TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Wizards vs. Kings: O/U 233.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$97,257
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$97,787

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,257 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7b47…d615backed Over50c19,037$9,518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,519.3957950.1%290 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Over51c18,915$9,647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,268.681,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under49c10,000$4,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,9002,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Over50c9,693$4,847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,846.52,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44d4…1970backed Under52c8,810$4,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,575.0516752.1%87 W · 80 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Under50c8,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00029748.1%143 W · 154 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under50c8,000$4,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0401,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Over50c7,017$3,508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,508.51,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under50c6,004$3,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,002.043,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under50c5,264$2,606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,605.82,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under51c4,843$2,459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,459.182,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb48f…d015backed Over48c4,292$2,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,231.6712454.8%68 W · 56 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b9f…e125backed Under50c3,827$1,914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,913.5211252.7%59 W · 53 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over50c3,746$1,873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,872.984,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Under50c3,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50037944.3%168 W · 211 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under50c2,250$1,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,120.99,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Under51c1,094$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.071,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0500…6158backed Over49c1,020$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.4112151.2%62 W · 59 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Under49c978.64$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.5371547.7%341 W · 374 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under50c941.74$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.222,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Under50c799$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.526638.7%103 W · 163 L-9.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1eee…9b2bbacked Over54c712.96$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.961266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+25.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3a91…1769backed Under50c689.76$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.8832150.8%163 W · 158 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over49c612$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.122,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Over50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25069149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee20…5b37backed Under56c453$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.7450347.9%241 W · 262 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Under49c388.13$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.9368940.2%277 W · 412 L-54.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-17.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x66cc…7135backed Over50c354$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17721250.5%107 W · 105 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over48c324$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.486,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6036…d2ccbacked Under50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15040648%195 W · 211 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b87…f42dbacked Under51c206.11$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1057544%33 W · 42 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e2c…787cbacked Under48c200.01$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.616549.7%82 W · 83 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf332…3c89backed Under50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10065649.2%323 W · 333 L+9.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe025…102fbacked Over52c192.3$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.315649.4%77 W · 79 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec14…7fafbacked Over54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.193925.6%10 W · 29 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-41.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd7c0…6aa1backed Over55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.82887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.30per pick57cpaid+56.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd93b…cd48backed Under46c160.19$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.6917953.1%95 W · 84 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under50c110.72$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.738,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a64…6769backed Under47c106.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5017353.2%92 W · 81 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01fa…c2edbacked Under50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5017447.7%83 W · 91 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc60f…9ea3backed Over49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514872.9%35 W · 13 L+8.8wins+0.18per pick54cpaid+102.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x87ae…811bbacked Under51c98.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5017545.7%80 W · 95 L-9.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xce16…749fbacked Under53c92.89$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2311755.6%65 W · 52 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc79f…d270backed Under48c89.4$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2712752%66 W · 61 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xac98…7281backed Under51c78$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7642143.7%184 W · 237 L-0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e78…70c7backed Over50c75.4$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.732952.9%174 W · 155 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9de1…f272backed Under51c70$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.747948.6%233 W · 246 L+14.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Over51c61.24$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.0180653.6%432 W · 374 L+16.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c3c…0696backed Under48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244141.5%17 W · 24 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-27%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4dcd…43aabacked Under50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253237.5%12 W · 20 L-4.1wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2549351.7%255 W · 238 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60df…7092backed Under53c44.43$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5511752.1%61 W · 56 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6894…59d8backed Under47c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.824645.9%113 W · 133 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Under49c37.56$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.591,26445.8%579 W · 685 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Over50c35.31$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.791,42547.7%680 W · 745 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Over51c29$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.1788845.7%406 W · 482 L-12.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ae4…7c46backed Under53c28.35$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9533653.9%181 W · 155 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under46c22.96$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.565,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16fe…9496backed Under50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108235.4%29 W · 53 L-10.9wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-29.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x47ba…a503backed Under51c19.61$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1016942.6%72 W · 97 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.