Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 December 29-January 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcf207b1981c5bb6795e158a10cb668ceb0336a755199f06027caad7782938ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $208,975
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $199,449
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $208,975 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ff3…b0febacked Yes | 1c | 25,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes | 0c | 13,003$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 80 | 0%0 W · 80 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90bb…531fbacked Yes | 0c | 12,302$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 71 | 0%0 W · 71 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc891…a35ebacked Yes | 3c | 11,000$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.99 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 20cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c5…2788backed Yes | 0c | 9,421$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 1c | 6,356$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.64 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 6c | 6,043$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.74 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 4,356$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 3,226$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.19 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d2…33bfbacked Yes | 0c | 2,785$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +216.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70ed…10b4backed Yes | 5c | 2,504$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.18 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,402$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.44 | 120 | 3.3%4 W · 116 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 5c | 2,257$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.6 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f60…4bd4backed Yes | 1c | 2,229$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 3cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38b0…e8eebacked Yes | 9c | 1,845$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.06 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 4c | 1,327$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.62 | 146 | 3.4%5 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,302$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 85 | 5.9%5 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 1,034$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 3c | 748.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 54 | 11.1%6 W · 48 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f0…4a96backed Yes | 7c | 717.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…4b7cbacked Yes | 15c | 686.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3301…4dd8backed Yes | 2c | 660$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes | 5c | 640$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 614.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 3c | 600$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 107 | 3.7%4 W · 103 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01f0…8670backed Yes | 15c | 473.81$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.98 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 325.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 11c | 322.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8584…f7bbbacked Yes | 11c | 291$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 6c | 200.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed44…0cf6backed Yes | 17c | 109.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1214…cf28backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87f0…aff5backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 7cpaid | +128.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…10ccbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 December 29-January 4?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 December 29-January 4?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $104,000 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 December 29-January 4?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 December 29-January 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.