Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold close between $4200 and $4300 at the end of 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc1462ef2035cd41f06fc9ae0a23bf2adf029c43060d1f489c251b5ef1bb19a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $696,921
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $454,508
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $696,921 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 510 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f00…78d5backed No | 79c | 32,331$25,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,935.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…9989backed Yes | 2c | 21,262$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.55 | 68 | 4.4%3 W · 65 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +123.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed Yes | 11c | 17,896$1,881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,881.46 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6636…bf37backed Yes | 5c | 16,766$886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$886.32 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3e…edc9backed Yes | 6c | 16,013$1,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,024.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Yes | 27c | 14,521$3,891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,891.1 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -6.7wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 8c | 13,238$1,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,108.26 | 130 | 6.2%8 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…26b5backed Yes | 7c | 12,529$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$933.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48e4…c001backed Yes | 3c | 12,107$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.04 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x969c…3dd1backed Yes | 1c | 10,300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf887…92acbacked Yes | 0c | 9,589$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8854…5882backed Yes | 2c | 9,469$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +397.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 7c | 8,579$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.11 | 93 | 12.9%12 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d80…c953backed Yes | 22c | 7,844$1,746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,746.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f0…ceabbacked Yes | 2c | 7,831$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 5c | 7,561$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.49 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +121.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4440…959abacked Yes | 24c | 7,559$1,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,783.21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 7,518$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.02 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 2c | 7,134$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.04 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 10c | 6,636$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.86 | 90 | 8.9%8 W · 82 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Yes | 8c | 6,029$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.89 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes | 11c | 5,253$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.67 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc23b…24f9backed Yes | 9c | 5,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2977…8abfbacked Yes | 24c | 5,000$1,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,220 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes | 6c | 4,737$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.48 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8026…2f99backed Yes | 4c | 4,494$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…f8cdbacked Yes | 18c | 4,493$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.24 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 18c | 4,477$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.71 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Yes | 8c | 4,359$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.53 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +161.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3bea…f95abacked Yes | 10c | 4,307$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 20c | 4,279$844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$843.71 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeefa…c780backed Yes | 21c | 4,265$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902.78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0120…797abacked Yes | 3c | 4,140$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 7cpaid | +191.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 11c | 4,062$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.94 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee4…276fbacked Yes | 12c | 4,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +262.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…7e39backed Yes | 5c | 3,992$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,913$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.9 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65a0…ebecbacked Yes | 28c | 3,838$1,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,078.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2708…bd47backed Yes | 4c | 3,701$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47fc…8d6bbacked Yes | 13c | 3,636$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf584…803cbacked Yes | 3c | 3,524$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 3cpaid | +71%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfae6…c165backed Yes | 16c | 3,405$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x903f…e556backed Yes | 7c | 3,332$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.26 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x506d…6654backed Yes | 24c | 3,288$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b6…7a3abacked Yes | 22c | 3,263$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe76b…e02abacked Yes | 19c | 3,141$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.05 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18c0…1ce7backed Yes | 15c | 3,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.93 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…783bbacked Yes | 15c | 2,958$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.63 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +7.5wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x064a…6007backed Yes | 17c | 2,914$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 2,848$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.53 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 2,648$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.46 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42c0…fe99backed Yes | 13c | 2,548$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c2…498ebacked Yes | 15c | 2,525$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x622f…9992backed Yes | 11c | 2,506$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.37 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff3…00b3backed Yes | 12c | 2,425$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.82 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x878e…a074backed Yes | 24c | 2,417$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…826abacked Yes | 9c | 2,328$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1dd…5625backed Yes | 3c | 2,314$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 6cpaid | +180.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked No | 80c | 2,284$1,826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.91 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…416abacked Yes | 17c | 2,196$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22c…bfc7backed Yes | 8c | 2,100$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd3…d6b2backed Yes | 5c | 2,038$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7c…9ad8backed Yes | 20c | 2,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…6657backed Yes | 25c | 2,000$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.7 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf85f…9800backed Yes | 13c | 2,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6db5…497dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 20c | 1,936$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.67 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ed…ce26backed Yes | 4c | 1,933$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…e56fbacked Yes | 17c | 1,855$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…b715backed Yes | 25c | 1,785$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa252…dbf4backed Yes | 23c | 1,771$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 2c | 1,763$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6f38backed Yes | 11c | 1,743$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9e…190bbacked Yes | 14c | 1,731$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.8 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b3…e59fbacked Yes | 29c | 1,724$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b97…3f54backed Yes | 12c | 1,683$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d43…743bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,675$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 6c | 1,643$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba50…9f97backed Yes | 2c | 1,606$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…533fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,600$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2450…8108backed Yes | 32c | 1,589$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.17 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 1,585$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa90f…62d6backed Yes | 32c | 1,577$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…24ffbacked Yes | 6c | 1,575$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.14 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x402e…5d12backed No | 79c | 1,571$1,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.85 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +115.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3103…5ef3backed Yes | 18c | 1,539$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 20c | 1,528$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.8 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 14c | 1,528$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.59 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 6c | 1,501$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.82 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 24cpaid | +125.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad23…47c4backed Yes | 16c | 1,500$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3439…2985backed Yes | 14c | 1,487$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,400$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 2cpaid | +63%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12c3…a470backed Yes | 7c | 1,375$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 16c | 1,362$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.34 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b1…d3c9backed Yes | 5c | 1,341$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099d…8c53backed Yes | 8c | 1,293$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…02b4backed Yes | 8c | 1,287$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a99…df14backed Yes | 18c | 1,285$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -47%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…592cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,258$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5633…6c51backed Yes | 20c | 1,250$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold close between $4200 and $4300 at the end of 2025?this page
- Will Gold close above $5000 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close below $4000 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $4000 and $4100 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $4100 and $4200 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $4300 and $4400 at the end of 2025?Yes won
- Will Gold close between $4400 and $4500 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $4500 and $4600 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $4600 and $4700 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $4700 and $4800 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $4800 and $4900 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $4900 and $5000 at the end of 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.