TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

1H Spread: Spurs (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Spursof Spurs, Knicks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,584
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,073

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,584 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3dfb…abafbacked Spurs51c5,000$2,550 inWon+$2,449.9514538.6%56 W · 89 L-12.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-22.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed Spurs51c1,952$1,000 inWon+$952.0813153.4%70 W · 61 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x70dc…1dfdbacked Spurs47c1,869$877 inWon+$991.361957.9%11 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x439c…8a28backed Knicks53c1,700$900 inLost-$900366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Knicks51c1,687$865 inLost-$8652,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf284…b9f9backed Knicks51c1,473$751 inLost-$751.4818651.1%95 W · 91 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Knicks49c1,426$699 inLost-$698.653,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Knicks49c1,362$663 inLost-$662.71,31747.8%629 W · 688 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd722…0564backed Spurs49c1,020$500 inWon+$520.41250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Knicks53c1,010$535 inLost-$534.614,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Knicks49c974.91$475 inLost-$475.41,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Knicks49c850$417 inLost-$416.55349.1%26 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x556c…93cebacked Knicks51c423.99$218 inLost-$217.724949%122 W · 127 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Knicks46c355.73$164 inLost-$163.6479650.9%405 W · 391 L+63.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Spurs46c347.44$160 inWon+$187.6211145.9%51 W · 60 L+7.7wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8004…d0f1backed Spurs51c256.69$131 inWon+$125.788055%44 W · 36 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe444…fa95backed Spurs49c248.73$122 inWon+$126.852356.5%13 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+43.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc470…c792backed Spurs46c217.39$100 inWon+$117.392441.7%10 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52be…801ebacked Knicks49c204.08$100 inLost-$100850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dd9…bfe8backed Knicks49c200$98 inLost-$9865762.3%409 W · 248 L+27.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x56ae…9badbacked Spurs49c200$98 inWon+$1029438.3%36 W · 58 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bf3…4f00backed Knicks49c159.41$78 inLost-$78.11366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+22.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Knicks31c134.89$42 inLost-$41.7418140.3%73 W · 108 L+24.4wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+60.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x9808…3cccbacked Spurs77c129.77$100 inWon+$29.773066.7%20 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0abb…d188backed Spurs50c106$53 inWon+$53333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Spurs48c93.6$45 inWon+$48.4784443%363 W · 481 L-40.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed Spurs46c79$37 inWon+$42.513747.4%65 W · 72 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Knicks54c60.6$33 inLost-$32.7241038%156 W · 254 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-20.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed Knicks55c59.06$32 inLost-$32.51560%9 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+12.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7a9…87e2backed Knicks49c57$28 inLost-$27.935133.3%17 W · 34 L-8.6wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-33.3%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x45d5…a7a0backed Spurs50c50$25 inWon+$2510545.7%48 W · 57 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Knicks55c50$27 inLost-$27.2510757%61 W · 46 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91ac…5ff3backed Knicks47c46.35$22 inLost-$21.785129.4%15 W · 36 L-7.8wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-30.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc376…a8e7backed Knicks54c42.59$23 inLost-$2331748.9%155 W · 162 L-12.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xed7d…5852backed Spurs49c40.82$20 inWon+$20.825637.5%21 W · 35 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+23%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xacb4…7595backed Knicks51c40.82$21 inLost-$20.8212540%50 W · 75 L-9.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-21.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5407…5bbdbacked Knicks55c40$22 inLost-$223548.6%17 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa415…6fb9backed Knicks55c30.99$17 inLost-$17.0526147.1%123 W · 138 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Knicks55c30$17 inLost-$16.51,15049.5%569 W · 581 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f18…d6cabacked Spurs73c27.4$20 inWon+$7.410656.6%60 W · 46 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9991…36b8backed Spurs40c26.45$11 inWon+$15.791872.2%13 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+28.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked Knicks49c26.24$13 inLost-$12.86785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.32per pick54cpaid+58.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Knicks53c23.3$12 inLost-$12.2833356.2%187 W · 146 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86b9…6d67backed Spurs73c20$15 inWon+$5.43894.7%36 W · 2 L+14.0wins+0.37per pick58cpaid+70.5%equal weight75+0.22 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 106. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.