Tennis · resolved market
BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Ugo Humbert vs Casper Ruud
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62b9cbb6dddcf3d217b877fb098c91bf6a48a7d9afe38037d3e8ff8c38103026
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ruudof Humbert, Ruud
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,938
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $102,665
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,938 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Ruud | 69c | 26,334$18,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,173.23 | 189 | 33.9%64 W · 125 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Humbert | 31c | 22,832$7,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,118.34 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Humbert | 31c | 2,987$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924.01 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Humbert | 38c | 2,834$1,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071.56 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…3b99backed Humbert | 16c | 1,500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Ruud | 63c | 1,379$865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.91 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Ruud | 61c | 1,265$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.94 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe14c…dab3backed Ruud | 62c | 947.73$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…65a7backed Ruud | 76c | 861.71$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.35 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Humbert | 38c | 811.26$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.28 | 189 | 43.4%82 W · 107 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Humbert | 32c | 797.32$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.42 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Ruud | 65c | 615$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.25 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Humbert | 14c | 481.55$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.25 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Humbert | 33c | 442.64$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.12 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Humbert | 41c | 429$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.89 | 139 | 35.3%49 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Humbert | 35c | 360.45$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.45 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…e7b3backed Ruud | 62c | 354.84$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.84 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Humbert | 28c | 299.99$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.99 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Humbert | 31c | 284$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.04 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3405…5101backed Ruud | 62c | 282.26$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.26 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Humbert | 17c | 273.53$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 645 | 40.2%259 W · 386 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Ruud | 62c | 258.06$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.06 | 360 | 47.2%170 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed Ruud | 62c | 232$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.16 | 704 | 65.2%459 W · 245 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Humbert | 31c | 182.65$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.79 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed Humbert | 39c | 165.79$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Ruud | 64c | 159.47$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.72 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Humbert | 38c | 123.08$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Ruud | 61c | 112.32$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.32 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed Ruud | 59c | 99.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Humbert | 41c | 90.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Ruud | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7641…e092backed Ruud | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Humbert | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Humbert | 40c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 606 | 41.6%252 W · 354 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa960…dbebbacked Ruud | 61c | 51.49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f8…2d91backed Humbert | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf2…85b7backed Ruud | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 88 | 58%51 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a4…333bbacked Humbert | 39c | 47.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf8…cb04backed Ruud | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…e758backed Ruud | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2db8…e042backed Ruud | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 749 | 61.8%463 W · 286 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c3…cc88backed Ruud | 62c | 28.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8f…8159backed Ruud | 61c | 27.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5a…9619backed Ruud | 64c | 25.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3e…0b56backed Ruud | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd26…6b44backed Ruud | 61c | 24.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.