TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

China Taiwan · resolved market

Will Trump and Xi shake hands for 10 seconds or more on October 30, 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$139,246
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$143,265

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $139,246 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 218 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5172…0581backed No2c6,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6f1…11eebacked Yes70c5,083$3,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,531250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No60c3,707$2,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,241.93450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-19.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No79c3,406$2,674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,674.323928.2%11 W · 28 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-51.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x02d3…d671backed Yes22c2,947$644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,303.11425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ebf…bf3abacked Yes23c2,189$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,689.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+337.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74a9…0dc7backed Yes24c2,148$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,627.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+312.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Yes46c1,946$890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,056.14475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick38cpaid+50.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked No20c1,800$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d5a…ad91backed No1c1,752$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb4b…acc5backed Yes25c1,521$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,140.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+300.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3b5…bef4backed No73c1,400$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes19c1,381$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,113.062250%11 W · 11 L+4.6wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+58%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xee17…6ea1backed Yes29c1,359$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$964.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe75a…5a83backed Yes35c1,352$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$877.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+184.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6213…9648backed Yes18c1,348$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,100.27333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+81.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd34a…8251backed No2c1,185$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0805…31c0backed Yes14c1,160$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$994.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.86per pick14cpaid+599.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b56…539dbacked Yes26c1,160$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$859.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+286.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No73c1,134$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$833.352445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No19c1,052$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.88425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick14cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fd4…0865backed Yes19c1,033$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$840.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+435.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e02…bfcebacked Yes32c1,013$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$689.74250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+56.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x60a4…5214backed No67c1,010$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdaa…8420backed Yes20c1,000$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8001100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+400%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc331…4eafbacked Yes22c999.98$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$779.98250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ca1…3378backed Yes16c825$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$689.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+510%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No79c800$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6343225%8 W · 24 L-7.5wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-65.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xcc77…c035backed No78c790.08$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.37666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick68cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes26c781.26$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.74325.6%11 W · 32 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-48.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Yes23c779.97$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+332.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes18c774.39$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+461.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No15c750$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.5137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf845…f3a8backed Yes27c749.93$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+275%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0a1…fb90backed Yes16c749.16$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$628.82333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick8cpaid+107.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb779…ab22backed No76c741.57$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.41988.9%8 W · 1 L+3.0wins+0.33per pick56cpaid+87.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No77c677.09$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.785345.3%24 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed Yes20c669.54$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.275100%5 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+125.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb348…db0fbacked Yes32c609.94$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+215.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2a0…8a19backed Yes19c608.41$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.81520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick9cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7107…0ff8backed No74c603.32$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e16…c5e8backed Yes19c601.59$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.84425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid+31.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed No75c599.98$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd032…5136backed No77c537.02$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x282d…25d8backed Yes20c500$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4001100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+400%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb52b…b156backed Yes21c468.02$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+368%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c07…7d26backed Yes22c461.9$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+131%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed No70c443.87$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.71250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+200.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb01b…e951backed Yes23c443.8$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+121.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15c3…24a2backed Yes14c441.01$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.27250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xac8c…415cbacked No10c434$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.08650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4058…8b1cbacked No80c422.97$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.58540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-26.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd166…666ebacked Yes12c420$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.6425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid+108.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb3d…ca88backed Yes26c413.96$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.39250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+96.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa34e…c38fbacked Yes24c412.54$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+321%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes19c399$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.19977.8%7 W · 2 L+3.3wins+0.36per pick42cpaid+103.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8b4d…812ebacked Yes26c380.78$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.78333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick14cpaid+26.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x928c…331ebacked Yes15c368.31$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+567.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e2b…d586backed Yes28c353.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.77250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+76.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60cc…f0dfbacked Yes20c352.54$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.05250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+153.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc49…0062backed Yes23c346.28$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.73520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc98b…7578backed Yes25c344.12$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+294%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5207…686bbacked Yes20c342$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.442584%21 W · 4 L+9.7wins+0.39per pick45cpaid+94.5%equal weight72+0.19 edge/pick
0xd89b…7945backed Yes23c329.83$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.971338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-1.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb59c…9b66backed Yes30c328.11$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.11250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+64.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbea…e2b0backed Yes19c320$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.3250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+163.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0c1…e861backed Yes21c310$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+138.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes23c300$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231850%4 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+24.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x81d8…dc2bbacked Yes14c300$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+257.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes15c300$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2551741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1eb0…bb08backed Yes26c298.29$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+282.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab8e…3d89backed Yes19c297.36$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.36450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+66.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe975…524bbacked Yes24c292.57$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+318%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3df1…72e7backed Yes23c290.4$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.4333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+42.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93c6…90d0backed Yes25c287.72$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+300%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbdc…3d54backed Yes23c281.56$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+333.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06a9…3b80backed Yes18c279.99$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+455.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3683…68dbbacked No78c272.62$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.9450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-30.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc2d…5684backed Yes24c265.52$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+317.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40c4…adbebacked Yes20c255.82$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+411.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14cf…594ebacked Yes20c255$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+123.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c10…186dbacked Yes24c244.14$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+308.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01b8…56c2backed Yes11c236.36$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.36250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+372.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2368…2411backed Yes21c234.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+368.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc14…433ebacked Yes25c209.99$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+292.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1dd9…7c5fbacked Yes24c208.23$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.23250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+108.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xba5a…870bbacked Yes29c204.8$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+241.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe640…70bebacked Yes19c204.78$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.78250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+162.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No74c200$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1481625%4 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+100.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x290f…7e47backed No70c200$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes21c200$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.51030%3 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes16c200$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168475%3 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.46per pick29cpaid+179.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xff03…7c3bbacked Yes16c200$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1349…b7fabacked Yes16c200$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa91a…72d6backed Yes16c200$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1691100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+545.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f27…989dbacked Yes17c196.88$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+488.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x16a8…7686backed Yes26c192.31$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.31250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+92.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes21c190.48$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.48333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa557…d95cbacked No75c189.94$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.99666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick68cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0234…62dabacked Yes11c182.38$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.38333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid+204%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.