NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Kings: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7eafa87d809843ba937b7e6a6988d8730b5b6d4011ad054a5c40a9dfe8763109
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $97,257
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,787
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,257 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Over | 50c | 19,037$9,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,519.39 | 579 | 50.1%290 W · 289 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Over | 51c | 18,915$9,647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,268.68 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,900 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 50c | 9,693$4,847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,846.5 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44d4…1970backed Under | 52c | 8,810$4,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,575.05 | 167 | 52.1%87 W · 80 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Under | 50c | 8,000$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 297 | 48.1%143 W · 154 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 50c | 8,000$4,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,040 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 50c | 7,017$3,508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,508.5 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 50c | 6,004$3,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,002.04 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 50c | 5,264$2,606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,605.8 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 51c | 4,843$2,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,459.18 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb48f…d015backed Over | 48c | 4,292$2,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,231.67 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9f…e125backed Under | 50c | 3,827$1,914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,913.52 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 50c | 3,746$1,873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,872.98 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Under | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 379 | 44.3%168 W · 211 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 2,250$1,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120.9 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 51c | 1,094$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.07 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0500…6158backed Over | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.41 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Under | 49c | 978.64$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.53 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 50c | 941.74$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.22 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Under | 50c | 799$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.5 | 266 | 38.7%103 W · 163 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eee…9b2bbacked Over | 54c | 712.96$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.96 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…1769backed Under | 50c | 689.76$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.88 | 321 | 50.8%163 W · 158 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 49c | 612$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.12 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 691 | 49.1%339 W · 352 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Under | 56c | 453$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.74 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Under | 49c | 388.13$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.93 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x66cc…7135backed Over | 50c | 354$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 212 | 50.5%107 W · 105 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 48c | 324$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.48 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 406 | 48%195 W · 211 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b87…f42dbacked Under | 51c | 206.11$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked Under | 48c | 200.01$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.6 | 165 | 49.7%82 W · 83 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Over | 52c | 192.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.3 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…7fafbacked Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c0…6aa1backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 57cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed Under | 46c | 160.19$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.69 | 179 | 53.1%95 W · 84 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 110.72$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.73 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a64…6769backed Under | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 173 | 53.2%92 W · 81 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01fa…c2edbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc60f…9ea3backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | +8.8wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +102.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x87ae…811bbacked Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce16…749fbacked Under | 53c | 92.89$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.23 | 117 | 55.6%65 W · 52 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…d270backed Under | 48c | 89.4$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.27 | 127 | 52%66 W · 61 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Under | 51c | 78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 421 | 43.7%184 W · 237 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e78…70c7backed Over | 50c | 75.4$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 329 | 52.9%174 W · 155 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed Under | 51c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 479 | 48.6%233 W · 246 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Over | 51c | 61.24$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 806 | 53.6%432 W · 374 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3c…0696backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4dcd…43aabacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60df…7092backed Under | 53c | 44.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Under | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 246 | 45.9%113 W · 133 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 49c | 37.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 50c | 35.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Over | 51c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Under | 53c | 28.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 336 | 53.9%181 W · 155 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 22.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | -10.9wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x47ba…a503backed Under | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 169 | 42.6%72 W · 97 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wizards vs. Kings: O/U 233.5this page
- 1H Spread: Kings (-4.5)Kings won
- Spread: Kings (-6.5)Kings won
- Spread: Kings (-7.5)Kings won
- Wizards vs. KingsKings won
- Wizards vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineKings won
- Wizards vs. Kings: O/U 229.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Kings: O/U 231.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Kings: O/U 232.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Kings: O/U 234.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Kings: O/U 235.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.