TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,029
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,134

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,029 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa710…23c4backed Yes50c5,000$2,500 inLost-$2,50032653.1%173 W · 153 L+19.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x036b…ead4backed No50c5,000$2,500 inWon+$2,5001392.3%12 W · 1 L+7.1wins+0.55per pick38cpaid+211.5%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0x21f5…c161backed Yes53c2,144$1,130 inLost-$1,13011440.4%46 W · 68 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+21.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9caf…e8bdbacked No49c1,501$731 inWon+$769.8433049.1%162 W · 168 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b66…336abacked No50c1,200$600 inWon+$60027746.6%129 W · 148 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed No42c582$244 inWon+$337.5679650.9%405 W · 391 L+63.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x19b6…b7cdbacked Yes55c440$242 inLost-$242250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd155…b79bbacked Yes50c400$200 inLost-$2001346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+22.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No39c398.48$155 inWon+$243.4517946.4%83 W · 96 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8383…7fbfbacked Yes61c390.9$238 inLost-$238.45540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed No49c225.38$110 inWon+$114.9478445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Yes50c221$111 inLost-$110.51,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes49c204.47$100 inLost-$99.9984443%363 W · 481 L-40.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd79c…9f33backed Yes50c201.78$101 inLost-$100.8912313%16 W · 107 L-8.2wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-60.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked No49c199.99$98 inWon+$101.9929346.4%136 W · 157 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa65c…509dbacked Yes50c198.04$100 inLost-$1002748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+3.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No43c125$54 inWon+$71.259853.1%52 W · 46 L+9.3wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+8.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x28b3…08e3backed Yes50c100.15$50 inLost-$503652.8%19 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9abc…636abacked No50c100$50 inWon+$501844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0a1…6daebacked Yes51c98.04$50 inLost-$5022442.9%96 W · 128 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed Yes51c96.61$49 inLost-$49.273557.1%20 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed No50c92.5$46 inWon+$46.251,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa00e…73fabacked No50c60$30 inWon+$3016951.5%87 W · 82 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed No50c50$25 inWon+$2566046.8%309 W · 351 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x60d2…4268backed No50c41$21 inWon+$20.5862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+31%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x86ee…511fbacked Yes51c40.2$20 inLost-$20.56145.9%28 W · 33 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb91c…ed66backed No43c39.61$17 inWon+$22.585058%29 W · 21 L+8.2wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+42.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Yes50c25$13 inLost-$12.510757%61 W · 46 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aeb…42d4backed Yes49c24.49$12 inLost-$1227539.6%109 W · 166 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4061…dde5backed Yes51c21.57$11 inLost-$11825%2 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-51.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf92e…d539backed No50c20$10 inWon+$102766.7%18 W · 9 L+5.7wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+51.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xcda0…a51abacked No50c20$10 inWon+$1029652.7%156 W · 140 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 106. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.