TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 December 29-January 4?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$840,616
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$819,531

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $840,616 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 392 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes38c62,483$23,523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,959.6258126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfec…cfabbacked No0c40,722$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes39c33,475$13,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,325.7287828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked No75c30,006$22,642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,641.9819535.4%69 W · 126 L-13.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-38.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7b44…4713backed No0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0154…15a8backed Yes41c29,314$11,919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,394.293953.8%21 W · 18 L+6.2wins+0.16per pick38cpaid-2.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4124…8af2backed Yes24c23,680$5,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,012.82152.4%11 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+20.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0ff3…b0febacked No61c20,000$12,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,214.327123.9%17 W · 54 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f61…7c21backed No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x421b…ac12backed Yes80c19,755$15,759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,995.924047.5%19 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb63a…4064backed Yes50c15,491$7,687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,803.5417231.4%54 W · 118 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd96a…4a84backed No41c12,191$4,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,996.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58f5…be7bbacked Yes32c11,230$3,621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,609.28933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed No75c10,000$7,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,50012025%30 W · 90 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5eb0…5012backed No49c10,000$4,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,900323.1%1 W · 31 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick14cpaid-95%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x04f2…ab0fbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd53…4d7ebacked No10c9,800$1,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02850%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d19…733abacked No44c8,453$3,699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,699.37366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02c1…2e70backed No40c8,263$3,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,284.82540%10 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+15.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf25…3b7fbacked No50c6,932$3,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,439.931450%7 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fd7…f31dbacked No10c6,821$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.2830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27a2…dd48backed Yes32c6,259$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,259.38633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1d4…64aebacked Yes29c6,125$1,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,330.936026.7%16 W · 44 L-5.6wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-33.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb187…44a9backed No74c5,823$4,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,309.0120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes23c5,672$1,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,358.0837745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b53…29eabacked No4c5,514$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70ed…10b4backed No74c4,604$3,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,401.866625.8%17 W · 49 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick29cpaid+33.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad86…b77bbacked No9c4,400$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07e9…0ec6backed No63c4,302$2,698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,698.520%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x01ca…2f1dbacked No63c4,009$2,526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,525.940%0 W · 4 L-2.3wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xce8f…4400backed No50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0004839.6%19 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf0e…1f6cbacked No77c3,963$3,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,044.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x707e…1960backed Yes34c3,921$1,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,578.0722550.2%113 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f38…e8f9backed No7c3,650$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24950%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1247…9ce9backed No58c3,600$2,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0754062.5%25 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7702…13d1backed No66c3,415$2,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,260.21464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6294…33f3backed No47c3,241$1,517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,516.666657.6%38 W · 28 L+6.9wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No55c3,232$1,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7807163.4%45 W · 26 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x87a8…ff2dbacked No74c3,000$2,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,214.99425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e52…9434backed Yes29c2,776$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,976.384920.4%10 W · 39 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-36.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc120…a562backed Yes27c2,599$714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,885.02425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid-9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xede7…e943backed Yes28c2,450$695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,754.69450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae8b…30e4backed Yes27c2,427$655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,771.93333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick16cpaid+23.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b7c…3ecabacked No10c2,200$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1517…5b34backed No79c2,139$1,686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,685.61323.1%3 W · 10 L-4.1wins-0.31per pick54cpaid-66.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xdc60…997cbacked No41c2,081$849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$848.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95e5…0920backed Yes37c2,036$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,286.07728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick16cpaid+28.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x59e0…71b2backed No1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf98f…e5c0backed No61c1,962$1,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,202.5120%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8546…fcefbacked No79c1,900$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick67cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c03…604ebacked Yes54c1,892$1,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$867.3617229.7%51 W · 121 L-13.0wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-47.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7334…81dabacked No40c1,800$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-56.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a87…4bbabacked Yes76c1,500$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.022100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc903…b175backed Yes19c1,500$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2151650%8 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+44.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6138…97a0backed Yes20c1,500$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2051747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+43.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30aa…2bddbacked Yes30c1,474$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,026.72933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-23.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0f…df30backed Yes33c1,443$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$968.01812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick23cpaid-62%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ff…d3bfbacked Yes14c1,429$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,228.575117.6%9 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bf…95d3backed No70c1,410$993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993.391323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.0wins-0.23per pick47cpaid-46.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x729a…c966backed No53c1,400$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.992250%11 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62f5…eaaebacked Yes36c1,396$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$895.582330.4%7 W · 16 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-35.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb60e…3574backed Yes29c1,374$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$976.844658.7%27 W · 19 L+5.3wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+35.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6f24…395ebacked No73c1,301$946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85e2…0980backed Yes54c1,292$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+84.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2615…c16dbacked No62c1,290$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8004242.9%18 W · 24 L-8.8wins-0.21per pick64cpaid-39.1%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xcd3a…4aa9backed No31c1,239$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf944…c249backed No8c1,191$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.4750%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9263…9872backed No50c1,176$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-58.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ef6…0454backed Yes20c1,141$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$909.02250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+145.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d3b…9672backed No43c1,098$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd99f…4768backed Yes30c1,080$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$756.933036.7%11 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7b9…b319backed Yes26c1,068$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$791.71910.5%2 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-52.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6dc…246ebacked No76c999.99$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$764.9913770.1%96 W · 41 L+9.4wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb401…df2abacked No50c999.68$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.842142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-28%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd30…c8dbbacked No54c969.94$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bb3…5affbacked No53c926.05$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f19…f012backed Yes39c900.25$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.11633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+12.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes20c893.93$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$713.291216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+20.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa38…45debacked No60c801.87$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2de4…784dbacked No77c788.27$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes28c763.63$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.7664812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5b86…0669backed Yes46c718.12$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.42128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-81.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4378…e9f3backed No75c665.04$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c10…df5cbacked No46c659.99$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.4955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick63cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes24c657.29$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.0863835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bee…5628backed No9c650$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes29c650$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.512012.5%15 W · 105 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-55.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7310…e776backed No40c649.12$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.65250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+75.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f28…667ebacked No77c644.31$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60f1…cb3ebacked Yes29c643.33$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.5312259.8%73 W · 49 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x65e7…89ffbacked Yes21c626.79$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.79598.5%5 W · 54 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-63.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked Yes39c625.35$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.5926274.4%195 W · 67 L+45.7wins+0.17per pick57cpaid+31.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x9197…08d4backed No67c600$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3992445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf53e…6c75backed Yes17c579.3$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.3633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+29.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9efe…02c9backed No31c577.57$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2510…60adbacked No63c543.46$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.156564.6%42 W · 23 L+6.9wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+15.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7fe1…5d8bbacked Yes21c526.1$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.621315.4%2 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid-27.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa75…81f2backed No40c522.09$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.1430%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x75ca…a461backed No72c500$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3602429.2%7 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-45.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes22c494.72$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.7831523.8%75 W · 240 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.