Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a89d9a91dabcb2e3ca7f8b943794b0b57a831403386b9c396628a620f438002

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Sep 30, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $267,866
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $138,649

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $267,866 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	2c	39,123$622 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$621.76	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	1c	26,500$261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$261	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	5c	11,362$551 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$550.78	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c5…0166backed Yes	4c	8,849$376 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$376.48	49	12.2%6 W · 43 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-71%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes	8c	8,584$688 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$688.06	120	15%18 W · 102 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0976…704cbacked Yes	16c	5,289$870 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$870.43	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes	9c	4,684$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$399.95	153	13.1%20 W · 133 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	6c	4,678$281 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280.65	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	11c	3,847$415 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$415.07	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x30b6…0d6dbacked Yes	17c	3,761$626 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$625.97	63	14.3%9 W · 54 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes	5c	3,500$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.24	171	5.3%9 W · 162 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	5c	3,331$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.81	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2be3…688fbacked Yes	10c	3,085$317 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$317.14	34	20.6%7 W · 27 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	8c	2,706$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.42	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e59…a17cbacked Yes	20c	2,672$534 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$534.07	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-51.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	6c	2,654$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.44	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2fc0…843dbacked Yes	17c	2,616$436 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$436.13	41	26.8%11 W · 30 L	+2.3wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	9c	2,527$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.12	185	31.4%58 W · 127 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-36%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	1c	2,000$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	10c	1,570$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.51	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	10c	1,337$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.71	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26db…7abcbacked Yes	8c	1,222$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	61	19.7%12 W · 49 L	-6.8wins	-0.11per pick	31cpaid	-55.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	8c	1,206$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.2	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	3c	1,098$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.66	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	6c	1,072$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.52	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	10c	1,000$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.68	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes	9c	1,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	232	17.7%41 W · 191 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa789…fb63backed Yes	4c	1,000$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	61	13.1%8 W · 53 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	8c	860.43$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.87	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	3c	818.85$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.78	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	8c	800$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.83	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	15c	752.05$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.71	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes	8c	702.52$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.63	207	17.4%36 W · 171 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2958…0c6dbacked Yes	5c	698.91$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	84	13.1%11 W · 73 L	-5.3wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-75.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	2c	689.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.3	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	80c	689.98$552 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$138.09	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbc5d…3deabacked Yes	7c	684.98$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.42	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	+1.5wins	+0.07per pick	22cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	17c	641.98$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.02	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	2c	610.53$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.13	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	7c	604.42$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.61	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd018…4b19backed Yes	27c	601.28$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	+29%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4dea…9e90backed Yes	9c	560$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.66	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.14per pick	11cpaid	+24.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8db…fbc8backed Yes	4c	552.59$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	9c	537.05$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes	9c	500$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.5	68	19.1%13 W · 55 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	202	26.7%54 W · 148 L	+8.0wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes	12c	491.19$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.23	46	10.9%5 W · 41 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51d6…3836backed Yes	6c	479.56$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.69	150	6%9 W · 141 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	+4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x28d5…8433backed No	76c	473.41$360 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$113.79	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	20cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	13c	461.17$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes	19c	408.04$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.24	246	18.7%46 W · 200 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	20c	406$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.39	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21d9…797cbacked Yes	15c	349.99$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	32	25%8 W · 24 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa60f…6c4bbacked Yes	16c	310.11$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.04	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	7c	305$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.3	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	4c	300$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	72c	300$216 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.85	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes	14c	300$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.98	340	17.1%58 W · 282 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	14c	300$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.45	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79ae…b9ffbacked Yes	10c	291.9$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.53	85	18.8%16 W · 69 L	+2.8wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3fc…1e14backed Yes	18c	285.63$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	60	38.3%23 W · 37 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x881a…8d6dbacked Yes	18c	247.84$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.56	92	29.3%27 W · 65 L	+3.9wins	+0.04per pick	25cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x19af…dd83backed Yes	10c	246.33$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	63	20.6%13 W · 50 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16c6…31b5backed Yes	5c	225$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.13	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8fe9…78cabacked Yes	9c	223.68$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes	13c	220$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.47	439	33%145 W · 294 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe58e…2a67backed Yes	10c	198.9$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x069b…5bf1backed Yes	7c	198$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.06	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ecb…e7d8backed Yes	28c	196.63$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	24cpaid	-26%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b4e…0432backed Yes	15c	193.66$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.07	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	20c	180.28$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.18	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3eb…5eb8backed Yes	7c	159.42$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6684…95d1backed Yes	13c	158.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	45cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Yes	13c	154.31$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.47	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	+1.2wins	+0.07per pick	10cpaid	+236.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9944…b035backed Yes	13c	150.94$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	36cpaid	-61%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8949…5e21backed No	75c	139.43$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.89	48	60.4%29 W · 19 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	60cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc9a2…7f83backed Yes	13c	137.39$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	102	20.6%21 W · 81 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-41.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes	22c	128.63$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.29	135	19.3%26 W · 109 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb0d…59d0backed Yes	24c	114.69$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-81.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb5a…3965backed Yes	15c	113.41$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.58	218	10.1%22 W · 196 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-66.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfd9…5dffbacked Yes	18c	111.11$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+1.6wins	+0.18per pick	37cpaid	+25.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5638…5e50backed Yes	18c	100.78$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	41	17.1%7 W · 34 L	-2.0wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes	18c	100$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.96	430	27%116 W · 314 L	+7.1wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15f1…0593backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	26	30.8%8 W · 18 L	+1.5wins	+0.06per pick	25cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c83…60d0backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x59e1…4252backed No	79c	100$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-1.6wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2140…5790backed No	70c	100$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	10	70%7 W · 3 L	+1.9wins	+0.19per pick	51cpaid	+23%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	15c	94.35$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.84	503	19.5%98 W · 405 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x057d…6eddbacked Yes	16c	90.38$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.1	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	+1.3wins	+0.07per pick	25cpaid	+38.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeee2…c260backed Yes	17c	86.97$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.6	125	23.2%29 W · 96 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x5067…6d69backed Yes	21c	80$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	37	29.7%11 W · 26 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6ae…c6e0backed Yes	26c	70$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.88	52	13.5%7 W · 45 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b2c…8258backed Yes	16c	70$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.06	42	35.7%15 W · 27 L	+3.1wins	+0.07per pick	28cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3493…40afbacked Yes	38c	65.96$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	62	41.9%26 W · 36 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf87c…55b9backed Yes	21c	65$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.65	40	22.5%9 W · 31 L	-2.7wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed No	76c	59.44$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.43	89	24.7%22 W · 67 L	-8.0wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd78c…ca14backed Yes	23c	48.28$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	50	42%21 W · 29 L	+6.2wins	+0.12per pick	30cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6dc7…f296backed Yes	24c	45.22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.04	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.16per pick	51cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x890d…782cbacked Yes	36c	41.84$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	60	21.7%13 W · 47 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3a5…877dbacked Yes	26c	40$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.49	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event