China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 6 and 10 seconds on October 30, 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d7d53e61458bf5a25ae58ad7a33b05feac30e89e7d3267e5d82114cab7bc8bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $182,846
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $188,656
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $182,846 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 285 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbebb…2655backed Yes | 0c | 20,374$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa754…ebb7backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…ee55backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1765…a60bbacked Yes | 1c | 9,423$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 56c | 6,003$3,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,629.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd25…b2afbacked Yes | 0c | 5,750$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…84c1backed Yes | 2c | 5,465$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14b5…a40fbacked Yes | 51c | 3,938$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bd…169abacked Yes | 5c | 3,662$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.99 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes | 11c | 3,461$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 54c | 3,026$1,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,402.39 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1773…1727backed Yes | 1c | 2,763$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 36c | 2,405$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,531.71 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.39per pick | 46cpaid | +89.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x94a4…6356backed Yes | 46c | 2,365$1,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,085.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5a…ad91backed Yes | 1c | 2,333$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 8c | 1,884$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 48c | 1,833$882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951.04 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00b1…c88fbacked Yes | 59c | 1,682$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…ef07backed Yes | 60c | 1,679$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…8b1cbacked No | 46c | 1,228$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23dc…8908backed Yes | 59c | 1,050$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Yes | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ca…fc4bbacked Yes | 55c | 982.47$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 47c | 945.41$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02d3…d671backed Yes | 45c | 885.09$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51c8…5c6bbacked Yes | 64c | 857.53$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Yes | 53c | 830$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +153.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927a…4eaebacked Yes | 52c | 772.64$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 4c | 749.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0351…2858backed Yes | 60c | 724.21$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked Yes | 42c | 684.68$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b9…ec17backed Yes | 58c | 684.06$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb94…b5c4backed Yes | 55c | 639.48$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9c…7a3bbacked Yes | 47c | 637.56$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…df49backed Yes | 57c | 628.8$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6c…63d7backed Yes | 61c | 615.15$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…6a23backed Yes | 52c | 582.51$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…ff6bbacked No | 50c | 571.02$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0f…fdf7backed Yes | 47c | 551.6$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5820…83f8backed Yes | 59c | 505.62$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8465…6bbdbacked No | 51c | 499.95$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 59c | 495.88$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.54 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 50c | 492.22$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.43 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63cd…7e34backed Yes | 64c | 468.75$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 444.02$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.02 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0898…b311backed Yes | 48c | 378.91$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9332…0f89backed Yes | 42c | 373.47$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5d…70e1backed No | 57c | 353.24$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9308…83b2backed Yes | 45c | 350$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3940…9e72backed Yes | 59c | 349.56$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0234…62dabacked Yes | 52c | 346.16$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +204%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd166…666ebacked Yes | 46c | 340$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…aee5backed Yes | 41c | 337.03$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b19…2477backed Yes | 59c | 335.9$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed No | 51c | 312.46$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1172…ac19backed No | 54c | 309.26$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 41c | 300$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.46per pick | 29cpaid | +179.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Yes | 44c | 298.17$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.58 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.2wins | -0.45per pick | 60cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6213…9648backed Yes | 46c | 289.37$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16a8…7686backed Yes | 49c | 287.67$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fa…44e5backed Yes | 57c | 281.14$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df1…72e7backed Yes | 38c | 277.69$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc49…0062backed Yes | 16c | 272.64$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa070…c103backed Yes | 55c | 270.77$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Yes | 59c | 254.64$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…c36abacked No | 54c | 250$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec81…b674backed Yes | 51c | 250$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a5…83dbbacked Yes | 46c | 250$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2c…8c84backed Yes | 46c | 248.49$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 43c | 245.5$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.47 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -7.5wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a5…98d0backed Yes | 42c | 236.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2948…c872backed Yes | 48c | 228.76$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6304…cdd7backed Yes | 49c | 220$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed No | 55c | 217.25$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.76 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +125.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa71a…e4e2backed No | 53c | 213.24$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1be6…512dbacked Yes | 58c | 205.47$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e16…c5e8backed Yes | 44c | 204.75$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c07…7d26backed Yes | 49c | 202.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +131%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…ae9bbacked Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2b…53a0backed Yes | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…60f2backed Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…97f4backed Yes | 50c | 199.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb8…5e8fbacked No | 44c | 199.99$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…d851backed Yes | 51c | 195.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6d…ed98backed Yes | 62c | 194.09$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4667…cab0backed Yes | 51c | 193.51$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes | 52c | 192.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x087a…a510backed Yes | 52c | 190.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…c159backed Yes | 54c | 190$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9646…3bc4backed Yes | 55c | 183.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6918…b67ebacked Yes | 45c | 182.91$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8149…f490backed Yes | 55c | 181.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12a7…9b0abacked Yes | 42c | 178.56$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eba…0237backed Yes | 57c | 175.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 56c | 174.2$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.03 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6314…2e9abacked Yes | 48c | 170$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x172e…21d6backed Yes | 59c | 168.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa326…4556backed Yes | 58c | 163.79$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 6 and 10 seconds on October 30, 2025?this page
- Will Trump and Xi not shake hands on October 30, 2025?No won
- Will Trump and Xi shake hands for 10 seconds or more on October 30, 2025?Yes won
- Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 2 and 6 seconds on October 30, 2025?No won
- Will Trump and Xi shake hands for less than 2 seconds on October 30, 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.