TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Gold close between $4200 and $4300 at the end of 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$696,921
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$454,508

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $696,921 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 510 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0f00…78d5backed No79c32,331$25,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,935.82250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-36.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95b3…9989backed Yes2c21,262$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.55684.4%3 W · 65 L-0.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid+123.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf503…39e2backed Yes11c17,896$1,881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,881.462050%10 W · 10 L+4.6wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+57.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6636…bf37backed Yes5c16,766$886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$886.321926.3%5 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+28.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d3e…edc9backed Yes6c16,013$1,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,024.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed Yes27c14,521$3,891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,891.14440.9%18 W · 26 L-6.7wins-0.15per pick56cpaid-27.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes8c13,238$1,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,108.261306.2%8 W · 122 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-63.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9787…26b5backed Yes7c12,529$934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48e4…c001backed Yes3c12,107$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.0450%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x969c…3dd1backed Yes1c10,300$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.6742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+35.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf887…92acbacked Yes0c9,589$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8854…5882backed Yes2c9,469$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.79333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick9cpaid+397.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes7c8,579$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.119312.9%12 W · 81 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick16cpaid+17.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d80…c953backed Yes22c7,844$1,746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,746.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28f0…ceabbacked Yes2c7,831$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed Yes5c7,561$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.494528.9%13 W · 32 L+5.1wins+0.11per pick18cpaid+121.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4440…959abacked Yes24c7,559$1,783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,783.2140%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes10c7,518$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.021,0249.1%93 W · 931 L-25.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-55.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes2c7,134$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.042934.1%12 W · 281 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes10c6,636$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.86908.9%8 W · 82 L-0.3wins0.00per pick9cpaid-46.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd353…f6acbacked Yes8c6,029$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.891127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-47.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes11c5,253$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.67616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick6cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc23b…24f9backed Yes9c5,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick10cpaid+163.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2977…8abfbacked Yes24c5,000$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,22010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes6c4,737$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.482725.9%7 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-33.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8026…2f99backed Yes4c4,494$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.73520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-73.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb119…f8cdbacked Yes18c4,493$808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$808.24922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+39.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed Yes18c4,477$809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$808.714520%9 W · 36 L-4.8wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-57.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbf21…be19backed Yes8c4,359$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.536041.7%25 W · 35 L+7.6wins+0.13per pick29cpaid+161.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3bea…f95abacked Yes10c4,307$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.1260%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x742c…acc0backed Yes20c4,279$844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$843.714134.1%14 W · 27 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeefa…c780backed Yes21c4,265$903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902.78650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0120…797abacked Yes3c4,140$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.27333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick7cpaid+191.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes11c4,062$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.944122%9 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee4…276fbacked Yes12c4,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+262.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c25…7e39backed Yes5c3,992$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes2c3,913$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.91520%3 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick16cpaid+46.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65a0…ebecbacked Yes28c3,838$1,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,078.37250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-22.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2708…bd47backed Yes4c3,701$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.54540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+28.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47fc…8d6bbacked Yes13c3,636$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.4728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-0.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf584…803cbacked Yes3c3,524$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick3cpaid+71%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfae6…c165backed Yes16c3,405$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x903f…e556backed Yes7c3,332$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.261020%2 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick8cpaid+72.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x506d…6654backed Yes24c3,288$797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$797.02425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-43.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55b6…7a3abacked Yes22c3,263$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710.31520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe76b…e02abacked Yes19c3,141$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.05714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-41.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18c0…1ce7backed Yes15c3,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.93616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-69.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d3e…783bbacked Yes15c2,958$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.633268.8%22 W · 10 L+7.5wins+0.24per pick45cpaid+68.1%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x064a…6007backed Yes17c2,914$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes16c2,848$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.5330718.6%57 W · 250 L-17.8wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-34%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c2,648$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.462324.3%10 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick5cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42c0…fe99backed Yes13c2,548$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x42c2…498ebacked Yes15c2,525$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.3450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x622f…9992backed Yes11c2,506$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.376361.9%39 W · 24 L+6.6wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+10.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7ff3…00b3backed Yes12c2,425$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.821833.3%6 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x878e…a074backed Yes24c2,417$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2077…826abacked Yes9c2,328$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1dd…5625backed Yes3c2,314$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.42333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick6cpaid+180.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeec5…b6febacked No80c2,284$1,826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.912462.5%15 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x707b…416abacked Yes17c2,196$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.29520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc22c…bfc7backed Yes8c2,100$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.37425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-63.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd3…d6b2backed Yes5c2,038$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b7c…9ad8backed Yes20c2,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8c…6657backed Yes25c2,000$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.72740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf85f…9800backed Yes13c2,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick44cpaid-2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6db5…497dbacked Yes1c2,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes20c1,936$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.6732023.4%75 W · 245 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x80ed…ce26backed Yes4c1,933$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.45560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+16.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ab5…e56fbacked Yes17c1,855$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3102133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x477f…b715backed Yes25c1,785$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa252…dbf4backed Yes23c1,771$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes2c1,763$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.51147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+30.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf059…6f38backed Yes11c1,743$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.26520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-67.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c9e…190bbacked Yes14c1,731$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.84818.8%9 W · 39 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26b3…e59fbacked Yes29c1,724$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50060%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b97…3f54backed Yes12c1,683$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6d43…743bbacked Yes6c1,675$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes6c1,643$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.630238.1%115 W · 187 L+11.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba50…9f97backed Yes2c1,606$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick20cpaid+15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x16cb…533fbacked Yes5c1,600$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2450…8108backed Yes32c1,589$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.17757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes2c1,585$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7765.3%4 W · 72 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa90f…62d6backed Yes32c1,577$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa97e…24ffbacked Yes6c1,575$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.143013.3%4 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid+31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x402e…5d12backed No79c1,571$1,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.85944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+115.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3103…5ef3backed Yes18c1,539$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes20c1,528$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.83312.1%4 W · 29 L-5.6wins-0.17per pick29cpaid-60.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed Yes14c1,528$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.591931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-2.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes6c1,501$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.82944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick24cpaid+125.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xad23…47c4backed Yes16c1,500$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.61154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3439…2985backed Yes14c1,487$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick15cpaid+14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes2c1,400$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick2cpaid+63%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12c3…a470backed Yes7c1,375$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaee8…1154backed Yes16c1,362$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.342425%6 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40b1…d3c9backed Yes5c1,341$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.251030%3 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-56.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x099d…8c53backed Yes8c1,293$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1947…02b4backed Yes8c1,287$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.8230%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a99…df14backed Yes18c1,285$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.08333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-47%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf61f…592cbacked Yes8c1,258$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.5830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5633…6c51backed Yes20c1,250$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.04333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.