TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 207.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,559
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,570

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,559 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1d60…453dbacked Over73c2,750$2,000 inLost-$2,00024159.8%144 W · 97 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Over4c1,998$80 inLost-$79.9276653.5%410 W · 356 L+65.5wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+15.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Over24c1,457$350 inLost-$349.6893148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under61c1,409$853 inWon+$556.228,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Under39c837.55$327 inWon+$510.071,31747.8%629 W · 688 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc308…7b09backed Over3c707.52$23 inLost-$22.5331222.1%69 W · 243 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+79.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Under25c600$150 inWon+$45079650.9%405 W · 391 L+63.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x036b…ead4backed Under31c427.04$132 inWon+$294.661392.3%12 W · 1 L+7.1wins+0.55per pick38cpaid+211.5%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Under49c303.8$150 inWon+$153.9264948.2%313 W · 336 L-3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Under26c294.26$77 inWon+$217.7511145.9%51 W · 60 L+7.7wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over51c271$138 inLost-$138.2155251.3%283 W · 269 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xddc4…0270backed Over54c185.15$100 inLost-$10027745.8%127 W · 150 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Under46c183.25$84 inWon+$98.9632654.6%178 W · 148 L+22.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1413…4bddbacked Over70c152.77$107 inLost-$10711259.8%67 W · 45 L-10.1wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-13.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcff6…521ebacked Over70c142.85$100 inLost-$100757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-1.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Over13c141.44$19 inLost-$18.6318140.3%73 W · 108 L+24.4wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+60.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over72c134.83$97 inLost-$97.0884443%363 W · 481 L-40.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e46…6346backed Over52c130$67 inLost-$67.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61d3…189abacked Under37c117.86$44 inWon+$74.2521849.5%108 W · 110 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Under48c101$48 inWon+$52.8625340.3%102 W · 151 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Over55c85.32$47 inLost-$46.818941.8%79 W · 110 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb91c…ed66backed Under25c79.2$20 inWon+$59.45058%29 W · 21 L+8.2wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+42.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under29c72.15$21 inWon+$51.521,39946.4%649 W · 750 L-13.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under29c70.62$20 inWon+$50.411,27747.2%603 W · 674 L-3.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2413…4216backed Over70c70.6$49 inLost-$49.421442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.18per pick61cpaid-32.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Under45c60$27 inWon+$331,42547.7%680 W · 745 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d5b…1578backed Under26c58.83$15 inWon+$43.532147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+21.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Under32c58.13$19 inWon+$39.5362144%273 W · 348 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Under49c50$25 inWon+$25.4225045.6%114 W · 136 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+11.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Under54c50$27 inWon+$2389048.8%434 W · 456 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca2b…3489backed Under46c48$22 inWon+$25.9211555.7%64 W · 51 L+10.1wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+15.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x89b9…118ebacked Over54c45$24 inLost-$24.371752%373 W · 344 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86b9…6d67backed Under45c44$20 inWon+$24.23894.7%36 W · 2 L+14.0wins+0.37per pick58cpaid+70.5%equal weight75+0.22 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Under69c38.71$27 inWon+$1285742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd48f…2327backed Over50c30$15 inLost-$155750.9%29 W · 28 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under50c30$15 inWon+$152,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ac8…9e67backed Over51c29.41$15 inLost-$1518543.2%80 W · 105 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb23d…8ba5backed Over50c20$10 inLost-$101936.8%7 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-30.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 106. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.