TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

FC Bayern München vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$176,800
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$195,502

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $176,800 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa6ee…697bbacked Over62c40,062$24,964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,098.554443.2%19 W · 25 L-4.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-28.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x84cb…28adbacked Under50c28,020$13,919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,919.21933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-51%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Under37c19,657$7,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,368.15954.2%32 W · 27 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7a8…14f8backed Over65c10,764$7,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,764.03475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under39c10,337$4,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,043.083,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under35c6,854$2,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,388.721,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78ad…45ccbacked Under40c6,199$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5001752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5677…2ce9backed Over67c5,944$4,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,932.081747.1%8 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick61cpaid-13.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa445…6711backed Over74c4,680$3,452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,227.734975.5%37 W · 12 L+8.2wins+0.17per pick59cpaid+26.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xaf5d…7253backed Over46c4,350$2,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,349333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa39a…1246backed Over60c4,201$2,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,681.928068.8%55 W · 25 L+7.5wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Under37c3,004$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,119.5776234.8%265 W · 497 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Over66c2,903$1,916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9872458.3%14 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+21.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x85df…9124backed Under2c2,700$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick5cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over62c2,604$1,603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,000.3614157.4%81 W · 60 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under38c2,601$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990.3856547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Under39c2,487$970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9709455.3%52 W · 42 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under39c2,310$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$889.6544749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7197…14c8backed Over50c2,185$1,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,092.633246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Over50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00015847.5%75 W · 83 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Over63c2,000$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739.989854.1%53 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f86…2874backed Under39c1,644$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.94666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb52b…b156backed Under56c1,500$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$839.991154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Under35c1,500$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.9927726.4%73 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2c7…bd87backed Over56c1,410$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.11464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over59c1,253$737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.8878248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Under40c1,069$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.6319544.6%87 W · 108 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Over55c709.97$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.3775142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c6a…9717backed Over72c658.35$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.351566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f6b…075fbacked Under51c588.24$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3009951.5%51 W · 48 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9eca…fc20backed Over71c575$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.75785.7%6 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick73cpaid+13.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff63…5aa1backed Under39c570.85$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+173.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79cc…8026backed Over65c538.46$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.466350.8%32 W · 31 L-6.1wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-18.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7d56…0ba5backed Under41c530$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2151464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+27.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under38c438.11$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.4853645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf17e…0bd6backed Under54c425.22$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x172d…6f3ebacked Over59c400$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1649062.2%56 W · 34 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x04e3…69d1backed Under47c397.64$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.59633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-45.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb5b…eca0backed Over51c388.68$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.682548%12 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0157…d8dcbacked Over63c386.86$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.144860.4%29 W · 19 L+5.2wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+17%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6562…4e48backed Over69c384.04$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.3311065.5%72 W · 38 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3d0…ac67backed Under51c382$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4aa2…dc0abacked Over71c356.2$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.34100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+51%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x167c…a88bbacked Under38c349$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.72045%9 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ad5…37b9backed Over11c341.31$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.765230.8%16 W · 36 L+6.9wins+0.13per pick17cpaid+193.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd2ef…c56bbacked Over70c318.57$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.57560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Under35c300$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10511036.4%40 W · 70 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Under42c299.67$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1255623.2%13 W · 43 L+0.2wins0.00per pick23cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc87b…51d4backed Under55c290.91$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick61cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under49c289$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.6149143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x421b…8982backed Over70c284.61$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.38520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-71.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over72c277.78$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.7820957.4%120 W · 89 L-0.7wins0.00per pick58cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under39c270.22$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.0433340.8%136 W · 197 L-14.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under33c266.88$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.512,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Over62c250$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$959350.5%47 W · 46 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-0.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa35f…b58fbacked Over56c220.45$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9710642.5%45 W · 61 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x215b…3e6cbacked Under37c200$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+176.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4417…01eebacked Over63c200$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752650%13 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Under27c195.21$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.9716542.4%70 W · 95 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbc4…b2f8backed Over62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.29771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick66cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Under51c156.86$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803839.5%15 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8eda…1847backed Over50c151.69$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.543100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+67.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Under41c150$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.5837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-30.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72d7…1b97backed Over55c147.27$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.278932.6%29 W · 60 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb9b5…7ba6backed Over71c140.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.851637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21c2…1943backed Over61c133.9$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fa9…72dbbacked Over74c133$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.583966.7%26 W · 13 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e3a…265ebacked Over75c122.18$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.271861.1%11 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa354…b85fbacked Over47c114.38$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.675853.4%31 W · 27 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+21.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x784b…e729backed Over62c112$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x74c9…d064backed Over64c109.71$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.71580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+48.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cb8…5e8fbacked Over75c106.67$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bb3…5affbacked Under48c103.77$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354452.3%23 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x983a…ac6bbacked Under39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39580%4 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.40per pick40cpaid+98.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Under37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.58551.8%44 W · 41 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd42b…dac8backed Over65c92.31$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.31450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-28.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f32…97c2backed Over65c92.31$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.31250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3459…808abacked Under35c91.61$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.055621.4%12 W · 44 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over47c83.82$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.4748658.6%285 W · 201 L+44.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+33%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x021a…56cbbacked Over61c82.53$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.81616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick44cpaid-72.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9242…60babacked Under40c75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+17.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7563…1fb3backed Under36c74$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.64540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-47%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e5f…1dc6backed Under38c67.63$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.72725.9%7 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over74c65$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.921041.9%88 W · 122 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over62c64.21$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.0834655.5%192 W · 154 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc210…39fcbacked Under41c59.49$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.395052%26 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2074…767cbacked Under40c58.04$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5825…4ffbbacked Over63c55.56$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.561464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+24.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed Under37c54.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205955.9%33 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c14…9d72backed Under39c51.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd323…64acbacked Over71c50.24$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.572462.5%15 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0dd3…8254backed Under41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x55be…a73abacked Under40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44b8…a2d7backed Under42c47.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020540%82 W · 123 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x097f…df92backed Under42c47.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-39.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ddc…f21cbacked Over63c47.62$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.62560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0da9…9d56backed Over72c45.15$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.641050%5 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb063…c9d1backed Over47c42.55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.55875%6 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+46.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf292…b60cbacked Over55c41.11$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.56977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.28per pick50cpaid+127.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.