TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,865,685
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,696,599

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,865,685 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0a85…fe9dbacked Yes22c255,459$57,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198,446.93823.7%9 W · 29 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+14.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes31c234,711$71,943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162,768.4137740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c72…dfb6backed No55c151,394$82,792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82,791.515141.2%21 W · 30 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes74c96,870$71,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,535.6151138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bcd…fa31backed No63c93,998$59,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59,596.181553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf06…2f58backed No0c90,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed No45c90,000$40,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,299.994257.1%24 W · 18 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+34.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked No37c88,122$32,948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,948.3640433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2be3…688fbacked No64c85,590$55,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55,015.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes79c80,180$63,739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,440.6119930.7%61 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Yes28c79,574$21,905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57,669.813823.2%32 W · 106 L+0.6wins0.00per pick23cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes15c79,410$11,577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67,832.136227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No78c78,473$61,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61,155.0835347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes63c69,988$43,808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,179.9448923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe07a…6adbbacked Yes29c68,462$19,968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,493.681118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.26per pick44cpaid-52.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes27c60,825$16,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,657.4442738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xda49…c716backed No0c60,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-63.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes42c50,955$21,394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,561.688143.2%35 W · 46 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce66…cc64backed No73c47,587$34,953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,953.043141.9%13 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-34.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf636…b088backed No9c45,306$3,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,979.971050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c9c…6824backed No80c44,628$35,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,507.26714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick40cpaid-75.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5273…d975backed Yes12c41,214$4,956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,258.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.52per pick15cpaid+293%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed No67c38,561$25,807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,806.534650%23 W · 23 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed No68c37,638$25,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,519.7619531.8%62 W · 133 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed No13c37,338$4,736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,736.186141%25 W · 36 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-14.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d73…bae7backed No76c36,053$27,247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,247.09540%2 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick67cpaid-18.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes44c35,580$15,810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,770.1231241.7%130 W · 182 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+66.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa4bc…026cbacked Yes28c35,386$9,936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,450.379930.3%30 W · 69 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-35.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd519…932cbacked Yes8c35,154$2,968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,186.361128.9%10 W · 102 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick14cpaid+149.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf104…b841backed No3c35,027$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-36.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa493…612ebacked Yes29c32,901$9,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,488.945042%21 W · 29 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Yes18c31,311$5,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,651.334022.5%9 W · 31 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick16cpaid+39.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa672…f083backed No2c30,784$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$690.25771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick48cpaid+44.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed No1c30,075$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.2443212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe103…59fdbacked No62c30,042$18,692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,692.073953.8%21 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+20.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e28…dc83backed Yes27c29,244$8,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,239.432429.2%7 W · 17 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick19cpaid+22%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1128…cfa5backed Yes24c29,042$6,851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,190.845616.1%9 W · 47 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-44.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66b8…b5f0backed Yes27c28,368$7,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,701.611838.9%7 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x738f…a6eebacked No1c27,973$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb8e…b243backed Yes25c27,657$6,903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,753.778845.5%40 W · 48 L+9.5wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+48.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xee69…05d0backed Yes23c27,000$6,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,917.442755.6%15 W · 12 L+4.4wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+40.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed Yes22c24,625$5,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,236.9121259.9%127 W · 85 L+21.8wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked No28c23,318$6,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,44220749.3%102 W · 105 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked No3c21,900$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.97142.3%30 W · 41 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e30…1e50backed No80c21,590$17,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,247.973237.5%12 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-36%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32d1…b949backed Yes15c20,904$3,227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,677.2110426%27 W · 77 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+101.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked No78c20,808$16,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,221.271643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Yes26c19,999$5,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,799.252142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No74c19,924$14,841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,841.2210150.5%51 W · 50 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes74c19,825$14,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,209.0520336.9%75 W · 128 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed No58c19,680$11,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,429.2138237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed No78c19,385$15,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,048.8310837%40 W · 68 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x169a…c46abacked Yes19c19,306$3,657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,648.961346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick32cpaid+35.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No72c19,142$13,826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,825.840828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed No3c19,048$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.8910634%36 W · 70 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-17.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4817…6bdbbacked No68c18,917$12,926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,925.62666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+39.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked No69c18,725$12,828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,828.1216246.3%75 W · 87 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8a00…8734backed No1c18,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid-40.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc658…b784backed Yes29c17,892$5,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,755.97542.7%32 W · 43 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-18.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6b9…de6dbacked No23c17,850$4,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,171714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick33cpaid-50.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd68…746abacked Yes24c17,513$4,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,331.465158.8%30 W · 21 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+36.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa5ad…be8cbacked Yes24c17,334$4,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,145.73875%6 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.35per pick40cpaid+87.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed No42c16,563$6,895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,894.7728427.8%79 W · 205 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb898…1288backed Yes9c16,048$1,371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,677.43714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick23cpaid+67.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x958c…4d8abacked Yes25c15,607$3,963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,644.17450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+34.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd46b…5dabbacked No75c15,306$11,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,506.2916743.7%73 W · 94 L+11.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes19c14,661$2,837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,823.9115232.9%50 W · 102 L+15.8wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+19.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa815…a3c3backed No66c14,447$9,516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,516.31040%4 W · 6 L-2.7wins-0.27per pick67cpaid-43.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3dfe…5f1ebacked No12c14,396$1,681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,681.021020%2 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-63.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xab19…4876backed Yes21c14,131$2,974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,156.963933.3%13 W · 26 L-6.0wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-30.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked No80c13,842$11,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,014.589145.1%41 W · 50 L-8.4wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-22.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed No80c13,820$11,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,005.799154.9%50 W · 41 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe797…2b36backed No29c13,449$3,838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,837.81714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-81.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7177…1252backed No60c13,231$7,927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,926.51862.5%5 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe071…f836backed No50c12,745$6,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,401.13246.9%15 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes31c12,251$3,771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,480.2926423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e7a…565dbacked Yes23c12,230$2,823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,407.744010%4 W · 36 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-71.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04da…fd89backed No17c12,017$2,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000.930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaec6…33f2backed No46c11,644$5,374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,373.811250%6 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-28.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No73c11,499$8,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,438.9518151.9%94 W · 87 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5ec…7b2ebacked No73c11,498$8,438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,438.161540%6 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-32.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0891…508abacked Yes9c11,470$1,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,393.14966.7%6 W · 3 L+3.8wins+0.42per pick24cpaid+251.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x50a0…f233backed No4c11,399$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.89100%0 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes37c11,392$4,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,168.5434440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4aa2…9593backed No1c11,360$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes24c11,336$2,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,576.453912.8%5 W · 34 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-55.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad87…6a86backed No24c11,131$2,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,659.61833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-48.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x63b1…1676backed No71c10,806$7,689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,688.53342.4%14 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c87…9bd4backed Yes25c10,608$2,652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,955.83050%15 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes14c10,517$1,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,077.1519639.8%78 W · 118 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fbe…819ebacked No75c10,401$7,779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,779.09520%1 W · 4 L-2.6wins-0.52per pick72cpaid-74%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x207d…7a98backed Yes41c10,298$4,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,114.72560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+25.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a82…2397backed No10c10,243$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc19d…865ebacked Yes16c10,096$1,643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,453.0617934.6%62 W · 117 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x497b…aba5backed No1c10,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.22per pick41cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x10fb…c66cbacked No2c10,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed No55c9,793$5,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,4324540%18 W · 27 L-10.5wins-0.23per pick63cpaid-38.7%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes23c9,140$2,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,992.0235819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x71f8…55ffbacked No6c9,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed No74c8,996$6,647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,646.556134.4%21 W · 40 L-5.4wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-42%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.