Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60918e364dd0c217c3c1608993c2dfea7f1cbe66791670add299e4e104192993
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,865,685
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,696,599
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,865,685 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a85…fe9dbacked Yes | 22c | 255,459$57,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198,446.9 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 31c | 234,711$71,943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162,768.41 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed No | 55c | 151,394$82,792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82,791.51 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 74c | 96,870$71,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,535.61 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…fa31backed No | 63c | 93,998$59,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59,596.18 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf06…2f58backed No | 0c | 90,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed No | 45c | 90,000$40,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,299.99 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 37c | 88,122$32,948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,948.36 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be3…688fbacked No | 64c | 85,590$55,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55,015.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 79c | 80,180$63,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,440.61 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 28c | 79,574$21,905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57,669.8 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 15c | 79,410$11,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67,832.1 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 78c | 78,473$61,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61,155.08 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 63c | 69,988$43,808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,179.94 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe07a…6adbbacked Yes | 29c | 68,462$19,968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48,493.68 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.26per pick | 44cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 27c | 60,825$16,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44,657.44 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda49…c716backed No | 0c | 60,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 42c | 50,955$21,394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,561.68 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce66…cc64backed No | 73c | 47,587$34,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,953.04 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf636…b088backed No | 9c | 45,306$3,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,979.97 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9c…6824backed No | 80c | 44,628$35,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,507.26 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5273…d975backed Yes | 12c | 41,214$4,956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,258.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 15cpaid | +293%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed No | 67c | 38,561$25,807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,806.53 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed No | 68c | 37,638$25,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,519.76 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 13c | 37,338$4,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,736.18 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d73…bae7backed No | 76c | 36,053$27,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,247.09 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 44c | 35,580$15,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,770.12 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bc…026cbacked Yes | 28c | 35,386$9,936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,450.37 | 99 | 30.3%30 W · 69 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 8c | 35,154$2,968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,186.36 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…b841backed No | 3c | 35,027$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked Yes | 29c | 32,901$9,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,488.94 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 18c | 31,311$5,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,651.33 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa672…f083backed No | 2c | 30,784$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed No | 1c | 30,075$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.24 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked No | 62c | 30,042$18,692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,692.07 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e28…dc83backed Yes | 27c | 29,244$8,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,239.43 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1128…cfa5backed Yes | 24c | 29,042$6,851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,190.84 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66b8…b5f0backed Yes | 27c | 28,368$7,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,701.61 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x738f…a6eebacked No | 1c | 27,973$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 25c | 27,657$6,903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,753.77 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +9.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee69…05d0backed Yes | 23c | 27,000$6,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,917.44 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed Yes | 22c | 24,625$5,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,236.91 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 28c | 23,318$6,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,442 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked No | 3c | 21,900$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.9 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e30…1e50backed No | 80c | 21,590$17,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,247.97 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…b949backed Yes | 15c | 20,904$3,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,677.21 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked No | 78c | 20,808$16,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,221.27 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Yes | 26c | 19,999$5,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,799.25 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 74c | 19,924$14,841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,841.22 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 74c | 19,825$14,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,209.05 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 58c | 19,680$11,429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,429.21 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed No | 78c | 19,385$15,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,048.83 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…c46abacked Yes | 19c | 19,306$3,657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,648.96 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 72c | 19,142$13,826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,825.8 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 3c | 19,048$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.89 | 106 | 34%36 W · 70 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4817…6bdbbacked No | 68c | 18,917$12,926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,925.62 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 69c | 18,725$12,828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,828.12 | 162 | 46.3%75 W · 87 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a00…8734backed No | 1c | 18,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 29c | 17,892$5,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,755.9 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked No | 23c | 17,850$4,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,171 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd68…746abacked Yes | 24c | 17,513$4,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,331.46 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ad…be8cbacked Yes | 24c | 17,334$4,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,145.73 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +87.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 42c | 16,563$6,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,894.77 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb898…1288backed Yes | 9c | 16,048$1,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,677.43 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958c…4d8abacked Yes | 25c | 15,607$3,963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,644.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked No | 75c | 15,306$11,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,506.29 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 19c | 14,661$2,837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,823.91 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…a3c3backed No | 66c | 14,447$9,516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,516.3 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfe…5f1ebacked No | 12c | 14,396$1,681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,681.02 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…4876backed Yes | 21c | 14,131$2,974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,156.96 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -6.0wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked No | 80c | 13,842$11,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,014.58 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 80c | 13,820$11,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,005.79 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe797…2b36backed No | 29c | 13,449$3,838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,837.81 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7177…1252backed No | 60c | 13,231$7,927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,926.51 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed No | 50c | 12,745$6,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,401.1 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 31c | 12,251$3,771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,480.29 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…565dbacked Yes | 23c | 12,230$2,823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,407.74 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04da…fd89backed No | 17c | 12,017$2,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec6…33f2backed No | 46c | 11,644$5,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,373.81 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 73c | 11,499$8,439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,438.95 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ec…7b2ebacked No | 73c | 11,498$8,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,438.16 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0891…508abacked Yes | 9c | 11,470$1,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,393.14 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +3.8wins | +0.42per pick | 24cpaid | +251.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x50a0…f233backed No | 4c | 11,399$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.89 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 37c | 11,392$4,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,168.54 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa2…9593backed No | 1c | 11,360$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 24c | 11,336$2,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,576.45 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad87…6a86backed No | 24c | 11,131$2,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,659.6 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63b1…1676backed No | 71c | 10,806$7,689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,688.5 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…9bd4backed Yes | 25c | 10,608$2,652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,955.8 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 14c | 10,517$1,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,077.15 | 196 | 39.8%78 W · 118 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbe…819ebacked No | 75c | 10,401$7,779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,779.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.6wins | -0.52per pick | 72cpaid | -74%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x207d…7a98backed Yes | 41c | 10,298$4,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,114.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a82…2397backed No | 10c | 10,243$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked Yes | 16c | 10,096$1,643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,453.06 | 179 | 34.6%62 W · 117 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed No | 1c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked No | 2c | 10,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed No | 55c | 9,793$5,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,432 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -10.5wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 23c | 9,140$2,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,992.02 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71f8…55ffbacked No | 6c | 9,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 74c | 8,996$6,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,646.55 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.