TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7eef…81b8

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
64
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: NBA, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 54 out of 100; worst Lol at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT2650%13 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.95
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$2,637Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+41.5%+$1,094.22
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$228Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$227.84
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$959Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$959
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$142.96
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.9
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$640Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+30.9%+$197.95
Lakers vs. Thunderbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
76ers vs. Celticsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$145Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$355
Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$153Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$152.55
Timberwolves vs. Nuggetsbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$19
Lakers vs. Rocketsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$36.5
Celtics vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Cavaliers vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+300%+$37.5
Raptors vs. Cavaliersbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Raptors vs. Cavaliersbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Magic vs. 76ersbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.59
Heat vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$17.5
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo not be traded?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+78.7%+$17.86
Thunder vs. Timberwolvesbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$81.5
Pacers vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST+26.6%+$4.2
Lakers vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+53.8%+$7
Rockets vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST+98.7%+$74.5
Hornets vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$7.2
Thunder vs. Pacersbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT+37%+$4.05
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-33.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$214Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$214
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$240Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$160
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$65.47
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$134.9
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$28
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+204.7%+$124.46
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+25%+$24.59
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.4
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.15
All 9 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Jul 4, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
F1 — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lewis Hamilton win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$618Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+50.5%+$312.56
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,313Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,312.9
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$49
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$2,305Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+26.9%+$620.5
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.29
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$1,175Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$1,175.04
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,447Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+34.2%+$494.79
All 8 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Nov 9, 2025, EST520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-71.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Lol — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+266.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$1,080Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+632.2%+$6,825.18
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
All 2 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Oct 30, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Sep 30, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+49.3%+$16.5
Will Gold close below $4000 at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$397Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$396.82
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Oct 13, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.6
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$155.26
All 2 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.