Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 December 29-January 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44a7a332a5714322cb90f2d74e046fcdd649908a8413a65da153974ca118531b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $309,826
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $298,356
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $309,826 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5eb0…5012backed Yes | 4c | 57,361$2,457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,456.85 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -95%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe14f…a357backed Yes | 6c | 11,841$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.42 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…e383backed Yes | 4c | 5,756$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.11 | 90 | 4.4%4 W · 86 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 1c | 4,994$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.57 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 4,559$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.03 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 4,429$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.57 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 3,942$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.82 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8435…ad98backed Yes | 0c | 3,346$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 4c | 3,331$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.34 | 120 | 3.3%4 W · 116 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x512c…d419backed Yes | 3c | 3,016$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4798…576bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,146$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.17 | 85 | 5.9%5 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce7b…7677backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 3c | 1,970$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.52 | 146 | 3.4%5 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0f…df30backed Yes | 6c | 1,968$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -62%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 3c | 1,911$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.37 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…4b7cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,702$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80cc…b5a4backed Yes | 6c | 1,672$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.82 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 1c | 1,479$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 3c | 1,270$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 107 | 3.7%4 W · 103 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f0…4a96backed Yes | 4c | 1,190$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47b0…3b60backed Yes | 4c | 1,178$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f0…f088backed Yes | 4c | 1,136$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 1,100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…4064backed Yes | 2c | 1,064$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…1338backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe9…bb0abacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 167 | 29.3%49 W · 118 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeafb…3179backed Yes | 3c | 999.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 2c | 885.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04f2…ab0fbacked Yes | 1c | 782.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5553…4fa9backed Yes | 2c | 587.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 3c | 552.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b9…357cbacked Yes | 2c | 543.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 8cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7b…55bebacked Yes | 5c | 500$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed Yes | 4c | 486.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9b…afddbacked Yes | 6c | 351.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44a6…d1bbbacked Yes | 5c | 229.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc474…6061backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x381b…0e2ebacked Yes | 6c | 159.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 December 29-January 4?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 December 29-January 4?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $104,000 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 December 29-January 4?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 December 29-January 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.