TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Knicks vs. Spurs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Knicksof Knicks, Spurs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,768,517
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,830,645

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,768,517 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 5,168 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2643…39aebacked Knicks36c2,272,062$827,642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,444,419.792347.8%11 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6211…b89ebacked Spurs64c1,406,256$900,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900,004.048148.1%39 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd81e…e3d0backed Spurs64c1,002,538$641,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641,919.756445.3%29 W · 35 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e69…858dbacked Knicks35c706,308$245,508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460,800.261942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+38.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6db5…e279backed Knicks48c700,581$336,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364,239.775354.7%29 W · 24 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Knicks34c659,508$224,535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434,973.5164948.2%313 W · 336 L-3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xad9c…9889backed Knicks32c654,385$211,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443,074.7757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+53.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Spurs68c508,192$345,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345,227.7510944%48 W · 61 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Spurs60c467,466$278,928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278,928.4726753.2%142 W · 125 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6d6…be17backed Spurs65c384,615$250,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250,00010448.1%50 W · 54 L-7.3wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1136…0c2ebacked Spurs64c350,000$223,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222,999.973844.7%17 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+3.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe5b7…5ee3backed Knicks35c300,097$105,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195,063.0111333.6%38 W · 75 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3607…d3ffbacked Spurs79c270,623$213,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213,015.66250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Knicks38c267,434$101,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165,980.2585742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x157e…add7backed Spurs63c236,981$149,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149,992.67366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+149.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd65…ee96backed Spurs64c234,375$150,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150,0009725.8%25 W · 72 L-9.5wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-34.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd0ad…f568backed Spurs63c220,000$138,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138,599.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Knicks67c218,348$146,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72,179.6493148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5448…1a7bbacked Knicks41c216,873$87,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128,878.21366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+74.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37d3…709abacked Spurs21c168,341$35,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,349.252642.3%11 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+64.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x30e1…510bbacked Spurs73c160,582$117,247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117,246.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb915…8da5backed Spurs63c157,497$99,879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99,878.9710459.6%62 W · 42 L+8.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+23%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2c28…9e49backed Spurs48c156,969$75,557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75,556.861942.1%8 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick29cpaid+18%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x88a1…ad45backed Spurs63c154,598$97,397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97,396.865350.9%27 W · 26 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f41…8f27backed Knicks41c151,298$61,417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89,880.72850%4 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x61e0…4b62backed Knicks37c150,654$55,718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94,935.7252760%316 W · 211 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72d8…5213backed Spurs70c150,222$105,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105,155.472240.9%9 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-24%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Spurs56c150,218$84,701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84,700.91,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ec…e8f1backed Knicks36c135,739$48,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86,872.8924831.9%79 W · 169 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cd1…285dbacked Knicks36c135,696$49,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86,580.085347.2%25 W · 28 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6b1…78fdbacked Knicks35c134,400$47,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87,365.866651.5%34 W · 32 L+6.0wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+24.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Knicks37c130,799$47,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83,005.4625352.6%133 W · 120 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x531b…32b6backed Spurs65c120,000$78,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77,999.942347.8%11 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+28.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2cff…59dbbacked Knicks35c119,005$41,652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77,353.21475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+86.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Knicks49c116,606$57,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59,320.171,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Spurs64c115,000$73,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73,049.741,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5601…e1a5backed Spurs53c112,202$59,731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59,731.17250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+77.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa080…234fbacked Spurs68c109,992$74,895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74,894.6614842.6%63 W · 85 L-7.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Spurs65c100,000$65,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65,00049244.3%218 W · 274 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Spurs63c100,000$63,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62,999.9924650%123 W · 123 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3c7…c83bbacked Spurs63c100,000$63,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62,999.81333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-57.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94d7…bef5backed Spurs48c98,733$47,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47,082.3725925.9%67 W · 192 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe558…dcd2backed Spurs1c96,474$965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$964.749349.5%46 W · 47 L+5.9wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+22.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1610…ae49backed Knicks36c95,160$34,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60,902.531369.2%9 W · 4 L+4.9wins+0.38per pick31cpaid+105.7%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x1f28…266ebacked Spurs64c90,000$57,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57,6003145.2%14 W · 17 L-4.6wins-0.15per pick60cpaid-25.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Spurs64c84,605$54,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54,147.237355%205 W · 168 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe015…6ffdbacked Spurs62c84,275$51,943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,942.94540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef27…381bbacked Knicks36c83,333$30,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53,333.338452.4%44 W · 40 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa8b9…775dbacked Knicks36c80,680$29,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,635.56887.5%7 W · 1 L+4.2wins+0.52per pick35cpaid+135.4%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Spurs65c80,000$52,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52,00017251.7%89 W · 83 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Spurs63c79,996$50,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,397.639842.5%169 W · 229 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2805…76edbacked Spurs79c75,749$59,954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59,953.968439.3%33 W · 51 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1d…708bbacked Knicks37c75,369$27,886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,482.45100%5 W · 0 L+3.2wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+194.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Knicks37c71,208$26,309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,899.4189444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfea3…d227backed Spurs62c68,524$42,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,484.9815644.9%70 W · 86 L-9.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4bb2…1aa9backed Spurs8c63,743$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc71…d033backed Spurs73c60,000$43,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,499.81560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+37.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59e5…7a2bbacked Knicks65c59,565$38,889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,676.216152.5%32 W · 29 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid+4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Knicks29c52,655$15,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,521.4636023.1%83 W · 277 L-15.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-49.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x709e…66f5backed Knicks35c51,876$18,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,719.34860.4%29 W · 19 L+4.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+25%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Spurs64c51,824$33,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,167.11,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8660…93edbacked Spurs64c51,492$32,955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,954.72520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-57.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2061…8ec9backed Spurs64c51,162$32,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,832.786028.3%17 W · 43 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa722…c09bbacked Knicks30c50,533$15,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,478.372100%2 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+484.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x613b…823abacked Spurs78c47,667$37,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,314.8111344.2%50 W · 63 L-6.4wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd105…7b2cbacked Knicks36c46,622$17,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,621.622382.6%19 W · 4 L+8.7wins+0.38per pick45cpaid+97%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked Spurs52c46,100$24,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,097.0724159.8%144 W · 97 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x910e…8fc3backed Spurs44c45,811$20,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,005250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+117.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94e4…87e0backed Spurs43c42,263$18,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,054.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Knicks36c42,095$15,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,008.520155.7%112 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9868…64b0backed Knicks36c41,225$14,841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,3841361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick44cpaid+10.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8c77…4d42backed Knicks34c40,162$13,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,669.47650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+62.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bfe…2d74backed Spurs64c39,218$25,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,099.381546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7671…7244backed Spurs64c38,571$24,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,685.241361.5%8 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85bb…9adabacked Knicks30c38,428$11,361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,066.96666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+99.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0e3a…55babacked Spurs73c37,897$27,494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,493.95911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.29per pick40cpaid-79.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x3776…9bd9backed Knicks35c36,950$13,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,927.77560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+58.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa41c…fadebacked Knicks36c36,111$13,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,111.114252.4%22 W · 20 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+39%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7aa1…e126backed Knicks36c36,000$12,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,1301369.2%9 W · 4 L+3.2wins+0.25per pick44cpaid+53.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Knicks34c35,675$12,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,450.145076%38 W · 12 L+8.5wins+0.17per pick59cpaid+21.7%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Spurs64c35,000$22,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,299.962,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e1d…0c53backed Spurs64c32,000$20,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,352.0311447.4%54 W · 60 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x961f…a3e6backed Knicks56c31,642$17,756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,886.2560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Spurs1c31,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4205213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Spurs34c30,978$10,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,443.789851%50 W · 48 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x26b4…b8a9backed Spurs64c29,881$19,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,1246459.4%38 W · 26 L+5.1wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+11%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe532…29dcbacked Spurs65c29,739$19,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,330.5560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6754…e3bcbacked Spurs64c28,800$18,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,432250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x41e8…5b95backed Knicks36c28,384$10,218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,165.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1e6…e1c2backed Spurs64c28,000$17,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,92010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Spurs65c27,965$18,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,176.934,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3da4…367ebacked Spurs55c27,652$15,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,265.59425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid+255.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfec8…50f7backed Spurs73c27,358$20,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,063.425567.3%37 W · 18 L+6.2wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+24.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0d5a…3688backed Knicks36c26,919$9,691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,228.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd914…0d9abacked Knicks36c26,604$9,578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,026.841250%6 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-9.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2bf0…728fbacked Knicks22c26,427$5,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,727.27812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick27cpaid-42%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6911…5318backed Knicks32c25,830$8,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,488.362653.8%14 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+18.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x683d…43b4backed Knicks35c25,291$8,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,436.061338.5%5 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Spurs60c25,169$15,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,100.971,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed Spurs75c25,156$18,807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,806.512458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 106. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.