Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61629650d18869146df74e3fab6ddd78cd9dcac8241187c2ba05395e61270047

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Sep 30, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $248,046
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $97,581

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $248,046 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	65,606$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.42	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50a8…143fbacked Yes	0c	30,475$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.48	46	2.2%1 W · 45 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	1cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	13,900$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.1	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	0c	10,715$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.14	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	5,022$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.49	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bf8…2f73backed Yes	1c	5,000$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.24	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a0f…1244backed Yes	1c	5,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6eb3…2506backed Yes	1c	5,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2d90…0df4backed Yes	1c	5,000$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbdfa…4551backed Yes	1c	5,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaf89…1710backed Yes	1c	5,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6f78…fae2backed Yes	1c	5,000$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	3,424$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.06	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes	3c	3,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	120	15%18 W · 102 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30b6…0d6dbacked Yes	1c	2,300$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	63	14.3%9 W · 54 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x990b…c30ebacked Yes	2c	1,059$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	25	4%1 W · 24 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	9cpaid	-78.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa135…6085backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	47	12.8%6 W · 41 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-47%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked No	75c	631.59$473 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$158.16	209	73.2%153 W · 56 L	+16.3wins	+0.08per pick	65cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x798f…cef0backed Yes	3c	560$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.2	430	17%73 W · 357 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	5c	526$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.37	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6fb…32e7backed Yes	24c	516.67$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-1.8wins	-0.10per pick	27cpaid	-69.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x67b8…2449backed Yes	27c	222.92$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-1.8wins	-0.14per pick	29cpaid	-61.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	8c	177$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.62	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	10c	104.18$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.84	797	35.9%286 W · 511 L	-34.4wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x754f…4e38backed Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-64.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fc4…b930backed Yes	22c	68.18$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	18cpaid	-65.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event