Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16c2ef0c4204c3cb5f223d35e2e1956843d9ca41bbf32909d5a607d0ba40cd3b

Rebuilt 8 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Sep 30, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $166,964
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $35,844

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $166,964 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	1c	32,960$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.12	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	1c	17,075$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.49	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes	0c	7,333$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	46	10.9%5 W · 41 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	6,474$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.19	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	2c	5,100$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.8	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	3,772$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.65	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9263…1999backed Yes	0c	3,682$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.01	98	1%1 W · 97 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2fc0…843dbacked Yes	2c	3,543$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.14	41	26.8%11 W · 30 L	+2.3wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	2c	3,195$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.91	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes	12c	3,082$372 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$372.23	120	15%18 W · 102 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	1c	2,750$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.5	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30b6…0d6dbacked Yes	6c	2,300$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.32	63	14.3%9 W · 54 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	2,280$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.6	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	1c	1,866$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.29	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	1,722$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.03	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	2c	1,131$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes	1c	1,024$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.82	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-66.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa789…fb63backed Yes	2c	1,000$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	61	13.1%8 W · 53 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	2c	928.62$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.06	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	1c	811.45$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes	3c	746.62$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.06	153	13.1%20 W · 133 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadeb…b761backed Yes	4c	690.32$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.09	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0942…0155backed Yes	3c	651.72$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	24	0%0 W · 24 L	-2.0wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e25…09fbbacked Yes	2c	591.44$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.58	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.7wins	+0.08per pick	4cpaid	+23.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	14c	450$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	3c	379.52$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes	6c	341.87$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	135	19.3%26 W · 109 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6fb…32e7backed Yes	16c	341.01$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.15	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-1.8wins	-0.10per pick	27cpaid	-69.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x15f1…0593backed Yes	5c	300$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	26	30.8%8 W · 18 L	+1.5wins	+0.06per pick	25cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5638…5e50backed Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	41	17.1%7 W · 34 L	-2.0wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes	14c	72.22$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.11	68	19.1%13 W · 55 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x798f…cef0backed Yes	17c	60$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	430	17%73 W · 357 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x400c…781ebacked Yes	20c	51$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event