China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Trump and Xi shake hands for 10 seconds or more on October 30, 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb69364c52de4aef94f27264bdcf6120c7e5096f67cd995f3795d571aa1399785
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $139,246
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $143,265
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $139,246 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 218 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5172…0581backed No | 2c | 6,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f1…11eebacked Yes | 70c | 5,083$3,552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,531 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 60c | 3,707$2,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,241.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 79c | 3,406$2,674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,674.32 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02d3…d671backed Yes | 22c | 2,947$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,303.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ebf…bf3abacked Yes | 23c | 2,189$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,689.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +337.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74a9…0dc7backed Yes | 24c | 2,148$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,627.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +312.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Yes | 46c | 1,946$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056.14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 20c | 1,800$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5a…ad91backed No | 1c | 1,752$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4b…acc5backed Yes | 25c | 1,521$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,140.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b5…bef4backed No | 73c | 1,400$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 19c | 1,381$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,113.06 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +4.6wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +58%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee17…6ea1backed Yes | 29c | 1,359$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$964.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe75a…5a83backed Yes | 35c | 1,352$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +184.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6213…9648backed Yes | 18c | 1,348$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34a…8251backed No | 2c | 1,185$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0805…31c0backed Yes | 14c | 1,160$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$994.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +599.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b56…539dbacked Yes | 26c | 1,160$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +286.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 73c | 1,134$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$833.35 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 19c | 1,052$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…0865backed Yes | 19c | 1,033$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +435.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e02…bfcebacked Yes | 32c | 1,013$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a4…5214backed No | 67c | 1,010$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdaa…8420backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…4eafbacked Yes | 22c | 999.98$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…3378backed Yes | 16c | 825$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +510%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 79c | 800$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -7.5wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 78c | 790.08$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.37 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 26c | 781.26$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.7 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed Yes | 23c | 779.97$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +332.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes | 18c | 774.39$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +461.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 15c | 750$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…f3a8backed Yes | 27c | 749.93$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +275%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a1…fb90backed Yes | 16c | 749.16$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 8cpaid | +107.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed No | 76c | 741.57$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.41 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.33per pick | 56cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 677.09$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.78 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 20c | 669.54$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.27 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +125.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb348…db0fbacked Yes | 32c | 609.94$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +215.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a0…8a19backed Yes | 19c | 608.41$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.81 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7107…0ff8backed No | 74c | 603.32$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e16…c5e8backed Yes | 19c | 601.59$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed No | 75c | 599.98$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd032…5136backed No | 77c | 537.02$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x282d…25d8backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb52b…b156backed Yes | 21c | 468.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +368%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c07…7d26backed Yes | 22c | 461.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +131%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 70c | 443.87$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +200.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01b…e951backed Yes | 23c | 443.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +121.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15c3…24a2backed Yes | 14c | 441.01$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac8c…415cbacked No | 10c | 434$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…8b1cbacked No | 80c | 422.97$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd166…666ebacked Yes | 12c | 420$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3d…ca88backed Yes | 26c | 413.96$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34e…c38fbacked Yes | 24c | 412.54$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +321%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 19c | 399$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.19 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.36per pick | 42cpaid | +103.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4d…812ebacked Yes | 26c | 380.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x928c…331ebacked Yes | 15c | 368.31$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +567.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2b…d586backed Yes | 28c | 353.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Yes | 20c | 352.54$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +153.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc49…0062backed Yes | 23c | 346.28$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc98b…7578backed Yes | 25c | 344.12$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +294%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 20c | 342$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.44 | 25 | 84%21 W · 4 L | +9.7wins | +0.39per pick | 45cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 72+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xd89b…7945backed Yes | 23c | 329.83$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.97 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb59c…9b66backed Yes | 30c | 328.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbea…e2b0backed Yes | 19c | 320$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +163.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c1…e861backed Yes | 21c | 310$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +138.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes | 23c | 300$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81d8…dc2bbacked Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb0…bb08backed Yes | 26c | 298.29$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +282.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 19c | 297.36$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe975…524bbacked Yes | 24c | 292.57$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +318%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df1…72e7backed Yes | 23c | 290.4$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93c6…90d0backed Yes | 25c | 287.72$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbdc…3d54backed Yes | 23c | 281.56$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +333.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…3b80backed Yes | 18c | 279.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3683…68dbbacked No | 78c | 272.62$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2d…5684backed Yes | 24c | 265.52$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +317.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40c4…adbebacked Yes | 20c | 255.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +411.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14cf…594ebacked Yes | 20c | 255$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +123.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c10…186dbacked Yes | 24c | 244.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +308.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01b8…56c2backed Yes | 11c | 236.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +372.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2368…2411backed Yes | 21c | 234.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +368.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc14…433ebacked Yes | 25c | 209.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +292.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd9…7c5fbacked Yes | 24c | 208.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +108.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…870bbacked Yes | 29c | 204.8$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +241.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe640…70bebacked Yes | 19c | 204.78$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +162.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 74c | 200$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +100.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x290f…7e47backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.46per pick | 29cpaid | +179.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff03…7c3bbacked Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1349…b7fabacked Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa91a…72d6backed Yes | 16c | 200$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +545.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f27…989dbacked Yes | 17c | 196.88$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +488.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16a8…7686backed Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa976…5c43backed Yes | 21c | 190.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 75c | 189.94$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0234…62dabacked Yes | 11c | 182.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +204%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump and Xi shake hands for 10 seconds or more on October 30, 2025?this page
- Will Trump and Xi not shake hands on October 30, 2025?No won
- Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 2 and 6 seconds on October 30, 2025?No won
- Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 6 and 10 seconds on October 30, 2025?No won
- Will Trump and Xi shake hands for less than 2 seconds on October 30, 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.