Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca5fbb380a32b3a5e1bc7c4c0a3d72a4cacdf6983f7dcf06c43332b173ae4397

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Sep 30, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $257,640
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $117,057

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $257,640 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	1c	51,095$324 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$323.52	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	2c	16,241$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245.26	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	5c	8,401$398 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$398.4	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes	6c	8,004$485 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$485.48	120	15%18 W · 102 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad4a…ddb8backed Yes	1c	5,865$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.44	23	30.4%7 W · 16 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30b6…0d6dbacked Yes	2c	5,300$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118	63	14.3%9 W · 54 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	5,276$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.12	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	5c	5,236$272 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$271.84	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x28d5…8433backed Yes	4c	5,219$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	20cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	4,076$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.58	2,160	3.9%85 W · 2,075 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes	1c	3,639$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.97	46	10.9%5 W · 41 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fc0…843dbacked Yes	6c	3,053$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.06	41	26.8%11 W · 30 L	+2.3wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	4c	2,420$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.5	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	3c	2,396$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.91	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2256…b932backed Yes	2c	2,106$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-48.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	3c	1,984$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.99	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	1,800$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.3	781	8.7%68 W · 713 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2be3…688fbacked Yes	3c	1,573$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.9	34	20.6%7 W · 27 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	4c	1,532$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.65	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	1c	1,500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	6c	1,318$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.87	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes	2c	1,249$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.98	68	19.1%13 W · 55 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e59…a17cbacked Yes	1c	1,222$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.22	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-51.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	1,210$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.89	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	4c	1,200$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.58	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbc5d…3deabacked Yes	1c	1,036$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.55	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	+1.5wins	+0.07per pick	22cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Yes	11c	1,000$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	221	19.9%44 W · 177 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa789…fb63backed Yes	5c	1,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	61	13.1%8 W · 53 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2958…0c6dbacked Yes	10c	942.1$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.18	84	13.1%11 W · 73 L	-5.3wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-75.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes	1c	785.84$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.22	171	5.3%9 W · 162 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8635…16d1backed Yes	6c	518$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.91	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79ae…b9ffbacked Yes	3c	513.34$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.95	85	18.8%16 W · 69 L	+2.8wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes	6c	439.95$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.56	153	13.1%20 W · 133 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes	5c	400$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	135	19.3%26 W · 109 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	6c	312.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed Yes	6c	310.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.04	89	24.7%22 W · 67 L	-8.0wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x87d5…fe30backed Yes	4c	309.31$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-67.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	8c	308.87$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15f1…0593backed Yes	8c	300$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	26	30.8%8 W · 18 L	+1.5wins	+0.06per pick	25cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4dea…9e90backed Yes	6c	290$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.84	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.14per pick	11cpaid	+24.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	11c	229.95$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.5	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e25…09fbbacked Yes	6c	214.88$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.89	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.7wins	+0.08per pick	4cpaid	+23.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes	5c	208.3$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.42	169	45%76 W · 93 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6684…95d1backed Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	45cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	7c	199.63$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.59	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e2d…ac85backed Yes	7c	193$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.74	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x19af…dd83backed Yes	12c	173.58$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	63	20.6%13 W · 50 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadeb…b761backed Yes	6c	168.8$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdfd9…5dffbacked Yes	14c	142.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+1.6wins	+0.18per pick	37cpaid	+25.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x400c…781ebacked Yes	18c	112.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	13c	104$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.52	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	430	27%116 W · 314 L	+7.1wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5638…5e50backed Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	41	17.1%7 W · 34 L	-2.0wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeee2…c260backed Yes	16c	80$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	125	23.2%29 W · 96 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event