Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6faf3661053d83e4fe9ef80fcbc2474b1b9988e7a93caddf54cce0721f77e6eb

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Sep 30, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $189,924
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $74,944

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $189,924 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	51,968$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.65	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	16,197$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.37	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	1c	12,121$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.27	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	9,781$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.86	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes	0c	8,378$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.53	46	10.9%5 W · 41 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	1c	4,513$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.58	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	1c	3,500$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.4	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes	1c	3,260$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.96	171	5.3%9 W · 162 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes	16c	3,000$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$480	120	15%18 W · 102 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fc0…843dbacked Yes	1c	2,911$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.23	41	26.8%11 W · 30 L	+2.3wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x30b6…0d6dbacked Yes	8c	2,602$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$208.32	63	14.3%9 W · 54 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	0c	2,300$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	2c	1,247$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	1c	1,152$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.87	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0942…0155backed Yes	2c	1,023$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	24	0%0 W · 24 L	-2.0wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51d6…3836backed Yes	2c	1,000$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	150	6%9 W · 141 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	+4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x990b…c30ebacked Yes	2c	631.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	25	4%1 W · 24 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	9cpaid	-78.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6fb…32e7backed Yes	20c	600$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-1.8wins	-0.10per pick	27cpaid	-69.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe07…d839backed Yes	10c	524.63$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.46	55	14.5%8 W · 47 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-56%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6de2…c71fbacked Yes	6c	499.85$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.99	94	11.7%11 W · 83 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x67b8…2449backed Yes	23c	261.54$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-1.8wins	-0.14per pick	29cpaid	-61.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes	15c	250$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.5	439	33%145 W · 294 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	9c	148.13$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.32	185	31.4%58 W · 127 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-36%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x798f…cef0backed Yes	9c	145.24$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	430	17%73 W · 357 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeee2…c260backed Yes	16c	120$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.6	125	23.2%29 W · 96 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x8981…ce82backed Yes	16c	86.36$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.82	181	63%114 W · 67 L	+4.1wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed Yes	15c	86.14$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.92	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8635…16d1backed Yes	15c	69$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.35	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No	79c	50$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.5	68	19.1%13 W · 55 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event