TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Bayern München win on 2025-10-25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,294,388
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,494,356

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,294,388 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 176 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed No19c212,918$39,979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,979.063,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…ef38backed Yes80c100,000$80,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,0002850%14 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed No19c86,556$16,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,578.133429.4%10 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+19.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc2c8…5471backed No18c85,357$15,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,225.062528%7 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe895…c3dabacked No19c77,008$14,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,310.1640%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0aa3…64e9backed No18c48,171$8,671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,670.781656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+15.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed No20c40,910$8,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,071.9319153.9%103 W · 88 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed No20c33,753$6,652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,652.2476234.8%265 W · 497 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked No19c27,045$5,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,138.585052%26 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked No19c21,242$4,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0361163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick43cpaid+44.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xade8…b0bdbacked No18c21,213$3,751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,751.353234.4%11 W · 21 L-4.2wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-51.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed No19c18,548$3,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,522.223333.3%11 W · 22 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+15.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf661…d170backed No19c16,000$3,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,05140%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed No19c15,346$2,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,991.865954.2%32 W · 27 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed No19c14,043$2,639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,638.74228.6%12 W · 30 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+16.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed Yes76c10,620$8,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,548.83357.6%19 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c95…ed41backed No19c10,500$1,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,994.991428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-16.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7865…4af9backed No19c10,000$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9004524.4%11 W · 34 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-5.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xad6a…9dbdbacked No19c8,068$1,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5332218.2%4 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-1.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaaf0…153ebacked No18c8,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,44010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57cd…a0fbbacked No16c6,287$1,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,029.392941.4%12 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No15c5,919$867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$866.772,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed No17c5,875$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.732630.8%8 W · 18 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick22cpaid+29%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2699…29f6backed No20c5,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0003050%15 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81e4…6f22backed No18c4,432$816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$815.83742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+45.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94fb…d6cbbacked No18c4,400$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.997423%17 W · 57 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a4f…3aa5backed No18c4,243$785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$784.7160%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc864…97dfbacked No20c4,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8001936.8%7 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+18.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed No18c4,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70023046.5%107 W · 123 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad46…65a7backed Yes80c3,929$3,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$791.941553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x260a…dbf6backed Yes78c3,673$2,882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$790.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e42…b020backed Yes80c3,609$2,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721.86540%2 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.38per pick78cpaid-49.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked No19c3,585$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$690.196451.6%33 W · 31 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked No20c3,167$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6401346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked No18c3,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5408752.9%46 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad94…85b1backed No19c2,982$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.582222.7%5 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-37.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x90e0…ff4cbacked No13c2,890$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.376010%6 W · 54 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+119.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaeed…074bbacked No19c2,577$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.713943.6%17 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x330b…69f1backed No20c2,500$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004042.5%17 W · 23 L-4.6wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-31%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x13de…e133backed Yes80c2,190$1,745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes78c2,126$1,663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.6212651.6%65 W · 61 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed No20c2,050$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4107111.3%8 W · 63 L-5.6wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-31.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x151f…807dbacked Yes79c1,942$1,539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.34475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57f2…d036backed Yes79c1,900$1,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.931968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No20c1,799$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.8824258.7%142 W · 100 L+11.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked No19c1,600$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.77758.4%45 W · 32 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-2.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x22ed…002bbacked No19c1,593$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.671030%3 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-36.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x377c…91aebacked No21c1,500$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3151723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-27.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd146…9bf0backed No19c1,460$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.485133.3%17 W · 34 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-22%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6834…c8d3backed No20c1,433$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.56633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-54.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9ea…380dbacked No19c1,397$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8261…a3f1backed Yes79c1,384$1,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.023100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+59.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb4a…4ef5backed No15c1,380$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f7b…d405backed No18c1,339$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.31020%2 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ac4…abafbacked Yes78c1,252$979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2731100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed No22c1,248$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.283650%18 W · 18 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+20.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb594…caeebacked No19c1,240$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked No18c1,185$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.3214846.6%69 W · 79 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50e5…e39fbacked No15c1,181$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.294650%23 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3520…f128backed Yes78c1,159$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.884100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+45.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3ae5…53c8backed No1c1,120$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.21233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+30.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed Yes75c1,000$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2502737%10 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-20.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e49…63f2backed No20c999.88$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.9815024%36 W · 114 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick26cpaid+8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05a3…14f4backed Yes77c950$732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.5366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed No19c932.16$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.7625659.4%152 W · 104 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked No21c887.03$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.7619347.2%91 W · 102 L-0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5015…b938backed Yes77c886.26$682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbea…1595backed Yes79c882.91$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.912100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+52.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes77c848$649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.2521041.9%88 W · 122 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked No18c699.99$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1288251.2%42 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed No18c699.98$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1269048.9%44 W · 46 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No14c699.25$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.0116542.4%70 W · 95 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf31…2931backed Yes80c692.5$554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.51376.9%10 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick72cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b59…6445backed Yes79c633$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.931681.3%13 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick66cpaid+21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfb49…43febacked Yes79c625$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x613e…cb44backed Yes77c623.34$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd687…c066backed Yes77c589.91$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf241…79cebacked Yes80c534.73$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e53…b9d1backed No19c526.32$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4f2…5bb5backed Yes79c506.34$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.334100%4 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Yes79c500$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1058459.5%50 W · 34 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked No18c499.96$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.994141.5%17 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed No19c484$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.7751136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e10…70f4backed No20c400$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809053.3%48 W · 42 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd8b…63b2backed Yes76c394.74$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.743770.3%26 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x58fa…54e7backed Yes77c373.55$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.922100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb3…f37fbacked No19c372.95$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694252.4%22 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed No19c337.92$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.6622854.8%125 W · 103 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed No18c322.76$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3655058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8dcf…146ebacked Yes76c320$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.8450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+26.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0774…99febacked No19c299.99$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-63.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Yes80c298$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.099173.6%67 W · 24 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick67cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5674…9b2abacked Yes78c283.25$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.01666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick61cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed No19c273.29$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.6813256.1%74 W · 58 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed No19c264.97$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.3410942.2%46 W · 63 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe011…e2aebacked Yes78c256.86$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.515100%5 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x340d…1335backed Yes80c250.04$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.043164.5%20 W · 11 L+5.3wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc613…6a7fbacked Yes80c250$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick75cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1889…0714backed No19c214.7$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.797052.9%37 W · 33 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-11.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x10ae…b243backed Yes77c210.73$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.