Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x338b0af5b71c84e457865d5ebe9c7d97d7b6e49c751ba59fce1e5c455235b9a9

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Sep 30, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $338,468
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $254,754

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $338,468 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 209 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9994…03ddbacked Yes	0c	90,926$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190	112	4.5%5 W · 107 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	1c	30,001$292 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$292.03	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	2c	19,548$334 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$333.71	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	1c	17,397$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.29	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No	75c	6,132$4,576 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,555.21	185	31.4%58 W · 127 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-36%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1032…77f1backed Yes	6c	5,983$348 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$347.85	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	23c	5,667$1,307 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,306.67	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x28d5…8433backed Yes	23c	5,172$1,188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,187.96	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	20cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	36c	4,940$1,787 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,787.2	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30b6…0d6dbacked Yes	42c	4,300$1,809 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,808.68	63	14.3%9 W · 54 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2be3…688fbacked Yes	62c	3,501$2,162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,161.63	34	20.6%7 W · 27 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No	57c	2,997$1,700 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,296.98	68	19.1%13 W · 55 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	3c	2,966$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.94	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5172…0581backed Yes	9c	2,696$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.94	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+2.0wins	+0.18per pick	9cpaid	+321.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0976…704cbacked Yes	32c	2,657$847 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$847.44	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	9c	2,089$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.38	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	56c	1,973$1,100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$873.35	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3aa0…1bf1backed No	56c	1,934$1,077 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$857.46	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.16per pick	56cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac38…f21ebacked Yes	27c	1,701$465 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$465	45	24.4%11 W · 34 L	-4.8wins	-0.11per pick	35cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	31c	1,600$493 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$493.23	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d5d…6be6backed No	74c	1,381$1,022 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$358.56	45	40%18 W · 27 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	+25.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa82d…f5c0backed Yes	44c	1,378$601 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$601.25	36	19.4%7 W · 29 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0b8…225dbacked No	68c	1,377$942 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$435.3	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.23per pick	52cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	16c	1,360$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.24	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x881a…8d6dbacked Yes	4c	1,282$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.66	92	29.3%27 W · 65 L	+3.9wins	+0.04per pick	25cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1daf…6b7fbacked Yes	78c	1,277$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.8wins	-0.78per pick	78cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes	36c	1,263$455 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$455.43	153	13.1%20 W · 133 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91ac…215dbacked Yes	31c	1,210$376 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$375.8	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	30cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	7c	1,180$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.06	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Yes	27c	1,142$310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$310	417	18%75 W · 342 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	9c	1,088$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.57	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b28…0f58backed Yes	1c	1,059$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.44	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-51.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8981…ce82backed No	67c	1,053$710 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$343.3	181	63%114 W · 67 L	+4.1wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	39c	1,043$412 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$411.88	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes	29c	1,018$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.25	232	17.7%41 W · 191 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	32c	942.39$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299.57	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed Yes	15c	926$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.83	26	23.1%6 W · 20 L	+2.8wins	+0.11per pick	12cpaid	+179.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x26db…7abcbacked Yes	17c	903.85$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	61	19.7%12 W · 49 L	-6.8wins	-0.11per pick	31cpaid	-55.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed No	73c	829.89$604 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$225.52	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	20c	829.21$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.71	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc5d…3deabacked Yes	9c	820.02$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	+1.5wins	+0.07per pick	22cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	11c	820$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.36	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5a6…6991backed Yes	65c	809.49$529 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$528.56	78	16.7%13 W · 65 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	16c	735.22$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.98	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f49…7458backed No	69c	720.25$497 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$223.18	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb438…b113backed Yes	16c	707.64$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.19	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.10per pick	24cpaid	-74%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	12c	702.22$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.88	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdb6b…23b0backed Yes	26c	692.39$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.99	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	+153.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe09a…d020backed Yes	26c	689.09$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.71	30	30%9 W · 21 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	26cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f26…1f12backed Yes	27c	637.73$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.09	135	17%23 W · 112 L	-6.9wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-56.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	11c	619.03$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.03	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd822…3127backed Yes	23c	616.86$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.54	89	24.7%22 W · 67 L	+4.9wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+25.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	32c	615.61$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.39	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked No	75c	519.98$390 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$130.26	209	73.2%153 W · 56 L	+16.3wins	+0.08per pick	65cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes	22c	514.55$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.65	246	18.7%46 W · 200 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	41c	457.37$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.7	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ed1…6cf0backed Yes	7c	447.92$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No	61c	432.69$264 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$168.95	169	45%76 W · 93 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	29c	419$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.32	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf643…3900backed Yes	52c	401.62$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210.3	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb169…7aa7backed Yes	12c	382.71$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.47	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58f4…12a9backed Yes	19c	382.25$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.1	94	23.4%22 W · 72 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6d82…7d33backed No	79c	378.76$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.76	35	20%7 W · 28 L	-2.9wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-65.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x25f3…0a98backed Yes	6c	375.05$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.97	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	+5.9wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	21c	362.32$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.99	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes	31c	325.42$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	135	19.3%26 W · 109 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed No	76c	301.04$228 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.85	312	42.9%134 W · 178 L	+20.0wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2256…b932backed Yes	25c	285.86$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.15	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-48.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8808…75a8backed No	55c	282.24$157 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$125.6	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.45per pick	55cpaid	+80.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59e1…4252backed Yes	44c	281.36$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-1.6wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8bce…c476backed Yes	7c	278.14$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.47	78	23.1%18 W · 60 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4beb…ab8ebacked Yes	45c	273.91$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.44	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.45per pick	45cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c22…9717backed Yes	9c	271.37$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.26	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes	19c	267.57$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.92	207	17.4%36 W · 171 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4db0…6c7ebacked No	56c	252.92$142 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110.96	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.44per pick	56cpaid	+78.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd751…1950backed No	61c	236.9$144 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.81	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.39per pick	61cpaid	+64.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfea4…c640backed Yes	48c	232.19$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.71	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.48per pick	48cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7183…69c9backed Yes	18c	229.94$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.43	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe415…eec9backed Yes	25c	229.6$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.4	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b29…dea8backed Yes	42c	229.04$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.02	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.42per pick	42cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb5a…3965backed Yes	7c	208.09$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.99	218	10.1%22 W · 196 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-66.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	19c	202.99$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.7	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf545…5987backed Yes	49c	200.1$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.93	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No	77c	200$154 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46	426	28.2%120 W · 306 L	-38.2wins	-0.09per pick	37cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc981…a75dbacked Yes	26c	199.99$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.73	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-1.2wins	-0.11per pick	20cpaid	-78.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x057d…6eddbacked Yes	31c	191.08$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	+1.3wins	+0.07per pick	25cpaid	+38.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fda…8858backed Yes	49c	183.84$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	4	50%2 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2b58…53fdbacked Yes	16c	183.03$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.97	26	34.6%9 W · 17 L	+2.1wins	+0.08per pick	26cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x12c6…8908backed Yes	11c	180$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.34	33	15.2%5 W · 28 L	-2.9wins	-0.09per pick	24cpaid	-55.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x798f…cef0backed Yes	25c	171.18$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.96	430	17%73 W · 357 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5261…b9c7backed Yes	60c	167.32$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.63	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.60per pick	60cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	8c	166.75$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.61	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes	6c	160$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.08	192	2.1%4 W · 188 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-83.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x93c4…7599backed Yes	14c	159.14$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	230	17%39 W · 191 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e6b…8115backed Yes	16c	155.96$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.8	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fc0…843dbacked Yes	50c	155.4$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.7	41	26.8%11 W · 30 L	+2.3wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	23c	150.4$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.97	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6684…95d1backed Yes	10c	144.83$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	45cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x08b2…4cefbacked Yes	62c	144.46$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.62per pick	62cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event