TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Cavaliersof Cavaliers, Raptors
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,936
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,860

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,936 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x37c1…c53abacked Raptors45c4,132$1,859 inLost-$1,859.41,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Cavaliers55c2,145$1,181 inWon+$964.1863746.6%297 W · 340 L-16.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Cavaliers55c1,986$1,092 inWon+$893.759,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Raptors44c597.18$260 inLost-$260.053,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6815…9edbbacked Cavaliers56c434.64$243 inWon+$191.2420946.9%98 W · 111 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Raptors53c275.04$146 inLost-$145.7715543.2%67 W · 88 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc978…706bbacked Cavaliers56c216.13$121 inWon+$95.131953%169 W · 150 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Raptors44c153.52$68 inLost-$67.553,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd80…5ef4backed Cavaliers55c88.45$49 inWon+$39.811653.4%62 W · 54 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f22…0fb4backed Cavaliers55c44.23$24 inWon+$19.937853.4%202 W · 176 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2c8…d506backed Raptors44c43.93$19 inLost-$19.336241.9%26 W · 36 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Cavaliers55c43.79$24 inWon+$19.71,04851.7%542 W · 506 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa975…42eebacked Cavaliers56c43.46$24 inWon+$19.1253348.4%258 W · 275 L-8.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe76f…39fcbacked Cavaliers60c32.53$20 inWon+$13.0112050%60 W · 60 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a4d…4c76backed Cavaliers56c21.11$12 inWon+$9.298057.5%46 W · 34 L+7.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+20.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.