TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 222.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,620
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,689

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,620 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf58c…0b79backed Under51c942.88$485 inLost-$485.457150.7%36 W · 35 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6832…831fbacked Over76c603.41$459 inWon+$144.1719246.4%89 W · 103 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over56c512.66$287 inWon+$225.893,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Over49c493.61$242 inWon+$251.741,31747.8%629 W · 688 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff80…8cb5backed Under46c416.95$194 inLost-$193.574553.3%24 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf8f…273abacked Under34c412.53$140 inLost-$139.911952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over76c307.75$232 inWon+$75.345445.2%205 W · 249 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed Under40c200$80 inLost-$8041050.7%208 W · 202 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Over79c170.61$135 inWon+$35.1293148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4fc9…e444backed Under36c112$40 inLost-$40.325133.3%17 W · 34 L-6.0wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-37.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over48c107.79$52 inWon+$56.059,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under12c106.47$13 inLost-$12.7852230.3%158 W · 364 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e95…0fefbacked Over57c102.55$58 inWon+$44.1560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02ea…220cbacked Under20c94.45$19 inLost-$19.088826.1%23 W · 65 L-12.5wins-0.14per pick40cpaid-36.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over64c90.01$58 inWon+$32.42,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Over60c66.35$40 inWon+$26.8134255.6%190 W · 152 L+28.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+36%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Over60c54.87$33 inWon+$21.951,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed Over60c48.8$29 inWon+$19.5245542.4%193 W · 262 L-0.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfff…3d0ebacked Over68c40.6$27 inWon+$13.127572%54 W · 21 L+11.7wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+22%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Over69c36.5$25 inWon+$11.2537753.8%203 W · 174 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Over58c34.49$20 inWon+$14.491,53242.5%651 W · 881 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88ea…bb7ebacked Over63c27.76$18 inWon+$10.15250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Under43c26.56$11 inLost-$11.4261638.5%237 W · 379 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2494…17b3backed Under45c24.71$11 inLost-$11.123751.4%19 W · 18 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+29.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x70fc…ab12backed Over52c20.83$11 inWon+$1022143.4%96 W · 125 L-12.5wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-11.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.