Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold close below $4000 at the end of 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1dc68761b70b8c60f238570d2667d1b14222edcd864f211fee6147c993bf95c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $723,374
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $591,071
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $723,374 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 468 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x95b3…9989backed Yes | 1c | 34,479$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.1 | 68 | 4.4%3 W · 65 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +123.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7b…b427backed Yes | 1c | 29,190$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed Yes | 10c | 20,148$2,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,027.67 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xab45…c4f5backed Yes | 17c | 19,033$3,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,160.6 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…4876backed Yes | 27c | 14,537$3,914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,914.39 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Yes | 24c | 11,506$2,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,719.59 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +161.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde7d…499ebacked Yes | 35c | 10,129$3,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,561.28 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 34cpaid | -72%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x749c…f6e9backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f4…0fc7backed Yes | 11c | 10,000$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…8cb4backed Yes | 11c | 9,983$1,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,093.21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd42…449bbacked Yes | 2c | 9,899$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…ba93backed Yes | 0c | 7,681$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 6,846$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.21 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d6…64b8backed Yes | 11c | 6,768$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 0c | 6,123$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 5,808$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.34 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5244…83bcbacked Yes | 1c | 4,505$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9f…de68backed Yes | 0c | 4,419$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 13c | 4,409$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.92 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 1c | 4,234$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.73 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 2cpaid | +63%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc771…b18fbacked Yes | 1c | 4,029$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 5c | 4,015$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.69 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8da…7e89backed Yes | 35c | 3,886$1,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,378.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 3,788$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc22c…bfc7backed Yes | 10c | 3,442$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 1c | 3,329$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 90 | 8.9%8 W · 82 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc548…e66cbacked Yes | 2c | 3,266$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.8 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 1c | 3,211$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 3cpaid | +81%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x609f…c5a8backed Yes | 1c | 3,201$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…eb2abacked Yes | 3c | 3,054$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…24ffbacked Yes | 2c | 3,038$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.82 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 3,028$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 130 | 6.2%8 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 1c | 2,941$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 75 | 2.7%2 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4d…8b2cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,890$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Yes | 28c | 2,849$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.26 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…e7e6backed Yes | 13c | 2,800$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43f5…9b30backed Yes | 1c | 2,669$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22e6…409fbacked Yes | 27c | 2,461$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…0082backed Yes | 1c | 2,448$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 1c | 2,443$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked No | 73c | 2,408$1,758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.39 | 71 | 31%22 W · 49 L | -10.0wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9e59…a17cbacked No | 72c | 2,400$1,718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a3…422abacked Yes | 2c | 2,383$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd6…d939backed Yes | 1c | 2,300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0f…04d4backed Yes | 36c | 2,256$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed Yes | 1c | 2,244$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x024a…decbbacked Yes | 39c | 2,140$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1b…8ac9backed Yes | 9c | 2,100$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff16…7511backed Yes | 8c | 2,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ac…0a7abacked No | 80c | 2,000$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 2c | 1,989$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 3cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b3…eeb2backed No | 63c | 1,869$1,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.68 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa32c…c374backed Yes | 28c | 1,811$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.91 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc632…55bebacked Yes | 3c | 1,778$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48f3…104fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,772$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…6657backed Yes | 1c | 1,750$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…b443backed Yes | 6c | 1,732$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 70c | 1,709$1,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.8 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…c693backed No | 63c | 1,637$1,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed No | 70c | 1,616$1,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.78 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -6.7wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x346b…860bbacked Yes | 25c | 1,596$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18c0…1ce7backed Yes | 1c | 1,561$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad2a…69d8backed Yes | 1c | 1,551$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 3cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…2bf1backed No | 69c | 1,536$1,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.2 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +3.1wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4c60…2227backed Yes | 43c | 1,500$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +89%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd196…36bfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,485$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f3…f66ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,465$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 1,450$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf604…36b3backed Yes | 27c | 1,354$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82bb…68dcbacked Yes | 4c | 1,346$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f44…bc79backed Yes | 17c | 1,310$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 15c | 1,297$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.96 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b5…8912backed Yes | 9c | 1,278$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba50…9f97backed Yes | 1c | 1,277$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69ac…be5abacked Yes | 2c | 1,264$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…6dffbacked Yes | 44c | 1,258$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40b1…d3c9backed Yes | 4c | 1,210$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.13 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e11…be8ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,204$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51b8…1df6backed Yes | 17c | 1,196$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b0…9d67backed Yes | 2c | 1,150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d2…b56bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9b…eb64backed Yes | 14c | 1,118$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 68c | 1,112$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6e…c7e1backed Yes | 3c | 1,093$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,076$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 93 | 12.9%12 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…2a23backed Yes | 2c | 1,055$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60e3…0abdbacked No | 78c | 1,052$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe085…cd9abacked Yes | 28c | 1,044$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e42…411fbacked Yes | 17c | 1,039$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eef…81b8backed Yes | 39c | 1,030$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 21c | 1,005$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.72 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eef…76bbbacked Yes | 41c | 1,003$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x883f…3b77backed Yes | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…bf5cbacked Yes | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59da…ee69backed Yes | 2c | 999.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f1…5743backed Yes | 30c | 985.32$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4517…f700backed Yes | 31c | 975.95$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfee…64bbbacked No | 56c | 967.99$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.24 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 42c | 955.46$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.13 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold close below $4000 at the end of 2025?this page
- Will Gold close above $5000 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $4000 and $4100 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $4100 and $4200 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $4200 and $4300 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $4300 and $4400 at the end of 2025?Yes won
- Will Gold close between $4400 and $4500 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $4500 and $4600 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $4600 and $4700 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $4700 and $4800 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $4800 and $4900 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $4900 and $5000 at the end of 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.