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NBA · resolved market

Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 200.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,587
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,406

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,587 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Over48c3,845$1,852 inLost-$1,852.458,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under32c2,121$669 inWon+$1,452.272,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Under49c1,804$888 inWon+$916.621,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Under76c620.15$471 inWon+$149.2425045.6%114 W · 136 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+11.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Under38c400.22$152 inWon+$248.371,31747.8%629 W · 688 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1be7…a6e3backed Over29c336$97 inLost-$97.441827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick42cpaid+2.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb6e…2225backed Over29c300$87 inLost-$87475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+37.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Over24c262.31$63 inLost-$63.218140.3%73 W · 108 L+24.4wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+60.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xc308…7b09backed Under30c234.33$71 inWon+$163.7431222.1%69 W · 243 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+79.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Over10c189.52$18 inLost-$18.4976653.5%410 W · 356 L+65.5wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+15.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Under19c180.94$34 inWon+$146.5664948.2%313 W · 336 L-3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Under28c170$48 inWon+$122.41,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea81…30b5backed Under60c163.26$98 inWon+$64.7813021.5%28 W · 102 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd57d…f5d4backed Under34c155.88$53 inWon+$102.881957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+16.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x987b…3d00backed Over67c149.25$100 inLost-$10016555.8%92 W · 73 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f13…203abacked Under37c134.27$50 inWon+$84.271952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1c6…2d29backed Under37c134.27$50 inWon+$84.274431.8%14 W · 30 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-16.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9632…a379backed Under37c132.42$49 inWon+$83.591546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dd9…bfe8backed Under70c112$78 inWon+$33.665762.3%409 W · 248 L+27.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x796c…25b8backed Over42c102.44$43 inLost-$42.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under58c81.07$47 inWon+$34.0568838.5%265 W · 423 L-26.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Under16c77.09$12 inWon+$65.0430448.4%147 W · 157 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89b9…118ebacked Over67c74.41$50 inLost-$49.5671752%373 W · 344 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf5e…95e3backed Under18c71.5$13 inWon+$58.6321046.2%97 W · 113 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under16c70.82$11 inWon+$59.81,39946.4%649 W · 750 L-13.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9f6…f7e6backed Under36c68.25$25 inWon+$43.681553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under16c64.36$10 inWon+$54.091,27747.2%603 W · 674 L-3.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Under17c61.75$10 inWon+$51.2525954.4%141 W · 118 L+34.1wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+68.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Over20c55.48$11 inLost-$11.3118941.8%79 W · 110 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x69c4…6779backed Over36c54.53$20 inLost-$19.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xafae…ca54backed Under47c45.04$21 inWon+$243333.3%11 W · 22 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xff68…8379backed Under69c43.77$30 inWon+$13.772864.3%18 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under64c40$26 inWon+$14.42,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4078…7d91backed Over41c38.82$16 inLost-$165540%22 W · 33 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1992…30e2backed Under52c34.06$18 inWon+$16.255839.7%23 W · 35 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Under55c29.86$16 inWon+$13.4432654.6%178 W · 148 L+22.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed Under69c22.95$16 inWon+$7.114264.8%92 W · 50 L+9.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x86b9…6d67backed Under64c20$13 inWon+$7.263894.7%36 W · 2 L+14.0wins+0.37per pick58cpaid+70.5%equal weight75+0.22 edge/pick
0x3308…f04bbacked Over80c20$16 inLost-$1625944%114 W · 145 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under70c20$14 inWon+$63,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 106. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.