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NBA · resolved market

Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 198.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,763
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,678

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,763 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb170…354ebacked Over54c5,603$3,020 inLost-$3,020.01666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+42.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under48c2,875$1,375 inWon+$1,500.18,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Under37c2,340$854 inWon+$1,485.341,31747.8%629 W · 688 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0874…6277backed Under39c1,575$619 inWon+$955.181346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+67.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under51c712.49$364 inWon+$348.7468838.5%265 W · 423 L-26.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Under60c704.31$426 inWon+$278.5425045.6%114 W · 136 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+11.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over48c586$281 inLost-$281.2855251.3%283 W · 269 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Over52c482.07$252 inLost-$251.851,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under42c375$159 inWon+$216.259853.1%52 W · 46 L+9.3wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+8.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Over26c363.13$94 inLost-$94.418140.3%73 W · 108 L+24.4wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+60.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under46c236.37$108 inWon+$128.4752150.9%265 W · 256 L+18.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa11f…1252backed Under24c226.42$54 inWon+$172.0820247.5%96 W · 106 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf5e…95e3backed Under25c211.64$53 inWon+$158.7321046.2%97 W · 113 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Under35c208$73 inWon+$135.281,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x56ae…9badbacked Over27c200$54 inLost-$549438.3%36 W · 58 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61d3…189abacked Under22c198.23$44 inWon+$154.6221849.5%108 W · 110 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Over48c100$48 inLost-$4825340.3%102 W · 151 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b4c…1715backed Under40c100$40 inWon+$6016429.9%49 W · 115 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+24.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Over30c97.64$29 inLost-$29.0118941.8%79 W · 110 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x751f…e72cbacked Over16c93.75$15 inLost-$15250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-33.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb91c…ed66backed Under45c83.38$37 inWon+$465058%29 W · 21 L+8.2wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+42.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc308…7b09backed Under40c75$30 inWon+$4531222.1%69 W · 243 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+79.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Under37c72$27 inWon+$45.3632654.6%178 W · 148 L+22.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0193…6db1backed Over21c71.43$15 inLost-$153330.3%10 W · 23 L-4.2wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-32.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3a72…0a38backed Under43c67$29 inWon+$38.1916640.4%67 W · 99 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+13.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Under43c67$29 inWon+$38.191643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+16.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x00d4…4c46backed Under43c67$29 inWon+$38.1921242%89 W · 123 L+12.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+8.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x99f7…1a59backed Under43c67$29 inWon+$38.1923441.5%97 W · 137 L+13.6wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+6.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9ca2…088ebacked Under43c67$29 inWon+$38.191631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid+13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89b9…118ebacked Over62c43.26$27 inLost-$26.8271752%373 W · 344 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f12…effbbacked Under38c43.26$16 inWon+$26.82875%6 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+104.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed Under66c37.8$25 inWon+$12.9814264.8%92 W · 50 L+9.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x86b9…6d67backed Under58c34.14$20 inWon+$14.343894.7%36 W · 2 L+14.0wins+0.37per pick58cpaid+70.5%equal weight75+0.22 edge/pick
0x77de…e67abacked Over61c16.59$10 inLost-$10.081464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+31.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 106. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.