TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

76ers vs. Celtics

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
76ersof 76ers, Celtics
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,785,387
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,631,101

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,785,387 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,603 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9f2f…2ca8backed 76ers49c1,140,036$556,337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583,699.629745.4%44 W · 53 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4bff…fc26backed Celtics65c899,391$583,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583,585.93240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6211…b89ebacked Celtics61c697,122$425,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425,244.58148.1%39 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed 76ers46c685,238$318,546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366,692.1166248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed 76ers33c598,376$197,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401,202.7664948.2%313 W · 336 L-3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe30e…6b87backed Celtics69c332,000$229,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229,535.15875%6 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick74cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac25…433fbacked 76ers32c241,742$76,523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165,219.398038.8%31 W · 49 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Celtics60c239,289$144,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144,599.4872648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Celtics72c163,999$117,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117,779.541,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c5e…a114backed 76ers32c140,005$44,802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95,203.43554.3%19 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+19.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6db5…e279backed 76ers76c139,101$105,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,843.875354.7%29 W · 24 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Celtics62c138,834$86,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86,102.4169848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ec…e8f1backed 76ers30c132,513$40,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92,513.3924831.9%79 W · 169 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x163e…dc5bbacked Celtics31c130,032$40,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,107.0120758%120 W · 87 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Celtics28c121,988$33,749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,749.3585742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf668…5c69backed 76ers29c102,216$29,731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72,484.6636359.8%217 W · 146 L+23.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x52f5…5e8abacked Celtics71c100,000$71,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70,999.953770.3%26 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked 76ers31c94,750$29,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65,377.510530.5%32 W · 73 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+25.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54d2…ac37backed Celtics42c90,378$37,959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,958.642454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+25.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Celtics61c82,825$50,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,398.9116841.1%69 W · 99 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0767…36b0backed Celtics71c82,517$58,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58,587.028154.3%44 W · 37 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+19.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8516…93a0backed 76ers30c80,745$24,579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56,166.138035%28 W · 52 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked 76ers43c78,897$33,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,899.4534456.7%195 W · 149 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed 76ers61c73,629$44,893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,735.721,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5257…3e2abacked Celtics71c70,561$49,776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,776.13666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid+6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Celtics69c62,734$43,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,145.4521549.8%107 W · 108 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Celtics68c62,600$42,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,56859347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b4a…8060backed 76ers32c59,999$19,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,799.283839.5%15 W · 23 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5aa…9134backed 76ers33c58,810$19,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,522.2819957.8%115 W · 84 L+18.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Celtics68c56,790$38,579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,579.2931644.6%141 W · 175 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Celtics42c52,652$21,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,879.6829245.5%133 W · 159 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Celtics63c52,602$33,371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,371.3896447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4fc8…6ca6backed 76ers28c50,000$14,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,0001776.5%13 W · 4 L+3.8wins+0.22per pick54cpaid+62.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked 76ers29c48,551$14,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,470.941,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed 76ers35c48,000$16,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,14017553.7%94 W · 81 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed 76ers54c42,551$22,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,695.5927251.1%139 W · 133 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6815…9edbbacked 76ers43c41,552$18,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,494.2220946.9%98 W · 111 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed Celtics70c40,000$27,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,8002458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0ff…9953backed 76ers54c39,412$21,474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,937.7911864.4%76 W · 42 L+15.6wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+25.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x65b9…ff15backed Celtics60c38,204$23,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,022.17540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-47.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Celtics69c36,980$25,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,574.71,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x418d…88a3backed 76ers44c36,625$16,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,49510248%49 W · 53 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Celtics67c35,578$23,837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,836.951,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Celtics48c35,449$17,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,00042348%203 W · 220 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe807…307cbacked Celtics70c34,700$24,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,290560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1333…e463backed Celtics62c33,871$21,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,0004438.6%17 W · 27 L-6.2wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-30.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf165…2194backed 76ers29c33,780$9,796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,9843644.4%16 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x709e…66f5backed 76ers37c33,754$12,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,264.884860.4%29 W · 19 L+4.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+25%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Celtics68c33,626$22,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,778.352,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a88…41ccbacked 76ers38c33,333$12,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,666.464734%16 W · 31 L-6.9wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-30.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1de3…a1fabacked Celtics39c31,624$12,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,388.271233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+22%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b1e…82c9backed Celtics33c30,464$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0006243.5%27 W · 35 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Celtics68c30,000$20,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,40027747.7%132 W · 145 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Celtics71c29,871$21,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,155.9537355%205 W · 168 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed 76ers34c29,785$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,785.0717441.4%72 W · 102 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d9c…4695backed Celtics43c29,398$12,563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,563.471435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x73f7…b2e9backed Celtics69c29,143$20,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,108.671457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7200…9299backed 76ers35c28,958$10,245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,712.8636954.7%202 W · 167 L+28.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+18.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x575a…bba6backed Celtics10c27,735$2,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,854.7812529.6%37 W · 88 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5234…4c4fbacked Celtics57c26,750$15,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,124.961241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e64…336dbacked Celtics41c26,030$10,797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,797.31911.1%1 W · 8 L-3.1wins-0.34per pick45cpaid-62.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1895…efd2backed 76ers65c25,972$16,786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,185.819346.2%43 W · 50 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba81…dc35backed Celtics68c25,000$17,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,0004252.4%22 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed 76ers29c25,000$7,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,70043348.5%210 W · 223 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Celtics69c24,615$16,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,920.54,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ef2…79f9backed 76ers33c24,053$8,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,020.551931.6%6 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Celtics32c23,986$7,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,683.0319937.2%74 W · 125 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0075…5f10backed 76ers60c23,482$13,976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,506.171758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.17per pick42cpaid+59.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0ebb…cb1abacked Celtics45c22,222$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0002748.1%13 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-19.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6bd…3096backed Celtics72c22,222$16,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,0007852.6%41 W · 37 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x37d3…709abacked 76ers59c21,971$12,879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,091.852642.3%11 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+64.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed 76ers34c21,659$7,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,294.8513642.6%58 W · 78 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Celtics1c21,510$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.745213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed 76ers57c21,475$12,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,132.452,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa1e4…4f8abacked 76ers40c21,250$8,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,7506240.3%25 W · 37 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+21%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c1c…7980backed Celtics69c20,900$14,317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,317.495747.4%27 W · 30 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f08…5afbbacked Celtics70c20,613$14,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,502.5116743.7%73 W · 94 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b1a…5abfbacked Celtics70c20,420$14,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,357.43946.2%18 W · 21 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Celtics28c20,306$5,701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,701.1793148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Celtics72c20,303$14,622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,621.6361851.6%319 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcbf…d37fbacked Celtics62c20,191$12,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,587.238728.7%25 W · 62 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-23.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Celtics12c20,000$2,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,335.149244.3%218 W · 274 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed 76ers29c20,000$5,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,200.021,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x853e…0d8cbacked 76ers32c20,000$6,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,60012042.5%51 W · 69 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9106…afcbbacked 76ers28c20,000$5,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,4001758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+46.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1ca4…f2d4backed Celtics10c19,800$1,932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,93220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked 76ers39c19,487$7,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,887.1836549.6%181 W · 184 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x901f…74e9backed 76ers32c18,750$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,75010046%46 W · 54 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+27%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c8c…c7b4backed 76ers30c18,476$5,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,010.4235650%178 W · 178 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41ed…2032backed 76ers56c17,869$9,972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,897.243630.6%11 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x896a…688dbacked Celtics61c17,655$10,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,684.036336.5%23 W · 40 L-5.4wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-23.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc0fd…a0a9backed Celtics70c17,325$12,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,0961741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick54cpaid+0.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Celtics44c17,161$7,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,60771654.1%387 W · 329 L+21.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x92b5…fec6backed 76ers35c17,038$5,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,107.9110747.7%51 W · 56 L+0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0528…424bbacked Celtics71c17,001$12,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,037.66550.8%33 W · 32 L+6.2wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+41.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x979f…4032backed 76ers43c17,000$7,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,7002050%10 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+21.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3719…2df0backed 76ers60c16,672$9,958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,713.192941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a84…8606backed Celtics67c16,656$11,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,159.48425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick60cpaid-64.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x96dd…17febacked 76ers30c16,366$4,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,456.138661.6%53 W · 33 L+8.0wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+25.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x498c…42bfbacked 76ers34c16,126$5,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,595.1315349%75 W · 78 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.