Token Launches · resolved market
Kinetiq FDV above $150M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd96be1fd7330540d70aa54fd68ea98b79828082856ee7b460baf1e80465ae33c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,172,578
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,255,782
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,172,578 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 298 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f9c…34d9backed No | 10c | 285,112$29,937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,936.7 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c0…df0bbacked Yes | 60c | 123,888$73,755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50,132.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe02c…5d08backed No | 21c | 57,401$11,859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,858.6 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb90…883cbacked No | 48c | 35,032$16,837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,837.03 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x030e…5652backed Yes | 61c | 18,400$11,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,149.98 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa3…3044backed No | 29c | 18,230$5,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,286.69 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf82c…0f6fbacked Yes | 71c | 17,432$12,461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,970.84 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57e4…835ebacked No | 41c | 13,359$5,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,424.17 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39ec…6504backed No | 40c | 13,349$5,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,282.25 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +5.1wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd0…e582backed No | 20c | 12,846$2,624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,624.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x266a…90c3backed No | 38c | 12,758$4,848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,847.85 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b6…86abbacked No | 41c | 12,711$5,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,188.4 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…b4b9backed No | 16c | 11,331$1,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,782.82 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…22a9backed Yes | 71c | 10,003$7,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,891.17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc452…7234backed No | 37c | 8,141$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe210…b956backed No | 31c | 8,074$2,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,469.96 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked Yes | 75c | 7,542$5,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,877.4 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 25c | 7,514$1,891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,891.16 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa43f…fc07backed No | 11c | 7,263$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819 | 57 | 12.3%7 W · 50 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc2…9271backed Yes | 61c | 6,507$3,976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,530.68 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc916…e32ebacked No | 36c | 6,029$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4c…de5bbacked No | 38c | 5,732$2,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,174.91 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae72…f49dbacked No | 63c | 5,323$3,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,340 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9956…a7cabacked No | 58c | 4,855$2,822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,822.26 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…a7d1backed No | 36c | 4,834$1,758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,757.5 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 55c | 4,578$2,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,509.19 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…1516backed Yes | 53c | 4,000$2,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,880 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaab…e6f2backed No | 38c | 3,644$1,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,403 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23f4…c234backed Yes | 70c | 3,553$2,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,079.77 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb373…c8b0backed No | 36c | 3,545$1,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,276.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb4…bb15backed No | 16c | 3,509$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9564…3a32backed No | 26c | 3,499$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e50…487bbacked No | 33c | 3,370$1,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,106.98 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 19c | 3,312$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.49 | 72 | 8.3%6 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc75…a292backed No | 25c | 3,310$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.18 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf91b…7f5fbacked No | 18c | 3,269$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.64 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58aa…a481backed No | 46c | 3,254$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…ec33backed No | 44c | 2,776$1,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,210 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d8…e6afbacked No | 25c | 2,723$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.9 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 2,723$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.08 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c35…370abacked No | 41c | 2,706$1,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,109.39 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 13c | 2,700$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.35 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb064…f5f3backed Yes | 60c | 2,564$1,534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,030.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9763…a292backed No | 52c | 2,563$1,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,337.61 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed No | 25c | 2,384$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 144 | 37.5%54 W · 90 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe182…b624backed Yes | 78c | 2,355$1,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.48 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d2…2ef7backed No | 1c | 2,225$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 42c | 2,191$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.61 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ff…58a7backed Yes | 80c | 2,190$1,752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948c…42eebacked Yes | 67c | 2,100$1,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ea…d11ebacked No | 18c | 2,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3c…c600backed Yes | 57c | 2,000$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 16c | 1,962$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.96 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x78e5…7d6abacked Yes | 54c | 1,902$1,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$865.99 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecd3…4285backed No | 22c | 1,866$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.9 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaee1…77fcbacked No | 30c | 1,808$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.88 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x464e…1a67backed Yes | 52c | 1,759$923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836.71 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x981d…0741backed No | 15c | 1,696$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.2 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 15c | 1,680$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.27 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04db…f0fdbacked No | 1c | 1,649$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc860…1454backed Yes | 74c | 1,637$1,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…33c3backed No | 45c | 1,600$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb8…b90fbacked Yes | 76c | 1,566$1,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.37 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc628…54f0backed No | 31c | 1,564$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.2 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +4.1wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +114.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed No | 13c | 1,545$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.5 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1da9…3710backed No | 29c | 1,540$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes | 73c | 1,500$1,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad4…3d8cbacked No | 19c | 1,404$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.1 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb85…a1bfbacked No | 1c | 1,384$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 16c | 1,264$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.04 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…1081backed Yes | 80c | 1,250$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…ffbebacked No | 27c | 1,222$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.38 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf68…474ebacked No | 19c | 1,176$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.63 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2616…8d3cbacked No | 38c | 1,035$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.32 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed No | 30c | 1,035$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.52 | 153 | 62.7%96 W · 57 L | +22.4wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d7…458ebacked No | 54c | 1,034$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5807…da1ebacked Yes | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13c0…911dbacked Yes | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e49…cc2abacked No | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.73 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 73c | 987.01$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.42 | 107 | 56.1%60 W · 47 L | +8.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…f72ebacked No | 30c | 976$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.8 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +164.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x87df…1892backed No | 66c | 933.75$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ced…1f21backed No | 7c | 929$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.55 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf7f…8a2dbacked No | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed81…82eebacked No | 22c | 887.86$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.91 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb45…915ebacked Yes | 59c | 848.15$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.15 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed No | 59c | 844.67$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.71 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4e…2c1fbacked No | 42c | 833.81$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09f0…1e82backed No | 66c | 833$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf84…4ab2backed No | 24c | 826.99$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dba…9c3dbacked Yes | 72c | 826.22$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.93 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26cc…5307backed No | 63c | 790.43$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfe…932ebacked No | 2c | 731.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…e00abacked No | 58c | 729.99$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.1 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f65…a0adbacked No | 41c | 717.73$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked No | 42c | 709.08$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 103 | 36.9%38 W · 65 L | +8.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x910d…5a46backed No | 10c | 700$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a5…bb7ebacked Yes | 61c | 700$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde8e…9603backed Yes | 59c | 700$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76a3…5249backed Yes | 61c | 699.99$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kinetiq FDV above $150M one day after launch?this page
- Kinetiq FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Kinetiq FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Kinetiq FDV above $200M one day after launch?No won
- Kinetiq FDV above $250M one day after launch?No won
- Kinetiq FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Kinetiq FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Kinetiq FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.