TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 December 29-January 4?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$695,985
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$606,484

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $695,985 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 143 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf5fe…7a9cbacked Yes9c35,000$3,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,220.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes12c25,941$3,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,082.7658126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5eb0…5012backed Yes9c21,743$1,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,939.79323.1%1 W · 31 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick14cpaid-95%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes8c19,062$1,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,598.5787828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb63a…4064backed Yes7c10,435$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723.717231.4%54 W · 118 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x76c8…e383backed Yes5c10,223$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.35904.4%4 W · 86 L+0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b86…0669backed Yes1c9,798$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.95128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-81.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes7c8,049$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.7123411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes3c7,938$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001379.5%13 W · 124 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+25.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c7,886$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.211,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes7c6,915$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.342999.4%28 W · 271 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x97bc…30cdbacked Yes19c6,552$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2506723.9%16 W · 51 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+111.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb187…44a9backed Yes1c6,000$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7af4…ddddbacked Yes4c5,397$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.06714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-71.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8763…4c54backed Yes12c5,107$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf25…3b7fbacked Yes11c4,997$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.651450%7 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes13c4,797$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.1764812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4c15…cc6bbacked Yes6c4,698$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.84195.3%1 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick10cpaid-41.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b99…1cd7backed Yes8c4,615$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.221010%1 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-42.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x707e…1960backed Yes15c4,462$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.4122550.2%113 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x421b…ac12backed Yes10c4,249$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.164047.5%19 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes7c4,199$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.36785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42d8…2de9backed Yes5c4,146$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-65.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x615e…5295backed Yes2c4,069$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.652270.9%2 W · 225 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-94.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf1f…a0c6backed Yes2c3,800$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c0f…df30backed Yes13c3,651$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick23cpaid-62%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes6c3,298$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.2931523.8%75 W · 240 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc96…111fbacked Yes3c3,057$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd99f…4768backed Yes10c3,000$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2853036.7%11 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9ed…bc2ebacked Yes4c2,992$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes7c2,841$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.791203.3%4 W · 116 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-61.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes6c2,585$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.45855.9%5 W · 80 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62f5…eaaebacked Yes13c2,545$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.52330.4%7 W · 16 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-35.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeecd…4fefbacked Yes6c2,461$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.113426.5%9 W · 25 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-42.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x108d…508abacked Yes5c2,289$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.57234.3%1 W · 22 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick14cpaid-88.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x959d…fe29backed Yes3c2,286$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes6c2,241$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.611463.4%5 W · 141 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-57.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x551b…dfd1backed Yes11c2,101$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.211513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-72.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xce7b…7677backed Yes10c2,024$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.424617.4%8 W · 38 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes7c1,959$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.632125.7%12 W · 200 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3635…cfaabacked Yes1c1,912$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes7c1,898$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.51650%8 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1d4…64aebacked Yes4c1,883$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.426026.7%16 W · 44 L-5.6wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-33.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa9ff…d3bfbacked Yes5c1,859$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005117.6%9 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ea4…61c0backed Yes9c1,833$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65e7…89ffbacked Yes14c1,795$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.32598.5%5 W · 54 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-63.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f64…792bbacked Yes3c1,543$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-86.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes7c1,522$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.9163835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x512c…d419backed Yes7c1,519$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002828.6%8 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-20.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7334…81dabacked Yes13c1,500$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-56.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe14f…a357backed Yes12c1,475$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17770%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes7c1,463$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.361073.7%4 W · 103 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-53.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd859…38c5backed Yes12c1,380$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.81437.7%11 W · 132 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x381b…0e2ebacked Yes11c1,365$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.96616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick8cpaid-40.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70ed…10b4backed Yes9c1,331$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.766625.8%17 W · 49 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick29cpaid+33.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ef6…0454backed Yes5c1,210$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+145.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3920…deb6backed Yes10c1,200$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbc7…68a3backed Yes9c1,163$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-35.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa229…0b73backed Yes3c1,081$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-76.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf8f…899ebacked Yes5c1,058$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick8cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8af…9f61backed Yes2c1,045$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2844…5aa1backed Yes15c1,001$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes9c1,000$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.812012.5%15 W · 105 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-55.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd3a5…83dbbacked Yes6c985.69$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583542.9%15 W · 20 L+6.4wins+0.18per pick24cpaid+109.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf98f…e5c0backed Yes29c911.49$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9472…ecd6backed Yes2c899.93$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes6c862.25$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.215411.1%6 W · 48 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick4cpaid-5.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x41ae…51e0backed Yes4c848.44$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9714019.3%27 W · 113 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+119.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x21cc…2024backed Yes2c843.2$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes13c801.1$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.781216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+20.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c67…0cb9backed Yes14c786.16$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.49633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-52.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6767…be76backed Yes5c707.69$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick20cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc951…832fbacked Yes5c650$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.251816.7%3 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick12cpaid-13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4b9…357cbacked Yes3c645.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20922.2%2 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick8cpaid+50.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x95e5…0920backed Yes12c643.97$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.13728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick16cpaid+28.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc46f…c3fcbacked Yes8c618.14$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-70.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27f7…88a8backed No75c600$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2f0…4a96backed Yes9c577.78$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick10cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9849…676abacked Yes3c530.97$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x560f…a640backed Yes19c526.32$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc749…e803backed Yes5c520.83$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251921.1%4 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick21cpaid-44.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x400c…781ebacked Yes13c519.99$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.411127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-29.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf632…02aabacked Yes10c517.87$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.877321.9%16 W · 57 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick15cpaid+51.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfffd…af88backed Yes6c517.1$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.06250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e96…0b3bbacked Yes7c504.13$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3560%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf17f…b558backed Yes6c500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30224.5%1 W · 21 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick12cpaid-91.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x38b0…e8eebacked Yes10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-44.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5553…4fa9backed Yes4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-63.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6138…97a0backed Yes11c500$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+43.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02d0…f17bbacked Yes5c500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47b0…3b60backed Yes8c470.59$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402313%3 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick16cpaid+26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63b9…b8acbacked Yes5c426.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fe1…5d8bbacked Yes15c406.14$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601315.4%2 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid-27.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04f2…ab0fbacked Yes5c403.7$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24f8…e875backed Yes12c399.68$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfad4…445dbacked Yes11c363.64$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.19per pick27cpaid-88.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xeee6…b66ebacked Yes5c360.42$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x438c…481abacked Yes14c357.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8435…ad98backed Yes11c350$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb36…7f4cbacked Yes14c348.59$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.