TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

China Taiwan · resolved market

Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 6 and 10 seconds on October 30, 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$182,846
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$188,656

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $182,846 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 285 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbebb…2655backed Yes0c20,374$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa754…ebb7backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b20…ee55backed Yes1c10,000$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.9230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1765…a60bbacked Yes1c9,423$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No56c6,003$3,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,629.34450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-19.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd25…b2afbacked Yes0c5,750$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2213…84c1backed Yes2c5,465$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14b5…a40fbacked Yes51c3,938$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5bd…169abacked Yes5c3,662$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.9980%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes11c3,461$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No54c3,026$1,624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,402.393928.2%11 W · 28 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-51.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1773…1727backed Yes1c2,763$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed No36c2,405$873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,531.71785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.39per pick46cpaid+89.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x94a4…6356backed Yes46c2,365$1,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,085.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d5a…ad91backed Yes1c2,333$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes8c1,884$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.76425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick14cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc77…c035backed No48c1,833$882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$951.04666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick68cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00b1…c88fbacked Yes59c1,682$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x682c…ef07backed Yes60c1,679$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4058…8b1cbacked No46c1,228$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$664.22540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-26.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23dc…8908backed Yes59c1,050$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Yes48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70ca…fc4bbacked Yes55c982.47$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0f6…f699backed No47c945.41$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.35475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+27.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x02d3…d671backed Yes45c885.09$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.38425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51c8…5c6bbacked Yes64c857.53$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x60cc…f0dfbacked Yes53c830$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.95250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+153.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x927a…4eaebacked Yes52c772.64$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes4c749.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0351…2858backed Yes60c724.21$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x68db…e12bbacked Yes42c684.68$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b9…ec17backed Yes58c684.06$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb94…b5c4backed Yes55c639.48$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.6930%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd9c…7a3bbacked Yes47c637.56$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1600…df49backed Yes57c628.8$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b6c…63d7backed Yes61c615.15$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x801d…6a23backed Yes52c582.51$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27f7…ff6bbacked No50c571.02$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e0f…fdf7backed Yes47c551.6$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5820…83f8backed Yes59c505.62$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8465…6bbdbacked No51c499.95$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No59c495.88$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.544325.6%11 W · 32 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-48.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No50c492.22$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.432445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x63cd…7e34backed Yes64c468.75$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No56c444.02$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.025345.3%24 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0898…b311backed Yes48c378.91$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9332…0f89backed Yes42c373.47$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf5d…70e1backed No57c353.24$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-11.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9308…83b2backed Yes45c350$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3940…9e72backed Yes59c349.56$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0234…62dabacked Yes52c346.16$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid+204%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd166…666ebacked Yes46c340$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.4425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid+108.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d05…aee5backed Yes41c337.03$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.3333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-44.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b19…2477backed Yes59c335.9$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed No51c312.46$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.29475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick38cpaid+50.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1172…ac19backed No54c309.26$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.262100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+65.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes45c300$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135850%4 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+24.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed No41c300$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177475%3 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.46per pick29cpaid+179.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed Yes44c298.17$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.58714.3%1 W · 6 L-3.2wins-0.45per pick60cpaid-69.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6213…9648backed Yes46c289.37$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.11333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+81.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16a8…7686backed Yes49c287.67$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+92.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7fa…44e5backed Yes57c281.14$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3df1…72e7backed Yes38c277.69$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+42.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc49…0062backed Yes16c272.64$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.99520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa070…c103backed Yes55c270.77$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Yes59c254.64$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd37…c36abacked No54c250$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec81…b674backed Yes51c250$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3a5…83dbbacked Yes46c250$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf2c…8c84backed Yes46c248.49$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes43c245.5$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.473225%8 W · 24 L-7.5wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-65.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xf6a5…98d0backed Yes42c236.64$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+108.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2948…c872backed Yes48c228.76$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6304…cdd7backed Yes49c220$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed No55c217.25$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.765100%5 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+125.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa71a…e4e2backed No53c213.24$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1be6…512dbacked Yes58c205.47$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e16…c5e8backed Yes44c204.75$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.63425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid+31.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c07…7d26backed Yes49c202.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+131%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1980…ae9bbacked Yes52c200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e2b…53a0backed Yes49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9840%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes38c200$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x027c…60f2backed Yes51c200$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-34.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d45…97f4backed Yes50c199.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cb8…5e8fbacked No44c199.99$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1033…d851backed Yes51c195.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e6d…ed98backed Yes62c194.09$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4667…cab0backed Yes51c193.51$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes52c192.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x087a…a510backed Yes52c190.75$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7efd…c159backed Yes54c190$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9646…3bc4backed Yes55c183.18$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6918…b67ebacked Yes45c182.91$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8149…f490backed Yes55c181.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12a7…9b0abacked Yes42c178.56$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3eba…0237backed Yes57c175.47$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa557…d95cbacked No56c174.2$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.03666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick68cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6314…2e9abacked Yes48c170$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+177.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x172e…21d6backed Yes59c168.83$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa326…4556backed Yes58c163.79$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.