Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Bayern München vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa15ab6a1572328f613623d345e89920317e3f6b51bb1cd2500b70fea88b076d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,365
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,577
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,365 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 13c | 8,824$1,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,166.68 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc47f…94b4backed Under | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Under | 6c | 476.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 16c | 468.57$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.97 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cc…8026backed Over | 76c | 371.13$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.07 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc87b…51d4backed Over | 70c | 285.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.71 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8877…1fa6backed Over | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4417…01eebacked Over | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 8c | 134.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 165 | 42.4%70 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…7272backed Over | 74c | 121.43$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x884d…1da6backed Over | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Under | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec7…7796backed Under | 19c | 97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3a…265ebacked Over | 75c | 92.84$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x069b…0246backed Over | 67c | 70.15$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 108 | 63%68 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x423d…c621backed Over | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1956…5348backed Over | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4468…ad0abacked Over | 75c | 14.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Over | 80c | 13.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 80cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Bayern München vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Bayern München vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Bayern München vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)1. FSV Mainz 05 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.