China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Trump and Xi shake hands for less than 2 seconds on October 30, 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8fff19ee3b3236eab94771532713dc1dfb2fcf811b8d737ec0d61ebecfe8084
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $107,144
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,147
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,144 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b20…ee55backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2b…53a0backed Yes | 2c | 4,000$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,621$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.18 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +4.6wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +58%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes | 2c | 3,560$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 3,240$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 4c | 1,915$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa904…6407backed Yes | 5c | 1,823$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…c498backed Yes | 10c | 1,818$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 1c | 1,796$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +5.0wins | +0.20per pick | 24cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,776$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5a…ad91backed Yes | 1c | 1,684$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc49…0062backed Yes | 1c | 1,355$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f4…a42fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,177$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e1…3cf3backed Yes | 16c | 1,119$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff76…9c05backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…7301backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa40…8b4fbacked Yes | 3c | 702.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x174b…569dbacked Yes | 6c | 676.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…78cbbacked Yes | 3c | 665.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed Yes | 3c | 612.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02d3…d671backed Yes | 3c | 593.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…6548backed Yes | 3c | 521.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7235…b86bbacked Yes | 3c | 459.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34a…8251backed Yes | 3c | 427.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…1d86backed Yes | 5c | 396.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f06…39c7backed Yes | 4c | 349.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaac7…c894backed Yes | 4c | 338.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07ca…740abacked Yes | 6c | 337.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb20b…8da0backed Yes | 6c | 315.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae38…41c9backed Yes | 5c | 310.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…4449backed Yes | 5c | 298.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf54…cdcabacked Yes | 5c | 240.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x618f…f2f3backed Yes | 15c | 214.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c7…8fb6backed Yes | 5c | 202.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump and Xi shake hands for less than 2 seconds on October 30, 2025?this page
- Will Trump and Xi not shake hands on October 30, 2025?No won
- Will Trump and Xi shake hands for 10 seconds or more on October 30, 2025?Yes won
- Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 2 and 6 seconds on October 30, 2025?No won
- Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 6 and 10 seconds on October 30, 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.