Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 December 29-January 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x133fa7d78c1a6f20fb37d453bd1ada897d856de8af6823372d140aac5b7a101c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $840,616
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $819,531
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $840,616 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 392 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 38c | 62,483$23,523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38,959.62 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfec…cfabbacked No | 0c | 40,722$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 39c | 33,475$13,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,325.72 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked No | 75c | 30,006$22,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,641.98 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b44…4713backed No | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0154…15a8backed Yes | 41c | 29,314$11,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,394.29 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +6.2wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4124…8af2backed Yes | 24c | 23,680$5,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,012.8 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff3…b0febacked No | 61c | 20,000$12,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,214.32 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f61…7c21backed No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x421b…ac12backed Yes | 80c | 19,755$15,759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,995.92 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…4064backed Yes | 50c | 15,491$7,687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,803.54 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…4a84backed No | 41c | 12,191$4,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,996.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f5…be7bbacked Yes | 32c | 11,230$3,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,609.28 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed No | 75c | 10,000$7,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,500 | 120 | 25%30 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb0…5012backed No | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,900 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -95%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04f2…ab0fbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd53…4d7ebacked No | 10c | 9,800$1,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,028 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d19…733abacked No | 44c | 8,453$3,699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,699.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c1…2e70backed No | 40c | 8,263$3,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,284.8 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf25…3b7fbacked No | 50c | 6,932$3,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,439.93 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd7…f31dbacked No | 10c | 6,821$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27a2…dd48backed Yes | 32c | 6,259$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,259.38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d4…64aebacked Yes | 29c | 6,125$1,794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,330.93 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb187…44a9backed No | 74c | 5,823$4,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,309.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 23c | 5,672$1,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,358.08 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b53…29eabacked No | 4c | 5,514$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70ed…10b4backed No | 74c | 4,604$3,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,401.86 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad86…b77bbacked No | 9c | 4,400$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07e9…0ec6backed No | 63c | 4,302$2,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,698.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…2f1dbacked No | 63c | 4,009$2,526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,525.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce8f…4400backed No | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0e…1f6cbacked No | 77c | 3,963$3,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,044.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 34c | 3,921$1,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,578.07 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f38…e8f9backed No | 7c | 3,650$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1247…9ce9backed No | 58c | 3,600$2,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,075 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7702…13d1backed No | 66c | 3,415$2,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,260.2 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6294…33f3backed No | 47c | 3,241$1,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,516.66 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed No | 55c | 3,232$1,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,780 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87a8…ff2dbacked No | 74c | 3,000$2,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,214.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Yes | 29c | 2,776$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,976.38 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a562backed Yes | 27c | 2,599$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,885.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xede7…e943backed Yes | 28c | 2,450$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,754.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8b…30e4backed Yes | 27c | 2,427$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,771.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7c…3ecabacked No | 10c | 2,200$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1517…5b34backed No | 79c | 2,139$1,686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,685.6 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -4.1wins | -0.31per pick | 54cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdc60…997cbacked No | 41c | 2,081$849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95e5…0920backed Yes | 37c | 2,036$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,286.07 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59e0…71b2backed No | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf98f…e5c0backed No | 61c | 1,962$1,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,202.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8546…fcefbacked No | 79c | 1,900$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked Yes | 54c | 1,892$1,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$867.36 | 172 | 29.7%51 W · 121 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7334…81dabacked No | 40c | 1,800$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a87…4bbabacked Yes | 76c | 1,500$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc903…b175backed Yes | 19c | 1,500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,215 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed Yes | 20c | 1,500$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,205 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30aa…2bddbacked Yes | 30c | 1,474$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,026.72 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0f…df30backed Yes | 33c | 1,443$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$968.01 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -62%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ff…d3bfbacked Yes | 14c | 1,429$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,228.57 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bf…95d3backed No | 70c | 1,410$993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$993.39 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 47cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…c966backed No | 53c | 1,400$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.99 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62f5…eaaebacked Yes | 36c | 1,396$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895.58 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb60e…3574backed Yes | 29c | 1,374$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$976.84 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +5.3wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…395ebacked No | 73c | 1,301$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85e2…0980backed Yes | 54c | 1,292$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2615…c16dbacked No | 62c | 1,290$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -8.8wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3a…4aa9backed No | 31c | 1,239$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf944…c249backed No | 8c | 1,191$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.47 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9263…9872backed No | 50c | 1,176$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef6…0454backed Yes | 20c | 1,141$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +145.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…9672backed No | 43c | 1,098$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd99f…4768backed Yes | 30c | 1,080$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756.93 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b9…b319backed Yes | 26c | 1,068$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.7 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…246ebacked No | 76c | 999.99$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.99 | 137 | 70.1%96 W · 41 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb401…df2abacked No | 50c | 999.68$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.84 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd30…c8dbbacked No | 54c | 969.94$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb3…5affbacked No | 53c | 926.05$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…f012backed Yes | 39c | 900.25$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 20c | 893.93$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.29 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa38…45debacked No | 60c | 801.87$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2de4…784dbacked No | 77c | 788.27$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 28c | 763.63$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.76 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b86…0669backed Yes | 46c | 718.12$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.42 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4378…e9f3backed No | 75c | 665.04$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…df5cbacked No | 46c | 659.99$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 24c | 657.29$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.08 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bee…5628backed No | 9c | 650$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes | 29c | 650$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.5 | 120 | 12.5%15 W · 105 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7310…e776backed No | 40c | 649.12$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f28…667ebacked No | 77c | 644.31$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60f1…cb3ebacked Yes | 29c | 643.33$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.53 | 122 | 59.8%73 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65e7…89ffbacked Yes | 21c | 626.79$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.79 | 59 | 8.5%5 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 39c | 625.35$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.59 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9197…08d4backed No | 67c | 600$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf53e…6c75backed Yes | 17c | 579.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9efe…02c9backed No | 31c | 577.57$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…60adbacked No | 63c | 543.46$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.15 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe1…5d8bbacked Yes | 21c | 526.1$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.62 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa75…81f2backed No | 40c | 522.09$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ca…a461backed No | 72c | 500$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 22c | 494.72$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.78 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 December 29-January 4?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 December 29-January 4?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $104,000 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 December 29-January 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.