TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 234.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,063
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,566

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,063 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x96ac…61e8backed Under77c4,006$3,097 inLost-$3,096.951850%9 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x09d4…5f81backed Over25c2,417$604 inWon+$1,813.334626.1%12 W · 34 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-40%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over67c2,217$1,496 inWon+$721.882,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over32c1,307$421 inWon+$886.483,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Under73c670.96$487 inLost-$487.2734255.6%190 W · 152 L+28.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+36%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x357b…0b65backed Over74c666.18$492 inWon+$174.0227158.3%158 W · 113 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under69c637.95$442 inLost-$442.2945445.2%205 W · 249 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6832…831fbacked Over24c582.83$140 inWon+$442.5619246.4%89 W · 103 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x859d…b336backed Under63c523.66$327 inLost-$327.47955.6%5 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick67cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under75c495.28$371 inLost-$370.633,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Over40c479.6$194 inWon+$285.781,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Over17c465.6$79 inWon+$386.4593148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf58c…0b79backed Under53c460.19$243 inLost-$242.927150.7%36 W · 35 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x150c…cbb4backed Under40c241.55$96 inLost-$96.391233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-38%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x02f0…1a03backed Under10c200$20 inLost-$203420.6%7 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid+13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92fa…7d02backed Under40c173.41$69 inLost-$68.863844.7%17 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Over57c161.98$92 inWon+$69.713,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x098d…6cc2backed Under46c160.95$75 inLost-$74.542548%12 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Under74c137.6$102 inLost-$101.8427553.5%147 W · 128 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x061a…720bbacked Over25c133.74$33 inWon+$100.31728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Over73c102.77$75 inWon+$27.7559255.4%328 W · 264 L+23.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Over45c78.21$35 inWon+$43.237753.8%203 W · 174 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14c3…0262backed Under16c77.07$12 inLost-$12.339430.9%29 W · 65 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Over69c71.99$50 inWon+$22.3252861.9%327 W · 201 L+32.3wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Over69c71.99$50 inWon+$22.3246959.1%277 W · 192 L+28.6wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe3ee…373ebacked Under61c70.84$43 inLost-$43.2153250.4%268 W · 264 L-19.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb2cf…9a91backed Under74c59.06$44 inLost-$43.713161.3%19 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9e9…48dfbacked Under25c50$12 inLost-$12.52520%5 W · 20 L-5.1wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-62.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x31c8…9487backed Over50c46.17$23 inWon+$22.946277.4%48 W · 14 L+13.1wins+0.21per pick56cpaid+36.3%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed Under45c36.8$17 inLost-$16.7114860.1%89 W · 59 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9aad…74a0backed Under75c34.18$26 inLost-$25.6420%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x32eb…f531backed Over69c23.71$16 inWon+$7.356864.7%44 W · 24 L+8.4wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+21.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe22f…49b1backed Over60c21.89$13 inWon+$8.66771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+26.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c69…e671backed Over73c20.55$15 inWon+$5.556051.7%31 W · 29 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5db7…a264backed Under75c19.69$15 inLost-$14.77757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Over79c18.27$14 inWon+$3.7816867.3%113 W · 55 L+13.8wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+9.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.