Us Politics · resolved market
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0873d893d590c648cb6935d27fe1f3c05d977814a8b91ec12e96d25ab4e97eae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,464,605
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,382,570
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,464,605 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 633 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 4c | 76,456$3,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,115.81 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…2afebacked Yes | 14c | 66,191$9,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,090.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 6c | 56,609$3,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,227.39 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…0f53backed Yes | 3c | 47,841$1,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,487.57 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 9c | 25,746$2,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,387.99 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4500…115dbacked Yes | 0c | 14,506$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc701…920ebacked Yes | 14c | 14,080$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2735…bb7fbacked Yes | 2c | 13,457$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed5f…34c1backed Yes | 0c | 12,115$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaace…24c9backed Yes | 1c | 12,000$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff6…72aebacked Yes | 25c | 11,192$2,772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,772.42 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b41…82b7backed Yes | 18c | 11,169$2,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,006.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…625dbacked Yes | 8c | 10,082$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.84 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78c6…4710backed Yes | 14c | 9,999$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,399.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3afa…c9c4backed Yes | 15c | 9,590$1,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,443 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff77…4b76backed Yes | 8c | 9,446$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.79 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 11c | 8,000$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$914.67 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf9…cdc6backed Yes | 11c | 7,623$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x788f…19bbbacked Yes | 3c | 7,502$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6b…5578backed Yes | 1c | 7,134$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5caf…5470backed Yes | 1c | 6,614$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.49 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -91.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 6,594$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.42 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18c3…21a0backed Yes | 6c | 6,568$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 74c | 6,290$4,637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,652.64 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 11c | 6,200$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.85 | 142 | 8.5%12 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa56c…a440backed Yes | 6c | 6,064$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17bd…7afcbacked Yes | 0c | 6,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5398…5c6dbacked Yes | 3c | 5,702$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.46 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 5c | 5,485$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.23 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +166.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ce…f74dbacked Yes | 21c | 5,312$1,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,089.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 8c | 5,211$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.84 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0805…31c0backed Yes | 28c | 5,050$1,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,396.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…6dffbacked Yes | 3c | 5,000$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.43 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bd…169abacked Yes | 2c | 4,855$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f11…5a95backed Yes | 16c | 4,688$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e4…5557backed Yes | 5c | 4,674$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 76c | 4,666$3,551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,115.06 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 15c | 4,563$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.8 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4581…30a3backed Yes | 13c | 4,300$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e79…ecf8backed Yes | 12c | 4,154$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e6…fd30backed Yes | 11c | 4,055$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 21cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 79c | 3,975$3,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.13 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked No | 73c | 3,973$2,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,063.51 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb9…f6b3backed Yes | 3c | 3,890$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481d…48cfbacked Yes | 3c | 3,860$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.09 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…2585backed Yes | 27c | 3,829$1,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044.06 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x266c…60f0backed Yes | 8c | 3,800$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.59 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 12c | 3,700$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441 | 141 | 25.5%36 W · 105 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x352f…586fbacked Yes | 12c | 3,649$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1400…3a61backed Yes | 23c | 3,421$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ffe…b69dbacked Yes | 10c | 3,277$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd185…f285backed Yes | 12c | 3,221$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe14f…c1a0backed Yes | 12c | 3,162$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +36%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…709cbacked Yes | 9c | 3,153$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.6 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb1…9f57backed Yes | 16c | 3,070$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc5…0fa0backed Yes | 16c | 3,063$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73eb…7d73backed Yes | 5c | 3,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked Yes | 13c | 3,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9c…6824backed Yes | 14c | 3,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.99 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…c79abacked Yes | 0c | 2,888$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8557…76aebacked Yes | 30c | 2,886$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$867.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc57d…b8c5backed Yes | 4c | 2,833$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1eb…7afebacked No | 79c | 2,827$2,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.09 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1589…688bbacked Yes | 13c | 2,701$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x678b…10fbbacked Yes | 1c | 2,671$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 10c | 2,667$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.68 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 2,598$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.16 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c51…af7ebacked No | 76c | 2,583$1,959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.43 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79f…662ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,381$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1767…fd39backed Yes | 16c | 2,327$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d11…5c25backed Yes | 1c | 2,324$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd41…127dbacked Yes | 19c | 2,323$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6a…1ea5backed Yes | 17c | 2,299$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 14c | 2,266$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.16 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 8c | 2,135$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.69 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e52…44e7backed Yes | 11c | 2,133$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf996…c623backed Yes | 5c | 2,036$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e82…ee17backed Yes | 17c | 2,006$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 13c | 2,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…97f4backed Yes | 15c | 1,940$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.7 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08aa…b124backed Yes | 2c | 1,936$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4de9…4ab1backed Yes | 4c | 1,927$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf49…286dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,880$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…1e17backed No | 60c | 1,875$1,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 1,826$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 49 | 0%0 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf7…9189backed Yes | 11c | 1,796$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8a…6ef8backed Yes | 17c | 1,761$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9b…b444backed Yes | 14c | 1,692$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 31c | 1,665$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.68 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f31…c075backed Yes | 2c | 1,632$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7697…2bbebacked Yes | 6c | 1,619$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…0d5ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,552$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.15 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8881…4636backed Yes | 32c | 1,541$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5943…2ef2backed Yes | 2c | 1,533$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x409e…ae4abacked Yes | 9c | 1,525$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…3144backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fc…ac2bbacked No | 77c | 1,500$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.99 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed Yes | 11c | 1,450$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.23 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc0…ea03backed Yes | 1c | 1,432$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa94f…1643backed Yes | 17c | 1,419$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.