Tennis · resolved market
Swiss Indoors Basel: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marin Cilic
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80893fcdc6108b20b0dd383bfc51e07fbbde36ca8d58f9593138a5c5c0400e32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auger-Aliassimeof Auger-Aliassime, Cilic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,481
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,145
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,481 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Cilic | 27c | 15,000$4,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,049.98 | 392 | 49.7%195 W · 197 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3dd…a7e0backed Auger-Aliassime | 73c | 11,802$8,615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,186.44 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5836…27bdbacked Cilic | 16c | 10,304$1,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,667.43 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Cilic | 17c | 3,735$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.13 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Auger-Aliassime | 77c | 1,667$1,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.12 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aec…7d3cbacked Auger-Aliassime | 76c | 1,311$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.95 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Auger-Aliassime | 72c | 1,082$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.82 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c6…f706backed Cilic | 28c | 892.86$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b1…a75ebacked Cilic | 27c | 851.85$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Cilic | 7c | 689.59$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.78 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Cilic | 15c | 687$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 189 | 33.9%64 W · 125 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Cilic | 17c | 597.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa576…89a4backed Cilic | 28c | 500$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Cilic | 28c | 500$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Cilic | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 528 | 44.7%236 W · 292 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Cilic | 15c | 490.46$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.74 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Cilic | 26c | 473.14$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.02 | 178 | 23%41 W · 137 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Auger-Aliassime | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…73cebacked Auger-Aliassime | 74c | 366.84$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.38 | 239 | 69.9%167 W · 72 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Auger-Aliassime | 72c | 319.38$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.43 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0f…559abacked Auger-Aliassime | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -6.0wins | -0.21per pick | 62cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Auger-Aliassime | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8406…0176backed Auger-Aliassime | 79c | 240.52$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.51 | 106 | 54.7%58 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Auger-Aliassime | 74c | 200$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.4 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf51…4b53backed Cilic | 25c | 199.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Cilic | 26c | 170.39$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 66 | 28.8%19 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fd…5b3cbacked Cilic | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x893c…b437backed Auger-Aliassime | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bef…b7c2backed Auger-Aliassime | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…f1b3backed Auger-Aliassime | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Auger-Aliassime | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x875c…d3e8backed Auger-Aliassime | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…7392backed Auger-Aliassime | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dd…69d2backed Cilic | 28c | 128$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7955…1784backed Auger-Aliassime | 73c | 128$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Auger-Aliassime | 75c | 120$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Auger-Aliassime | 74c | 116.22$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ee…efe0backed Auger-Aliassime | 79c | 114.41$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Cilic | 11c | 109.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Cilic | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Auger-Aliassime | 72c | 99.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08cc…da60backed Auger-Aliassime | 73c | 96$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8b…21d7backed Auger-Aliassime | 73c | 95.89$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb32e…a46abacked Cilic | 24c | 90$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Cilic | 28c | 89.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 243 | 40.3%98 W · 145 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7034…ac7dbacked Cilic | 28c | 85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0d…808abacked Auger-Aliassime | 73c | 85$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Cilic | 26c | 82.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Cilic | 26c | 76.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f8…2d91backed Cilic | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe394…920cbacked Auger-Aliassime | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629f…3f9dbacked Cilic | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b55…2eaebacked Auger-Aliassime | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9999…9868backed Auger-Aliassime | 74c | 48.64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14ed…e223backed Cilic | 28c | 47.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4a…9373backed Auger-Aliassime | 78c | 37.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 129 | 74.4%96 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcedc…1603backed Auger-Aliassime | 72c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7fc…bffabacked Auger-Aliassime | 74c | 35.88$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Auger-Aliassime | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1419…94efbacked Auger-Aliassime | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3088…2b3ebacked Auger-Aliassime | 75c | 30.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1e7bbacked Auger-Aliassime | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x398e…f259backed Auger-Aliassime | 73c | 27.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9714…3014backed Auger-Aliassime | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a88…fd7fbacked Auger-Aliassime | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x963a…fc4cbacked Auger-Aliassime | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4392…0da3backed Auger-Aliassime | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed Auger-Aliassime | 70c | 24.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e2…9710backed Auger-Aliassime | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fb…2b2abacked Auger-Aliassime | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 44 | 75%33 W · 11 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa65e…8415backed Auger-Aliassime | 74c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.