Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Bayern München vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75da159bd01ded88f91fd1b83592d571df57af3830e8bbae771bb50a8ed0f032
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,706
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,841
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,706 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x85df…9124backed No | 5c | 1,800$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa5…7cc9backed No | 52c | 413.52$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.76 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 48c | 362.69$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.6 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 45c | 277.09$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.79 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Yes | 48c | 249.96$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.98 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a9…05ddbacked No | 52c | 218.78$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfc…ce53backed No | 60c | 170$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c2…97efbacked No | 54c | 155.56$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74c9…d064backed Yes | 49c | 143.13$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.13 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…785ebacked Yes | 49c | 113$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.63 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9714…3014backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 54cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…a81bbacked Yes | 40c | 90$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x205b…d66abacked Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3481…6b3cbacked No | 55c | 36.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…8528backed No | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -6.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6c14…9d72backed No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50be…bcb1backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a3…dac6backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Yes | 46c | 25.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 52c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 45c | 23.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 48c | 23.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…7959backed No | 51c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +89%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…d929backed No | 51c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Bayern München vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- FC Bayern München vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)1. FSV Mainz 05 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.