Middle East · resolved market
Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x559e597cd35ae91059df74ba4e297350e1000ba1666d25437508dbd39936ccd4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $320,129
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $334,220
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $320,129 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 434 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 2c | 15,698$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.15 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 38c | 13,423$5,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,344.26 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 28c | 8,221$2,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,333.56 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 8,136$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.33 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked No | 78c | 4,873$3,811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,062.15 | 59 | 27.1%16 W · 43 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ce…f74dbacked Yes | 28c | 4,756$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350.37 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 37cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 13c | 4,460$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.4 | 156 | 26.9%42 W · 114 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c0…46ebbacked Yes | 70c | 3,974$2,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,790 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bc…026cbacked Yes | 35c | 3,944$1,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,398 | 99 | 30.3%30 W · 69 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x711c…8495backed Yes | 57c | 3,913$2,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,239.94 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 31c | 3,845$1,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,191.92 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 31c | 3,774$1,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,183.84 | 119 | 44.5%53 W · 66 L | -17.8wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2aab…3b61backed Yes | 59c | 3,756$2,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,216.64 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 22c | 3,504$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.87 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25c0…141cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,140$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…2585backed No | 68c | 3,110$2,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.12 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ae…143abacked Yes | 48c | 3,047$1,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,462 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 43c | 3,001$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280.12 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 68c | 3,000$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Yes | 44c | 2,871$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,249.58 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 22c | 2,800$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.23 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9c…6824backed Yes | 52c | 2,661$1,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,384.41 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5b…e6fdbacked No | 45c | 2,654$1,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,461.51 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed No | 75c | 2,653$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.35 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7c…8356backed Yes | 14c | 2,534$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.68 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 38c | 2,496$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.94 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8adf…764ebacked No | 53c | 2,394$1,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa96e…e5b5backed No | 80c | 2,196$1,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac83…eaaabacked Yes | 55c | 2,137$1,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,182.59 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 23c | 2,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 117 | 28.2%33 W · 84 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb4…b811backed No | 65c | 2,000$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0be…492fbacked Yes | 19c | 1,923$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.79 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3033backed Yes | 62c | 1,913$1,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,194 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc794…d09cbacked Yes | 37c | 1,893$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.3 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa45a…a03ebacked No | 65c | 1,878$1,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3726…8568backed Yes | 41c | 1,801$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744.66 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Yes | 23c | 1,800$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7020…fd20backed Yes | 46c | 1,733$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.74 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 61c | 1,670$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.97 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 3c | 1,513$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3602…b407backed Yes | 38c | 1,511$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.66 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab58…b07dbacked Yes | 38c | 1,426$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 36c | 1,385$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.82 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0518…5da2backed No | 60c | 1,332$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.3 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc976…0ad5backed No | 40c | 1,250$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbd…3d3dbacked Yes | 41c | 1,216$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5517…3c6bbacked Yes | 55c | 1,190$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 12c | 1,166$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.92 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +7.6wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +151%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 75c | 1,152$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.13 | 81 | 37%30 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…0b82backed No | 54c | 1,152$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.82 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 43c | 1,143$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.82 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed Yes | 42c | 1,091$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.06 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20c6…1fa2backed Yes | 37c | 1,074$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 67c | 1,030$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.68 | 270 | 47.8%129 W · 141 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…5ff2backed Yes | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf4…b8e3backed No | 64c | 993.28$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1630…e3fdbacked Yes | 61c | 989.37$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +467.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f9…9ad6backed Yes | 45c | 962.47$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.28 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +10.0wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked Yes | 40c | 957.9$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.71 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca9…e423backed Yes | 52c | 954.18$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 15c | 932$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.8 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +8.6wins | +0.16per pick | 14cpaid | +154.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked Yes | 51c | 901.15$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.17 | 179 | 34.6%62 W · 117 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82bb…85a8backed Yes | 70c | 901.06$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…c966backed Yes | 73c | 899.98$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.98 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e22…88a5backed Yes | 19c | 884.63$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.97 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84dd…8701backed Yes | 57c | 860$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.67 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 41c | 853.52$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.12 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xffdb…411dbacked Yes | 45c | 844.18$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.23 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…0d1bbacked No | 75c | 820$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.36 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…776ebacked No | 55c | 815.27$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.27 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6404…05efbacked Yes | 31c | 812.62$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 12c | 799.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 26c | 799.98$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.58 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad45…de8bbacked No | 64c | 776.31$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x628d…1f4cbacked Yes | 7c | 734.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdff…d46dbacked No | 79c | 726.57$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.43 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9aa…bb40backed Yes | 69c | 722.85$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.35 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb20b…8da0backed No | 70c | 711.26$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.26 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce0d…4c24backed Yes | 38c | 695.76$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 10c | 695.51$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.04 | 337 | 41.2%139 W · 198 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 693.12$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.57 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1782…28adbacked No | 73c | 685.9$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1128…cfa5backed Yes | 65c | 679.61$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.87 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed No | 66c | 666.85$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.75 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 44c | 649.01$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.89 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fb…9cf8backed Yes | 47c | 637.85$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 17c | 631.33$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2388…efb1backed Yes | 25c | 607.1$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 77c | 579.93$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.07 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa586…9a83backed Yes | 60c | 563.4$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes | 43c | 559.14$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.4 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Yes | 50c | 546.74$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.43 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd2…33b8backed No | 66c | 540.62$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…3ae1backed No | 62c | 535$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.65 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed Yes | 64c | 532.19$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.19 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…acc3backed Yes | 39c | 513.58$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b87…a20abacked No | 78c | 511.61$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…3f13backed No | 59c | 509.47$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.53 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x620f…2389backed Yes | 24c | 500$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2d…dbcbbacked No | 27c | 500$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.81 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.