TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Wizards vs. Kings

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Kingsof Wizards, Kings
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,714,449
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,724,259

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,714,449 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb27…c56ebacked Wizards30c339,241$101,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,772.3487144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Wizards30c214,031$64,868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64,867.9851844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8e6…d504backed Wizards31c161,290$50,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,999.8421057.1%120 W · 90 L+20.3wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+19.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe6a3…2f0dbacked Kings70c122,319$85,623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,695.719560%117 W · 78 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Wizards30c100,000$30,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,999.9972648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Kings71c98,800$69,678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,1221,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Kings70c81,480$57,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,424.942,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Kings70c72,335$50,613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,722.3159653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b33…3d6abacked Wizards5c64,423$2,956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,955.528531.8%27 W · 58 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-36.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Kings70c45,667$31,762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,905.432,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdda6…925abacked Wizards4c44,407$1,984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,984.237135.2%25 W · 46 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+24.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Kings69c40,921$28,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,685.4192753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5798…ab44backed Wizards30c40,020$12,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,205.5915740.8%64 W · 93 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56e2…4b88backed Kings70c40,000$28,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,999.995253.8%28 W · 24 L+5.0wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+27.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Wizards30c35,000$10,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,649.9935235.8%126 W · 226 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Kings71c34,595$24,488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,106.5529245.5%133 W · 159 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x490e…73adbacked Wizards8c33,025$2,569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,568.599424.5%23 W · 71 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-39%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Wizards29c30,417$8,853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,852.661,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe258…2330backed Kings70c30,010$20,907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,103.123245.3%105 W · 127 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x062a…c2a3backed Kings70c30,005$21,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,974.4619048.4%92 W · 98 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+25.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Kings70c29,980$21,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,975.352,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Wizards16c27,175$4,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,358.971,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Kings71c26,714$18,895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,819.5237557.6%216 W · 159 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03f9…f78ebacked Wizards12c25,681$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00013339.1%52 W · 81 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Kings70c23,795$16,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,128.694,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Kings70c22,516$15,683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,832.823,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bda…0b2ebacked Wizards30c21,026$6,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,307.881637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid+63.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked Wizards29c20,404$5,917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,917.0327424.5%67 W · 207 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f05…8937backed Wizards29c19,452$5,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,665.9447028.1%132 W · 338 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Kings69c19,380$13,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,007.7472450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a79…a442backed Kings80c18,848$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,847.947062.9%44 W · 26 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Wizards14c18,687$2,642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,642.48,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Kings70c17,064$11,928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,136.191,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Kings69c16,768$11,649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,119.659,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed Kings69c16,219$11,212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,006.514663.7%93 W · 53 L+11.6wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Wizards0c16,083$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.45213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe12a…67efbacked Wizards31c15,000$4,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,65015841.1%65 W · 93 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xedc8…cca9backed Wizards31c14,996$4,597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,597.3920551.2%105 W · 100 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Kings69c14,496$10,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,493.7648352%251 W · 232 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Wizards1c14,081$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.6164517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Wizards14c14,016$1,968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,967.884,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Wizards29c13,915$4,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,065.4336741.4%152 W · 215 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Wizards27c13,547$3,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,684.892,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09ad…819ebacked Kings71c13,461$9,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,960.7614254.9%78 W · 64 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Wizards1c13,176$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.761,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x724b…e780backed Kings69c13,170$9,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,082.72259.1%13 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b5a…7070backed Wizards30c12,971$3,858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,857.922250%11 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-20.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7635…63f6backed Kings70c11,881$8,297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,583.7521440.7%87 W · 127 L-16.2wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcad4…c108backed Wizards31c10,422$3,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,230.776651.5%34 W · 32 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf35f…64c5backed Kings70c10,075$7,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,022.374862.5%30 W · 18 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7960…b94fbacked Kings70c10,000$7,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,00019751.8%102 W · 95 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x832d…d420backed Wizards27c10,000$2,664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,663.526540%26 W · 39 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba41…5f4fbacked Wizards29c10,000$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,90031445.2%142 W · 172 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b13…cc35backed Wizards29c9,958$2,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,897.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc31…4a51backed Kings69c9,710$6,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,010.1413063.8%83 W · 47 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48c8…72a4backed Wizards29c9,514$2,766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,766.49443.6%41 W · 53 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44f7…266fbacked Wizards0c9,500$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.54573.5%16 W · 441 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf79a…56c2backed Wizards22c9,392$2,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,09523250.4%117 W · 115 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Kings69c9,325$6,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,850.3171547.7%341 W · 374 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x622e…07abbacked Kings70c9,250$6,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,77517356.1%97 W · 76 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xccdb…ffa9backed Kings70c8,571$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,571.433884.2%32 W · 6 L+10.8wins+0.29per pick56cpaid+59.5%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Wizards30c8,333$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50076746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x377c…91aebacked Wizards14c8,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,079.9947535.8%170 W · 305 L+41.1wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+26.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Wizards21c7,959$1,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,661.6661939.6%245 W · 374 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57cd…a0fbbacked Kings69c7,880$5,437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,442.85655.4%31 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Wizards21c7,797$1,663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,662.9478445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3657…6cd3backed Kings71c7,700$5,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2689256.5%52 W · 40 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Kings70c7,435$5,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,230.462351.4%320 W · 303 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6165…db3cbacked Kings70c7,143$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,142.868662.8%54 W · 32 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e29…9e66backed Wizards22c7,124$1,588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,587.6450241.2%207 W · 295 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x816b…d69dbacked Kings71c6,796$4,807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,989.324752.6%130 W · 117 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd1e…ff14backed Kings70c6,779$4,712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,067.2116370.6%115 W · 48 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x00e0…8a94backed Wizards19c6,626$1,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,226.0810448.1%50 W · 54 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8b1…171abacked Kings70c6,237$4,366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,871.24683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.29per pick54cpaid+192.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcd3a…67cabacked Wizards16c6,175$993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992.7750838.2%194 W · 314 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Wizards2c6,038$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.927917.9%50 W · 229 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c10…8977backed Kings69c6,000$4,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,859.9862347.7%297 W · 326 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Wizards30c6,000$1,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,819.9732039.4%126 W · 194 L-1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Wizards14c5,882$809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809.033,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cdb…1d79backed Wizards29c5,800$1,682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,681.99666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a09…db1cbacked Kings69c5,797$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,797.13452.9%18 W · 16 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick64cpaid-16.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a08…9234backed Kings70c5,709$3,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,712.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Wizards21c5,350$1,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,141.531,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Kings70c5,285$3,726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,559.3456453.9%304 W · 260 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4137…586cbacked Wizards30c5,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50047043.8%206 W · 264 L-22.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed Wizards30c5,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50035450.8%180 W · 174 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5646…3819backed Wizards29c5,000$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,45012938.8%50 W · 79 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0919…c868backed Kings71c5,000$3,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4501275%9 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+60.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b7a…3accbacked Wizards2c4,621$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.0518825%47 W · 141 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed Kings71c4,607$3,271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,336.0330845.8%141 W · 167 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ebf…82d5backed Wizards31c4,500$1,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3953551.4%18 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbabe…f584backed Kings70c4,500$3,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3501643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-27.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b79…6bd0backed Kings70c4,496$3,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,348.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Wizards30c4,100$1,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2301,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f08…ed44backed Wizards8c4,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30039744.3%176 W · 221 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Wizards30c4,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20043348.5%210 W · 223 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Kings70c3,965$2,776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,189.5358449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4a4…3117backed Wizards3c3,867$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12828616.4%47 W · 239 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f99…c209backed Kings76c3,797$2,876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$920.8613155%72 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed Kings71c3,700$2,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,07328643%123 W · 163 L-1.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.