NBA · resolved market
Pistons vs. Hawks: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d9cbc9823f103a9c918368ab0cff1e18fa09665f1804407145d3eec8252b14d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,704
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,193
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,704 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 19,960$10,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,060.88 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 52c | 6,667$3,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,466.67 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Over | 48c | 5,720$2,746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,974.37 | 724 | 50.7%367 W · 357 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 46c | 5,000$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,700 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae8…c2a8backed Over | 47c | 4,964$2,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,630.83 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4667…cab0backed Over | 51c | 3,885$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,885.43 | 133 | 55.6%74 W · 59 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3414…067abacked Over | 54c | 3,166$1,709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,456.18 | 315 | 38.1%120 W · 195 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 48c | 2,917$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 49c | 2,282$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,110.27 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…6f30backed Over | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffad…87fdbacked Over | 48c | 1,458$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.33 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Under | 47c | 1,055$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.85 | 278 | 40.6%113 W · 165 L | -22.5wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e97…7680backed Over | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 47c | 787$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.11 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Over | 54c | 650$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85e2…0980backed Over | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.04 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…d851backed Over | 55c | 554.49$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.52 | 274 | 43.1%118 W · 156 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 52c | 400$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 49c | 399.99$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Over | 47c | 351.87$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.49 | 417 | 42%175 W · 242 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 332.96$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.74 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 46c | 324.47$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.53 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 137$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.78 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb69…c773backed Over | 52c | 125$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 131 | 48.9%64 W · 67 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef39…6ff3backed Over | 51c | 121.2$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Under | 46c | 116$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.36 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 46c | 92.59$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.59 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Over | 49c | 90$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x806c…3381backed Over | 54c | 81$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…73bcbacked Over | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79c3…81e3backed Over | 47c | 62.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.93 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x591a…aec2backed Under | 46c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc65…19a0backed Over | 53c | 54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 260 | 44.6%116 W · 144 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Under | 48c | 52.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 302 | 44%133 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c7…7070backed Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 54c | 46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 51c | 40.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ead…16d3backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…33bfbacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 100 | 63%63 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1c…2be4backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -25%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 415 | 56.9%236 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc76…d76dbacked Under | 47c | 23.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…5c00backed Over | 53c | 19.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pistons vs. Hawks: O/U 228.5this page
- 1H Spread: Hawks (-0.5)Pistons won
- Pistons vs. HawksPistons won
- Pistons vs. Hawks: 1H MoneylinePistons won
- Pistons vs. Hawks: O/U 226.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Hawks: O/U 227.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Hawks: O/U 229.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Hawks: O/U 230.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Hawks: O/U 231.5Over won
- Spread: Hawks (-1.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-2.5)Pistons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.