Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 December 29-January 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x721352a23e21bfb3c88c734636fd873c4a4fb8bbbf83c00395cd514f7599b9b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $695,985
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $606,484
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $695,985 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 143 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5fe…7a9cbacked Yes | 9c | 35,000$3,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,220.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 12c | 25,941$3,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,082.76 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb0…5012backed Yes | 9c | 21,743$1,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,939.79 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -95%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 8c | 19,062$1,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,598.57 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…4064backed Yes | 7c | 10,435$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.7 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…e383backed Yes | 5c | 10,223$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.35 | 90 | 4.4%4 W · 86 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b86…0669backed Yes | 1c | 9,798$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.95 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 7c | 8,049$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.71 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes | 3c | 7,938$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 137 | 9.5%13 W · 124 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 7,886$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.21 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 7c | 6,915$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.34 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97bc…30cdbacked Yes | 19c | 6,552$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 67 | 23.9%16 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +111.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb187…44a9backed Yes | 1c | 6,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7af4…ddddbacked Yes | 4c | 5,397$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.06 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8763…4c54backed Yes | 12c | 5,107$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf25…3b7fbacked Yes | 11c | 4,997$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.65 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 4,797$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.17 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4c15…cc6bbacked Yes | 6c | 4,698$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.84 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b99…1cd7backed Yes | 8c | 4,615$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.22 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 15c | 4,462$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.41 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x421b…ac12backed Yes | 10c | 4,249$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.16 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 4,199$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.3 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42d8…2de9backed Yes | 5c | 4,146$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x615e…5295backed Yes | 2c | 4,069$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.65 | 227 | 0.9%2 W · 225 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1f…a0c6backed Yes | 2c | 3,800$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0f…df30backed Yes | 13c | 3,651$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -62%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 6c | 3,298$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.29 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc96…111fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,057$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd99f…4768backed Yes | 10c | 3,000$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ed…bc2ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,992$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 7c | 2,841$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.79 | 120 | 3.3%4 W · 116 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 6c | 2,585$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.45 | 85 | 5.9%5 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62f5…eaaebacked Yes | 13c | 2,545$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.5 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeecd…4fefbacked Yes | 6c | 2,461$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.11 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…508abacked Yes | 5c | 2,289$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.57 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 14cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x959d…fe29backed Yes | 3c | 2,286$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 6c | 2,241$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.61 | 146 | 3.4%5 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551b…dfd1backed Yes | 11c | 2,101$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.21 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce7b…7677backed Yes | 10c | 2,024$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.42 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 7c | 1,959$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.63 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3635…cfaabacked Yes | 1c | 1,912$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,898$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d4…64aebacked Yes | 4c | 1,883$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.42 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ff…d3bfbacked Yes | 5c | 1,859$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea4…61c0backed Yes | 9c | 1,833$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65e7…89ffbacked Yes | 14c | 1,795$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.32 | 59 | 8.5%5 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…792bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,543$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 7c | 1,522$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.91 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x512c…d419backed Yes | 7c | 1,519$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7334…81dabacked Yes | 13c | 1,500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe14f…a357backed Yes | 12c | 1,475$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 7c | 1,463$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.36 | 107 | 3.7%4 W · 103 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd859…38c5backed Yes | 12c | 1,380$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.8 | 143 | 7.7%11 W · 132 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x381b…0e2ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,365$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.96 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ed…10b4backed Yes | 9c | 1,331$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.76 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef6…0454backed Yes | 5c | 1,210$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +145.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…deb6backed Yes | 10c | 1,200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc7…68a3backed Yes | 9c | 1,163$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa229…0b73backed Yes | 3c | 1,081$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8f…899ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,058$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8af…9f61backed Yes | 2c | 1,045$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2844…5aa1backed Yes | 15c | 1,001$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,000$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 120 | 12.5%15 W · 105 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a5…83dbbacked Yes | 6c | 985.69$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +6.4wins | +0.18per pick | 24cpaid | +109.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf98f…e5c0backed Yes | 29c | 911.49$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9472…ecd6backed Yes | 2c | 899.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 6c | 862.25$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.21 | 54 | 11.1%6 W · 48 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…51e0backed Yes | 4c | 848.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21cc…2024backed Yes | 2c | 843.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 13c | 801.1$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.78 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…0cb9backed Yes | 14c | 786.16$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6767…be76backed Yes | 5c | 707.69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc951…832fbacked Yes | 5c | 650$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b9…357cbacked Yes | 3c | 645.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 8cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95e5…0920backed Yes | 12c | 643.97$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.13 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc46f…c3fcbacked Yes | 8c | 618.14$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…88a8backed No | 75c | 600$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f0…4a96backed Yes | 9c | 577.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9849…676abacked Yes | 3c | 530.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x560f…a640backed Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc749…e803backed Yes | 5c | 520.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x400c…781ebacked Yes | 13c | 519.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.41 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf632…02aabacked Yes | 10c | 517.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.87 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfffd…af88backed Yes | 6c | 517.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e96…0b3bbacked Yes | 7c | 504.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf17f…b558backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -91.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38b0…e8eebacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5553…4fa9backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02d0…f17bbacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47b0…3b60backed Yes | 8c | 470.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63b9…b8acbacked Yes | 5c | 426.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe1…5d8bbacked Yes | 15c | 406.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04f2…ab0fbacked Yes | 5c | 403.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24f8…e875backed Yes | 12c | 399.68$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…445dbacked Yes | 11c | 363.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 27cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeee6…b66ebacked Yes | 5c | 360.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x438c…481abacked Yes | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8435…ad98backed Yes | 11c | 350$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…7f4cbacked Yes | 14c | 348.59$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 December 29-January 4?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 December 29-January 4?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $104,000 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 December 29-January 4?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 December 29-January 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.