TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$67,368,762
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$43,892,591

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,368,762 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 4,222 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe25d…452cbacked Yes2c1,250,514$24,927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,926.8130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x581d…2b06backed Yes2c1,131,705$24,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,406.72130%0 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x569b…5658backed Yes3c1,042,266$27,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,213.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6bb…43cebacked Yes4c971,040$33,986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,986.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc658…b784backed Yes4c955,202$36,646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,646.31346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b67…1b07backed Yes2c873,763$17,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,354.4390%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2be4…01adbacked Yes3c862,949$21,917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,916.7120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe75b…fb46backed Yes3c721,333$18,491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,490.7640%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba32…deaabacked Yes2c690,493$16,988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,988.18180%0 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5697…c7bebacked Yes2c641,476$13,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,987.211118.2%2 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-54.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x443e…fef8backed Yes2c629,000$15,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,410.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa53c…67a5backed Yes2c600,728$12,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,226.01520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-70.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45b1…ec77backed Yes3c575,866$16,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,033.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaeb…a2a5backed Yes29c573,591$167,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167,267.31540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-38.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Yes4c549,981$24,613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,613.13303.3%1 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-92.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c15…c9dbbacked Yes10c549,976$55,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55,114.932321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-71.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4621…efccbacked Yes5c538,477$24,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,244.722917.2%5 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-34.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xce69…3e08backed Yes15c510,381$78,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78,975.2150%0 W · 15 L-2.9wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x82e6…c1bfbacked Yes2c503,496$10,915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,914.8520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09c1…6d08backed Yes2c503,071$11,851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,851.4720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90ee…7182backed Yes3c458,377$12,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,14270%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f8e…6a53backed Yes3c445,372$11,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,197.881717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-73.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x562e…4956backed Yes3c418,789$13,886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,885.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x030a…a199backed Yes2c387,219$9,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,391.840%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ced…12b2backed Yes16c385,768$62,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62,472.981216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-73.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8de0…87a0backed Yes4c382,817$15,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,264.52150%0 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes2c371,674$8,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,495.97130%0 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9145…2994backed Yes2c367,607$7,856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,856.4140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f33…0479backed Yes4c346,622$12,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,667.4990%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa283…17f4backed Yes3c336,799$10,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,125.120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc683…4b1fbacked Yes4c333,954$14,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,861.2740%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x03e1…387dbacked Yes27c321,617$85,779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85,778.55333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-57.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7ba5…4252backed Yes2c313,240$6,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,208.7130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf969…431bbacked Yes29c303,838$88,871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88,871.1430%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4685…4de3backed Yes2c297,670$5,783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,783156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick6cpaid-89.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0615…2368backed Yes3c286,115$9,896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,895.53333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+77.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf655…e63cbacked Yes2c284,000$4,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,961.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5fe…e320backed Yes12c275,639$32,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,270.450%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb009…175bbacked Yes2c269,883$4,822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,822.1260%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52a0…6b20backed Yes30c218,057$66,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66,187.05540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid-6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7072…3413backed Yes2c210,926$4,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,804.3830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f23…b36ebacked Yes3c199,647$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000110%0 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ca6…04f8backed Yes2c199,087$4,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,77730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb1f…c395backed Yes2c198,999$4,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,017.4720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e94…3d35backed Yes3c188,379$5,747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,747.1440%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d66…f7bebacked Yes3c186,854$5,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,503.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x241f…ef50backed Yes2c183,071$3,966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,965.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce5b…047abacked Yes2c178,444$3,899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,898.87425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-68.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88a2…0c07backed Yes6c178,310$11,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,189.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64d6…a74abacked Yes2c177,475$4,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,136.1730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48e5…bc26backed Yes2c176,260$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea8e…3de0backed Yes2c172,099$3,732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,732.0640%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8c4…bda6backed Yes2c168,222$3,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,649.7450%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Yes14c167,163$24,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,107.23540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-43.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b2d…46c2backed Yes3c165,506$5,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,300.5320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c87…9bd4backed Yes4c161,434$6,179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,179.133043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b25…846bbacked No72c160,000$115,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,560.822100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96e8…6b7bbacked Yes3c157,933$5,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,384.51618.8%3 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-19.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b3f…003bbacked Yes2c155,909$3,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,204.5330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1c16…45e9backed Yes2c155,160$3,541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,540.9370%0 W · 7 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7002…5150backed Yes2c153,918$2,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,93610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x117c…1ec9backed Yes3c149,218$4,459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,459.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd57…694dbacked Yes2c148,762$3,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,176.8240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5587…42dabacked Yes23c148,163$34,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,714.191127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-58.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e02…817ebacked Yes10c146,097$14,457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,456.7750%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc32…996bbacked Yes8c139,518$11,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,80050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa652…6f8fbacked Yes2c137,579$3,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,116.6740%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd281…d750backed Yes2c135,495$3,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,054.5320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fb0…bfc1backed Yes2c132,907$2,783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,782.620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ca4…acd5backed Yes2c132,748$2,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,038.0550%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7804…7025backed Yes3c131,673$4,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,037.19258%2 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick15cpaid-89.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a2f…1f59backed Yes2c130,866$2,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,987.1430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac51…da02backed Yes8c129,177$10,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,001.240%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfed8…60ecbacked Yes2c128,181$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,30030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5f8…6b35backed Yes3c128,026$3,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,28510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d4f…e6b7backed Yes42c120,049$49,933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,932.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2bb…1824backed Yes2c118,964$2,951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,950.51120%0 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f45…edfebacked Yes2c113,912$2,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,551.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa249…cda0backed Yes2c111,585$2,649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,648.9840%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdd9c…31a0backed Yes14c110,197$15,579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,579.324820.8%10 W · 38 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-61.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ec3…f757backed Yes3c108,000$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,70070%0 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdaec…1b08backed Yes3c107,236$2,796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,795.9920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1420…9daabacked Yes2c107,085$2,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,570.0470%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf559…f462backed Yes15c104,477$15,605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,604.58560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+74.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc964…bc79backed Yes1c102,929$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26f4…aed4backed Yes5c102,610$5,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,461.920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked Yes3c102,416$2,724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,724.378924.7%22 W · 67 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-34.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes9c101,828$9,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,157.63306.7%2 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-88.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45b8…e9cfbacked Yes2c100,895$2,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,094.5920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88e2…9d96backed Yes2c100,666$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,30020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f58…0ff0backed Yes3c100,001$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,500.162611.5%3 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick12cpaid-78%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes7c100,000$6,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,963.293315.2%5 W · 28 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-76%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ad6…46a8backed Yes2c100,000$1,749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,749.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58f4…12a9backed Yes2c100,000$2,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,017.381513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-53.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc30…ab64backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0df…2ef7backed Yes3c99,824$3,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,001.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88e5…c4f6backed Yes2c99,300$1,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,888.330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked Yes3c98,515$3,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,233.932934.5%10 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-34.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8f49…9e47backed Yes2c97,273$2,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,309.3150%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc190…cf58backed Yes3c94,193$2,601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,601.4130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.