TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Raptors vs. Cavaliers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Cavaliersof Raptors, Cavaliers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,750,751
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,102,025

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,750,751 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,268 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb27…c56ebacked Raptors23c501,400$115,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115,321.9287144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Raptors0c447,418$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.356646.5%263 W · 303 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Cavaliers78c378,369$294,461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83,907.5266248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f28…266ebacked Cavaliers77c338,267$260,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77,801.323145.2%14 W · 17 L-4.6wins-0.15per pick60cpaid-25.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Raptors17c275,663$47,519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47,519.2936549.6%181 W · 184 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x777d…5143backed Raptors23c220,987$51,549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,548.5619754.3%107 W · 90 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+20.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Cavaliers80c136,414$108,623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,791.161,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Raptors23c71,786$16,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,510.7672648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Raptors16c70,000$11,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,199.9839842.5%169 W · 229 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Cavaliers77c59,770$46,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,603.613447.1%16 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Cavaliers77c49,310$37,969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,341.314533.1%48 W · 97 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-23%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16b1…968abacked Cavaliers77c49,310$37,969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,341.34143.9%18 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-20.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x163e…dc5bbacked Cavaliers77c49,310$37,969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,341.320758%120 W · 87 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8516…93a0backed Raptors21c40,581$8,562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,562.458035%28 W · 52 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Cavaliers77c38,730$30,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,726.1122458.9%132 W · 92 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Raptors25c37,350$9,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,161.0863746.6%297 W · 340 L-16.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Cavaliers76c35,665$27,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,502.1242645.5%194 W · 232 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc86c…6c37backed Raptors0c31,266$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Cavaliers77c30,732$23,738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,994.8185742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d30…fad8backed Raptors2c28,647$681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.739134.1%31 W · 60 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9410…ffcdbacked Raptors21c28,070$5,847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,847.194030%12 W · 28 L+0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c17…3844backed Raptors1c25,734$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.74953.1%26 W · 23 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Raptors24c22,204$5,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,343.182,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0045…5ac5backed Raptors23c22,000$5,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,059.951369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.21per pick48cpaid+62%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Raptors5c21,395$971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$970.8919033.7%64 W · 126 L+8.3wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+32.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7096…7f78backed Raptors24c20,579$4,939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,939.0265349.9%326 W · 327 L+20.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Cavaliers76c20,000$15,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,799.8848343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e1d…0c53backed Cavaliers79c16,449$12,953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,496.3311447.4%54 W · 60 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Cavaliers76c15,408$11,706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,701.451,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5635…24bbbacked Raptors1c15,041$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.9130%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8180…f4dabacked Cavaliers72c13,000$9,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,639.9943352.2%226 W · 207 L+19.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5dc…ec43backed Cavaliers77c12,808$9,862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,945.7969049.4%341 W · 349 L-30.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Cavaliers77c12,808$9,862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,945.791,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b52…568ebacked Cavaliers77c12,808$9,862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,945.794963.3%31 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Raptors23c12,318$2,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,825.054,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Raptors0c11,676$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.077211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8df7…36c4backed Cavaliers79c10,006$7,905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,101.22560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0979…8d9bbacked Cavaliers77c9,990$7,692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,297.7220352.7%107 W · 96 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6815…9edbbacked Raptors24c9,759$2,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,342.2520946.9%98 W · 111 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94bb…77eebacked Raptors13c9,030$1,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,167.6518930.7%58 W · 131 L-0.9wins0.00per pick31cpaid-15.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers79c8,887$7,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,848.738,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48d…5182backed Cavaliers77c8,876$6,834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,041.434671.7%33 W · 13 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+23%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x89bd…3f72backed Raptors24c8,813$2,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,115.0111243.8%49 W · 63 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Raptors24c8,772$2,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,065.2819937.2%74 W · 125 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Cavaliers73c8,728$6,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,331.3542348%203 W · 220 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fc6…1d96backed Raptors23c8,700$2,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000.971566.7%10 W · 5 L+3.6wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+73.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1607…79bebacked Raptors5c8,555$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.464719.1%9 W · 38 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick13cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fd9…544abacked Cavaliers77c8,325$6,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,914.761040%4 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.25per pick65cpaid-38.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Raptors23c8,000$1,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,84031644.6%141 W · 175 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Raptors22c8,000$1,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,729.9842640.4%172 W · 254 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x92b5…fec6backed Raptors24c7,953$1,909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,908.810747.7%51 W · 56 L+0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b1e…82c9backed Raptors24c7,953$1,909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,908.86243.5%27 W · 35 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Cavaliers76c7,500$5,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,799.988840.9%36 W · 52 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-27.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fd6…95e3backed Cavaliers76c7,317$5,564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,752.978050%40 W · 40 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Cavaliers78c7,184$5,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,573.81,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Raptors0c7,174$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.985502.5%14 W · 536 L+2.2wins0.00per pick2cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Raptors25c7,169$1,765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,765.099,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x418f…abf0backed Cavaliers76c6,900$5,244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,655.981080%8 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+65.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4924…f328backed Raptors18c6,673$1,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,180.2338143%164 W · 217 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x300c…7708backed Raptors11c6,428$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$714.276238.7%24 W · 38 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x512f…e2fdbacked Raptors23c6,200$1,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,425.98757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+36.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0159…db47backed Raptors3c6,110$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.29614.9%3 W · 58 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-76.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x919e…d215backed Raptors25c6,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5002729.6%8 W · 19 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+42.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Raptors1c5,695$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.495213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41f7…c4e4backed Raptors23c5,611$1,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,303.6535129.6%104 W · 247 L+1.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-7.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x40d2…312fbacked Cavaliers74c5,600$4,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,435.9628852.1%150 W · 138 L+1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Cavaliers79c5,545$4,381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,163.561,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a65…9142backed Cavaliers76c5,424$4,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,301.681060%6 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Raptors24c5,369$1,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,288.4412649.2%62 W · 64 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5746…06cfbacked Raptors23c5,080$1,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,144.291136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-36.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4309…7456backed Raptors23c5,010$1,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,152.361336.1%221 W · 392 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8bd…478fbacked Raptors20c4,980$994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994.2919443.3%84 W · 110 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x077c…76babacked Cavaliers77c4,842$3,744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,097.141353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd21…a494backed Cavaliers76c4,742$3,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,138.155246.2%24 W · 28 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+10%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdb…f0fdbacked Raptors23c4,600$1,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,057.981450%7 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xddc8…5608backed Cavaliers76c4,500$3,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,079.97666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+74.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe7e…6d00backed Raptors6c4,431$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.2111034.5%38 W · 72 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed Raptors24c4,374$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.8420945.5%95 W · 114 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd6b…91d6backed Cavaliers76c4,300$3,268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,031.97862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+56.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1d0…5a98backed Cavaliers77c4,157$3,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$956.094257.1%24 W · 18 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6dc…12ecbacked Raptors21c4,151$869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$868.793148.4%15 W · 16 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+46.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Raptors23c4,000$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$919.9924252.5%127 W · 115 L+18.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb886…6729backed Cavaliers76c4,000$3,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$959.981376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.24per pick53cpaid+51.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Cavaliers75c3,989$2,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$997.373253.1%17 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe49a…ff17backed Raptors24c3,977$954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$954.41861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+37.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8072…0ef3backed Raptors5c3,970$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.74623.9%11 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Raptors24c3,961$951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950.581,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc532…3b9dbacked Raptors23c3,935$905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905.03944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1520…0ddfbacked Cavaliers76c3,934$2,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$944.131963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd162…0d24backed Raptors28c3,887$1,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,088.434843.8%21 W · 27 L+4.8wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+33.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7d43…ce68backed Cavaliers77c3,842$2,959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$883.7417247.7%82 W · 90 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f43…c0c2backed Raptors2c3,834$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.423435.9%84 W · 150 L-9.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b77…ee2cbacked Cavaliers77c3,778$2,909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$869.013070%21 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2efb…18a6backed Cavaliers76c3,700$2,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$887.971464.3%9 W · 5 L+3.0wins+0.21per pick43cpaid+41.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6304…c7e5backed Raptors25c3,462$851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$850.977269.4%50 W · 22 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4699…5051backed Raptors24c3,436$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.63511.4%4 W · 31 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a4b…a0c7backed Raptors23c3,321$761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761.12638.5%10 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Raptors1c3,202$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8167911%75 W · 604 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7e8…5c8cbacked Raptors24c3,150$756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755.886152.5%32 W · 29 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Raptors23c3,000$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$690.0157950.1%290 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.