TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$49,890,284
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$32,853,560

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,890,284 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 4,346 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3c74…27d3backed Yes16c3,085,099$502,678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502,677.56250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8de0…87a0backed Yes8c1,285,524$107,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107,245.49150%0 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c15…c9dbbacked Yes10c918,022$92,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92,296.92321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-71.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4685…4de3backed Yes5c845,029$40,834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,834.2156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick6cpaid-89.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x030a…a199backed Yes5c676,768$32,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,193.3940%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b5a…00f2backed Yes6c639,000$38,951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,950.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Yes7c550,365$38,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,497.64303.3%1 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-92.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab57…842bbacked Yes9c504,932$47,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47,120.93128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick24cpaid-88%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x104a…5b05backed Yes9c422,927$38,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,896.93119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-76.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4621…efccbacked Yes3c363,285$12,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,011.952917.2%5 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-34.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2be4…01adbacked Yes5c350,150$16,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,376.78120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1027…8f1ebacked Yes4c344,272$13,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,157.97728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-62.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5697…c7bebacked Yes6c336,574$20,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,778.031118.2%2 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-54.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0914…9c93backed Yes3c318,182$10,711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,711.16130%0 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ca9…ad82backed Yes4c314,229$13,854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,853.8570%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Yes12c305,751$36,741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,740.891631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-45.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd241…0fc3backed Yes0c299,000$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab4…fa65backed Yes4c270,935$12,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,176.31050%5 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-27.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46af…1127backed Yes6c262,683$15,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,629.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94e4…87e0backed Yes8c261,541$19,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,935.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c29…eef2backed Yes8c253,295$20,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,013.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79ff…df61backed Yes11c241,190$25,594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,59410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3413…5204backed Yes6c228,612$13,988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,988.063423.5%8 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-53.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x71b2…307dbacked Yes13c218,260$27,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,664.5330%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes9c216,851$18,712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,712.191010%1 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-69.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8525…c54dbacked Yes6c216,000$11,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,959.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2b8…f893backed Yes6c211,636$11,821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,821.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f33…320cbacked Yes7c209,301$15,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,51110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd82f…5bd9backed Yes8c207,513$16,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,660.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ae3…5accbacked Yes6c198,513$11,558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,557.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1fa…1a14backed Yes12c193,560$22,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,859.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes1c190,000$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,140523.8%2 W · 50 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-86.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes7c179,641$11,977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,977.11306.7%2 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-88.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaefb…a0efbacked Yes4c174,773$6,601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,600.57825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-62.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc0da…2a34backed Yes12c174,247$20,879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,878.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5950…8c48backed Yes10c170,700$17,915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,914.754617.4%8 W · 38 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-68.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x472e…85ebbacked Yes5c167,464$8,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,659.5840%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0492…f714backed Yes14c166,855$23,671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,671.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x398d…c7c3backed No75c149,139$111,923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,215.49475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa289…55d4backed Yes7c147,928$9,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,899.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf00b…ee8abacked Yes6c146,318$8,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,355.930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1e7…5fb6backed Yes7c137,675$9,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,536.582010%2 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-70.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x611c…c982backed Yes7c135,543$10,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,048303.3%1 W · 29 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick13cpaid-89.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes8c132,556$10,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,553.56150%0 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6359…de88backed Yes4c130,827$5,857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,856.86520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick10cpaid+33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde56…4c7abacked Yes5c130,762$6,534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,533.94714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-70.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x221d…ab2abacked Yes7c125,763$8,979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,97940%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b1e…65a5backed Yes8c125,575$10,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,085.1530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4262…83c0backed Yes6c125,083$7,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,010.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes2c123,121$2,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,992.3610420.2%21 W · 83 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d6c…273bbacked Yes8c122,592$10,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,005.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81d2…e13ebacked Yes8c121,561$9,977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,976.5790%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10ca…a13fbacked Yes6c117,517$7,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,502.2420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8ff6…72aebacked Yes5c116,464$5,742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,741.87911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-84.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x46c6…a48ebacked Yes7c115,522$7,868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,868.2530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes9c114,815$10,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,009.633315.2%5 W · 28 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-76%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes5c109,065$5,734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,734.14960%0 W · 96 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dd4…85aabacked Yes8c107,848$8,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,609333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-47%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44f7…5400backed Yes6c105,287$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2bb…1824backed Yes6c104,676$6,692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,692.14120%0 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90ee…7182backed Yes8c104,178$8,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,24970%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57f4…3af8backed Yes10c102,807$10,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,464.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x257e…0ec0backed Yes0c101,175$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.2130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c1d…ebd0backed Yes8c101,031$7,876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,87610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a1c…a1fcbacked Yes8c100,859$7,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,987.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4134…418dbacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked No80c99,489$79,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,256.893100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf811…1792backed Yes11c98,797$10,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,50020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadae…26e3backed Yes6c97,576$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7804…7025backed Yes8c97,332$7,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,379.77258%2 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick15cpaid-89.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf35b…d200backed Yes8c96,551$8,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,12010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacb7…ec54backed Yes15c96,435$14,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,874.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c53…1977backed Yes6c95,902$6,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,20050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x417d…3b01backed Yes8c94,956$8,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,006.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a1e…f6c8backed Yes3c90,663$2,913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,913.3460%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c00…6361backed Yes11c90,510$10,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,055.2440%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd9c…31a0backed Yes5c87,439$4,291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,290.534820.8%10 W · 38 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-61.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa55c…74babacked Yes6c87,000$5,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,207.7870%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8afc…128cbacked Yes6c86,314$5,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,285.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ec…6064backed Yes2c85,060$1,831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,830.79352.9%1 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-96.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc32…996bbacked Yes8c84,580$6,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,595.2450%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x827f…7f59backed Yes7c82,273$5,876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,875.6330%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6df…f7a7backed Yes4c81,027$3,374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,374.37280%0 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc0a…0e7dbacked Yes6c80,810$4,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,72910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22fb…d7d6backed Yes4c76,264$2,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,855.16120%0 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96e8…6b7bbacked Yes10c76,095$7,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,591.611618.8%3 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-19.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d0f…a318backed Yes10c75,669$7,582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,581.7660%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3761…bb98backed Yes7c73,756$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,999.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f68…62abbacked Yes8c73,200$5,918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,917.892213.6%3 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3aaf…c6b6backed Yes13c71,061$9,272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,27210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf38e…8ed6backed Yes5c70,126$3,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,545.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a7…588abacked Yes6c69,277$3,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,963.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03e1…387dbacked Yes7c69,079$4,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,760.46333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-57.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes5c65,659$3,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,260.251931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick24cpaid-41%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1639…07f0backed Yes8c64,326$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked Yes7c63,084$4,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,249.298924.7%22 W · 67 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-34.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x963d…ec60backed Yes2c62,969$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94950%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa4a…4f22backed Yes8c62,197$4,793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,79310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa249…cda0backed Yes11c59,120$6,538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,537.5840%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2b5d…f9dabacked Yes12c58,869$7,211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,211.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.