Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 December 29-January 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0541a8185879deee40edc70091a2b65727f5035b3cdd77963e16f4e3db716a35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $505,872
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $535,756
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $505,872 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99c8…bacabacked Yes | 0c | 59,100$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5f…08f0backed Yes | 0c | 54,075$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb4…6f7fbacked Yes | 5c | 20,706$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes | 0c | 16,861$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 80 | 0%0 W · 80 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 14c | 16,067$2,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,285.04 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90bb…531fbacked Yes | 0c | 15,674$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 71 | 0%0 W · 71 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c5…2788backed Yes | 0c | 11,498$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 18c | 11,000$1,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,980 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d5…b3d8backed Yes | 1c | 10,348$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b86…0669backed Yes | 0c | 6,895$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 1c | 6,386$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc747…324bbacked Yes | 2c | 6,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +12.3wins | +0.19per pick | 4cpaid | +272.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff3…b0febacked No | 62c | 5,000$3,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,899.84 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,410$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.7 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc891…a35ebacked Yes | 11c | 4,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 20cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 15c | 3,497$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.74 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87a8…ff2dbacked Yes | 14c | 3,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 2,247$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.16 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 30c | 2,184$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.46 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70ed…10b4backed Yes | 15c | 2,064$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.9 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f60…4bd4backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 3cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 6c | 2,000$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.88 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7702…13d1backed No | 76c | 1,894$1,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.56 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,854$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.51 | 120 | 3.3%4 W · 116 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd6…5f62backed No | 68c | 1,500$1,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.71 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,401$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d4…64aebacked Yes | 34c | 1,393$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.49 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 18c | 1,350$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.78 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,155$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.35 | 85 | 5.9%5 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…b6e8backed Yes | 20c | 1,113$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34f…b81abacked Yes | 19c | 1,100$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 2c | 955.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 14c | 829.39$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.9 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb60e…3574backed Yes | 23c | 728.39$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.18 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +5.3wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…51e0backed Yes | 2c | 714.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 3c | 679.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 146 | 3.4%5 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 640.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9026…8df5backed Yes | 3c | 581.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5869…071dbacked No | 65c | 541.28$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.45 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3301…4dd8backed Yes | 5c | 540.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x950e…3a2cbacked Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd859…38c5backed Yes | 5c | 435.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 143 | 7.7%11 W · 132 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 25c | 422.07$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.33 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 3c | 402.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 107 | 3.7%4 W · 103 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 6c | 402.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc749…e803backed Yes | 7c | 357.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53b5…d768backed Yes | 18c | 350$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes | 10c | 320$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc951…832fbacked Yes | 11c | 299.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f0…4a96backed Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…c6fcbacked No | 74c | 270$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.1 | 112 | 65.2%73 W · 39 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01f0…8670backed No | 71c | 263.65$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.08 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff8…e433backed Yes | 6c | 255.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d35…dd6abacked Yes | 5c | 200.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45f1…dbd8backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93c4…dca6backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18f4…c58fbacked Yes | 10c | 143.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1214…cf28backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6775…745fbacked Yes | 18c | 82.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 12cpaid | +799.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4739…33c9backed Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x010b…81dcbacked Yes | 15c | 77.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44fc…cbe3backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 10cpaid | +474.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65ec…66a2backed Yes | 21c | 49.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…7c9abacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c5…0951backed No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x386e…3463backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 December 29-January 4?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 December 29-January 4?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $104,000 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 December 29-January 4?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 December 29-January 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.