Fed Rates · resolved market
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c3d5fba5442f3e725eb89b7cffcc341ca3105cddaac09c1e4bc8e7010f0fe40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,890,284
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,853,560
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,890,284 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 4,346 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c74…27d3backed Yes | 16c | 3,085,099$502,678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502,677.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de0…87a0backed Yes | 8c | 1,285,524$107,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107,245.49 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…c9dbbacked Yes | 10c | 918,022$92,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92,296.9 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4685…4de3backed Yes | 5c | 845,029$40,834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,834.2 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -89.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…a199backed Yes | 5c | 676,768$32,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,193.39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5a…00f2backed Yes | 6c | 639,000$38,951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,950.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Yes | 7c | 550,365$38,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,497.64 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -92.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab57…842bbacked Yes | 9c | 504,932$47,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47,120.93 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -88%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x104a…5b05backed Yes | 9c | 422,927$38,897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,896.93 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4621…efccbacked Yes | 3c | 363,285$12,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,011.95 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be4…01adbacked Yes | 5c | 350,150$16,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,376.78 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1027…8f1ebacked Yes | 4c | 344,272$13,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,157.97 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5697…c7bebacked Yes | 6c | 336,574$20,778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,778.03 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0914…9c93backed Yes | 3c | 318,182$10,711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,711.16 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca9…ad82backed Yes | 4c | 314,229$13,854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,853.85 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 12c | 305,751$36,741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,740.89 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd241…0fc3backed Yes | 0c | 299,000$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab4…fa65backed Yes | 4c | 270,935$12,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,176.3 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46af…1127backed Yes | 6c | 262,683$15,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,629.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…87e0backed Yes | 8c | 261,541$19,936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,935.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…eef2backed Yes | 8c | 253,295$20,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,013.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79ff…df61backed Yes | 11c | 241,190$25,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,594 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…5204backed Yes | 6c | 228,612$13,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,988.06 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b2…307dbacked Yes | 13c | 218,260$27,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,664.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes | 9c | 216,851$18,712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,712.19 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8525…c54dbacked Yes | 6c | 216,000$11,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,959.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b8…f893backed Yes | 6c | 211,636$11,821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,821.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…320cbacked Yes | 7c | 209,301$15,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,511 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd82f…5bd9backed Yes | 8c | 207,513$16,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,660.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae3…5accbacked Yes | 6c | 198,513$11,558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,557.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fa…1a14backed Yes | 12c | 193,560$22,859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,859.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 1c | 190,000$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140 | 52 | 3.8%2 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 7c | 179,641$11,977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,977.11 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaefb…a0efbacked Yes | 4c | 174,773$6,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,600.57 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…2a34backed Yes | 12c | 174,247$20,879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,878.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed Yes | 10c | 170,700$17,915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,914.75 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x472e…85ebbacked Yes | 5c | 167,464$8,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,659.58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0492…f714backed Yes | 14c | 166,855$23,671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,671.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x398d…c7c3backed No | 75c | 149,139$111,923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,215.49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa289…55d4backed Yes | 7c | 147,928$9,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,899.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf00b…ee8abacked Yes | 6c | 146,318$8,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,355.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…5fb6backed Yes | 7c | 137,675$9,537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,536.58 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x611c…c982backed Yes | 7c | 135,543$10,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,048 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 13cpaid | -89.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 8c | 132,556$10,554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,553.56 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6359…de88backed Yes | 4c | 130,827$5,857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,856.86 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…4c7abacked Yes | 5c | 130,762$6,534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,533.94 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x221d…ab2abacked Yes | 7c | 125,763$8,979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,979 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1e…65a5backed Yes | 8c | 125,575$10,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,085.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…83c0backed Yes | 6c | 125,083$7,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,010.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 2c | 123,121$2,992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,992.36 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6c…273bbacked Yes | 8c | 122,592$10,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,005.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81d2…e13ebacked Yes | 8c | 121,561$9,977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,976.57 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ca…a13fbacked Yes | 6c | 117,517$7,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,502.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff6…72aebacked Yes | 5c | 116,464$5,742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,741.87 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46c6…a48ebacked Yes | 7c | 115,522$7,868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,868.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 9c | 114,815$10,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,009.63 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -76%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 5c | 109,065$5,734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,734.14 | 96 | 0%0 W · 96 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd4…85aabacked Yes | 8c | 107,848$8,609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,609 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -47%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f7…5400backed Yes | 6c | 105,287$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…1824backed Yes | 6c | 104,676$6,692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,692.14 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ee…7182backed Yes | 8c | 104,178$8,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,249 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57f4…3af8backed Yes | 10c | 102,807$10,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,464.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x257e…0ec0backed Yes | 0c | 101,175$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1d…ebd0backed Yes | 8c | 101,031$7,876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,876 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1c…a1fcbacked Yes | 8c | 100,859$7,987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,987.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4134…418dbacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked No | 80c | 99,489$79,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,256.89 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf811…1792backed Yes | 11c | 98,797$10,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadae…26e3backed Yes | 6c | 97,576$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7804…7025backed Yes | 8c | 97,332$7,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,379.77 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -89.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf35b…d200backed Yes | 8c | 96,551$8,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb7…ec54backed Yes | 15c | 96,435$14,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,874.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c53…1977backed Yes | 6c | 95,902$6,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x417d…3b01backed Yes | 8c | 94,956$8,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,006.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1e…f6c8backed Yes | 3c | 90,663$2,913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,913.34 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c00…6361backed Yes | 11c | 90,510$10,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,055.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9c…31a0backed Yes | 5c | 87,439$4,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,290.53 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…74babacked Yes | 6c | 87,000$5,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,207.78 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afc…128cbacked Yes | 6c | 86,314$5,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,285.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ec…6064backed Yes | 2c | 85,060$1,831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,830.79 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -96.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc32…996bbacked Yes | 8c | 84,580$6,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,595.24 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827f…7f59backed Yes | 7c | 82,273$5,876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,875.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…f7a7backed Yes | 4c | 81,027$3,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,374.37 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0a…0e7dbacked Yes | 6c | 80,810$4,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,729 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22fb…d7d6backed Yes | 4c | 76,264$2,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,855.16 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96e8…6b7bbacked Yes | 10c | 76,095$7,592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,591.61 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0f…a318backed Yes | 10c | 75,669$7,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,581.76 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3761…bb98backed Yes | 7c | 73,756$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,999.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…62abbacked Yes | 8c | 73,200$5,918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,917.89 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3aaf…c6b6backed Yes | 13c | 71,061$9,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,272 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf38e…8ed6backed Yes | 5c | 70,126$3,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,545.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a7…588abacked Yes | 6c | 69,277$3,963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,963.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…387dbacked Yes | 7c | 69,079$4,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,760.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 5c | 65,659$3,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,260.25 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -41%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1639…07f0backed Yes | 8c | 64,326$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 7c | 63,084$4,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,249.29 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x963d…ec60backed Yes | 2c | 62,969$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4a…4f22backed Yes | 8c | 62,197$4,793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,793 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa249…cda0backed Yes | 11c | 59,120$6,538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,537.58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5d…f9dabacked Yes | 12c | 58,869$7,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,211.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?this page
- Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?Yes won
- Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting?No won
- No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.