China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Trump and Xi not shake hands on October 30, 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xccc26c1ed0afddf3a1c9b9bee5bea00f1ab71cd9ec910d571c5588275a4eccf3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $159,462
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $144,743
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $159,462 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbebb…2655backed Yes | 0c | 23,860$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc49…0062backed Yes | 1c | 6,972$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a4…5214backed Yes | 1c | 6,250$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff76…9c05backed Yes | 2c | 5,988$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 3,991$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.55 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 3c | 3,729$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 1c | 3,525$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +5.0wins | +0.20per pick | 24cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5a…ad91backed Yes | 1c | 2,537$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc52c…6732backed Yes | 6c | 2,394$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 2,375$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…d04ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,345$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…49a8backed Yes | 2c | 2,061$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,974$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2b…53a0backed Yes | 1c | 1,900$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe591…9fc8backed Yes | 6c | 1,728$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,710$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.89 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +43%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes | 1c | 1,643$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6860…ef1fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,326$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 4c | 1,310$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80ea…f25fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,209$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0283…e7d3backed Yes | 2c | 1,160$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f06…39c7backed Yes | 3c | 1,151$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f1…11eebacked Yes | 4c | 999.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e0…e2c1backed Yes | 5c | 976.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01b…e951backed Yes | 3c | 938.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +121.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x675a…0551backed Yes | 3c | 749.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb94…b5c4backed Yes | 2c | 707.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes | 2c | 699.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd36e…f9adbacked Yes | 5c | 630.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 4c | 609.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +4.6wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +58%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdf87…2955backed Yes | 4c | 527.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…4b6bbacked Yes | 5c | 483.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b87…6a47backed Yes | 5c | 456.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28c6…2e08backed Yes | 4c | 447.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34a…8251backed Yes | 2c | 445.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b71…f840backed Yes | 4c | 424.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a11…5dd3backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +4.2wins | +0.42per pick | 28cpaid | +177.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cd…b6dbbacked Yes | 5c | 396.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…1d86backed Yes | 5c | 366.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5d…70e1backed Yes | 3c | 363.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…3727backed Yes | 5c | 335.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6903…06e1backed Yes | 5c | 333.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +100%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…fc2bbacked Yes | 5c | 294.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa40…8b4fbacked Yes | 8c | 257.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df1…72e7backed Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump and Xi not shake hands on October 30, 2025?this page
- Will Trump and Xi shake hands for 10 seconds or more on October 30, 2025?Yes won
- Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 2 and 6 seconds on October 30, 2025?No won
- Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 6 and 10 seconds on October 30, 2025?No won
- Will Trump and Xi shake hands for less than 2 seconds on October 30, 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.