cc31backed Hawks45c52,973$23,838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,83821450%107 W · 107 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-12.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d56…7486backed Pistons56c52,973$29,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,308.2117861.2%109 W · 69 L+11.4wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6380…e74fbacked Pistons50c51,163$25,582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,581.51650%8 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Hawks47c50,623$23,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,683.412,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Hawks50c50,000$25,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,0001,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8605…750fbacked Pistons67c40,559$27,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,271.392657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5224…0de8backed Pistons66c40,000$26,322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,678.25658.9%33 W · 23 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+20.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Hawks26c36,291$9,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,431.5926038.1%99 W · 161 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Pistons50c30,000$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,00038248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc5b…5b15backed Pistons56c26,969$15,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,884.954544.4%20 W · 25 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x94d7…bef5backed Hawks15c26,753$4,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,10025925.9%67 W · 192 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Pistons54c25,208$13,494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,714.2944648%214 W · 232 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8058…d023backed Hawks49c22,509$11,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,029.637946.8%37 W · 42 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc4a…a3a3backed Hawks48c22,222$10,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,666.531070%7 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+15.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Pistons55c20,492$11,251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,241.2437557.6%216 W · 159 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Pistons50c20,000$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,00048448.8%236 W · 248 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04b9…cdaabacked Hawks50c20,000$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0004766%31 W · 16 L+7.2wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+31.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Pistons52c19,408$10,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,315.865433.3%18 W · 36 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-35.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Hawks47c18,377$8,634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,634.1466853.4%357 W · 311 L+22.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Hawks46c17,953$8,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,204.6447751.8%247 W · 230 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed Hawks51c17,647$9,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,0008846.6%41 W · 47 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdeaf…dbaabacked Hawks25c16,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00037930.6%116 W · 263 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ecd…a578backed Hawks22c15,000$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,30023135.1%81 W · 150 L-11.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Hawks44c14,893$6,603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,602.8774748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Hawks49c14,837$7,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,319.6192753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7a7…d3abbacked Hawks2c14,800$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23820034%68 W · 132 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid+28.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Hawks18c14,680$2,689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,688.648046%221 W · 259 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be6…2006backed Pistons51c14,354$7,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,054.082580%20 W · 5 L+3.0wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Pistons52c14,195$7,381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,813.377946.8%37 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7412…85d0backed Hawks48c14,116$6,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,771.7726544.9%119 W · 146 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Hawks42c13,642$5,727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,726.531,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Hawks47c13,547$6,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,374.669852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Pistons62c12,971$8,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,952.9634062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b71…8044backed Hawks51c12,000$6,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,0708939.3%35 W · 54 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+2.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa6ee…697bbacked Pistons57c11,841$6,749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,091.8720352.2%106 W · 97 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8ba…ab22backed Pistons70c11,429$8,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,428.57425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-64.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Hawks48c11,372$5,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,495.7778445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Pistons56c10,889$6,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,79125753.7%138 W · 119 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4534…f867backed Pistons80c10,500$8,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,147.7313625.7%35 W · 101 L+0.5wins0.00per pick25cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Hawks30c10,442$3,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,180.418,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb149…18c5backed Hawks49c10,402$5,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,097.211163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+31.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed Pistons79c10,000$7,934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,065.8227251.1%139 W · 133 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Hawks1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3719…2df0backed Pistons50c10,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,0002941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7e94…9baebacked Pistons51c10,000$5,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,899.986100%6 W · 0 L+2.7wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+97.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Hawks49c9,840$4,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,819.866250.8%336 W · 326 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeff7…4bb3backed Pistons78c9,823$7,671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,152.042733.3%9 W · 18 L-4.8wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-51.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Hawks46c9,300$4,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,280.9861835.4%219 W · 399 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Hawks21c9,220$1,972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,972.211,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Pistons54c9,000$4,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,14047748.8%233 W · 244 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Hawks51c8,400$4,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,28440243.8%176 W · 226 L-1.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Hawks45c8,141$3,663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,663.2772450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Hawks42c7,799$3,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,275.8482442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa83b…0e4abacked Pistons68c7,335$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,334.537050%35 W · 35 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9534…1fe8backed Hawks48c7,040$3,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,344.1826247.7%125 W · 137 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd78d…60bebacked Hawks1c6,404$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.0425016.8%42 W · 208 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-38.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x194f…3d95backed Pistons53c6,383$3,383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,000.1413345.9%61 W · 72 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x550b…a964backed Pistons52c6,300$3,274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,026.24650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Pistons70c6,227$4,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,894.7585344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa849…c825backed Pistons49c6,000$2,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,059.9916641%68 W · 98 L-12.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5fea…1accbacked Pistons50c5,990$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,989.711866.7%12 W · 6 L+3.2wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+40.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdd52…0001backed Pistons61c5,915$3,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,311.031662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Pistons68c5,351$3,641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,710.595,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Hawks27c5,246$1,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,407.691,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Hawks46c5,206$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,400.416,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Pistons53c5,000$2,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,35043051.4%221 W · 209 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeef4…32a1backed Hawks48c5,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40010041%41 W · 59 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Hawks47c5,000$2,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,35045348.1%218 W · 235 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ddb…420bbacked Pistons73c4,716$3,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,251.229458.5%172 W · 122 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf963…0637backed Pistons53c4,712$2,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,214.434742.6%20 W · 27 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x51d9…cb1abacked Hawks44c4,600$2,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,023.9713743.8%60 W · 77 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3e4…9241backed Pistons55c4,545$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,045.453432.4%11 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid+21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb433…7705backed Hawks16c4,500$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7103036.7%11 W · 19 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+25%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Pistons50c4,414$2,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,185.3548944.2%216 W · 273 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…9871backed Pistons71c4,413$3,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,301.0222846.1%105 W · 123 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Pistons52c4,411$2,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,135.859,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8956…755fbacked Pistons73c4,243$3,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,143.2520951.7%108 W · 101 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Pistons51c4,240$2,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,077.4528850.3%145 W · 143 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Hawks43c4,000$1,718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,71880146.4%372 W · 429 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Pistons50c4,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0001,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3a3…c2f9backed Pistons51c4,000$2,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,960333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3de6…405cbacked Hawks44c3,850$1,677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,676.8143453.2%231 W · 203 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Hawks23c3,698$838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$837.812,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x50dd…c186backed Hawks44c3,646$1,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,604.412138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Hawks16c3,621$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.541,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe427…4c44backed Pistons52c3,433$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,632.518951.7%46 W · 43 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Pistons52c3,373$1,754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,619.0948938.7%189 W · 300 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Hawks52c3,372$1,753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7531,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.