Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26fa9f50697a7354c981696051c9a3daa7ecfed832bc5f6f8bd3522f44212971

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Sep 28, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $250,701
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $131,196

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $250,701 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	0c	35,000$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	0c	24,500$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1cde…b42abacked Yes	2c	15,000$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	85	8.2%7 W · 78 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	11,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	1c	8,192$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.91	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	2c	7,122$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.87	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	4c	5,590$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.98	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	1c	5,141$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.2	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25f3…0a98backed Yes	2c	4,985$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.85	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	+5.9wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	4,315$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.92	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	4,189$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.64	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb438…b113backed Yes	3c	4,068$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.84	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.10per pick	24cpaid	-74%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	3,267$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.92	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37dc…11edbacked Yes	2c	3,221$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+1.3wins	+0.18per pick	10cpaid	+54.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	3,052$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.16	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	1c	2,900$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.85	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes	1c	2,361$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.34	46	10.9%5 W · 41 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30b6…0d6dbacked Yes	5c	2,300$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.6	63	14.3%9 W · 54 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	3c	2,265$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.73	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	2c	2,064$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.38	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x966a…458dbacked Yes	1c	2,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	5c	2,000$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.79	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1032…77f1backed Yes	1c	1,900$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28d5…8433backed Yes	5c	1,897$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	20cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	1c	1,500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61f3…ada9backed Yes	1c	1,489$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.76	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.11per pick	9cpaid	-52.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36cb…63d0backed Yes	1c	1,250$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	282	11%31 W · 251 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2958…0c6dbacked Yes	1c	1,212$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.68	84	13.1%11 W · 73 L	-5.3wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-75.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes	2c	1,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	171	5.3%9 W · 162 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fe3…0a16backed Yes	2c	961.63$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.56	33	24.2%8 W · 25 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	2c	667.54$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.41	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91ac…215dbacked Yes	5c	515.7$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	30cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbaf2…7bacbacked Yes	2c	514.03$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.16	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.19per pick	48cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95b2…49aabacked Yes	6c	501.82$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.82	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.07per pick	33cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4dd…3ee2backed Yes	5c	473.52$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	-71.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Yes	5c	377.21$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.54	417	18%75 W · 342 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb70…b2e2backed Yes	4c	320$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.38	67	17.9%12 W · 55 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+22%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9994…03ddbacked Yes	6c	308.96$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	112	4.5%5 W · 107 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	5c	300$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.04	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4809…eec2backed Yes	4c	228.67$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.07	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event