NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Kings: O/U 235.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f71a35ec2c8114d6ca9ffff5b4994bd1e65ba7b314a0885b0447c690741fbce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $130,029
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $130,097
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $130,029 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x777d…5143backed Under | 52c | 124,411$64,694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64,693.81 | 197 | 54.3%107 W · 90 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 67,298$32,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,001.64 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08c5…43edbacked Over | 48c | 29,167$14,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,166.67 | 443 | 52.4%232 W · 211 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Over | 48c | 15,595$7,486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,109.4 | 403 | 50.1%202 W · 201 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 48c | 5,218$2,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,713.56 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb48f…d015backed Over | 48c | 4,477$2,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,328.08 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1748…a816backed Over | 48c | 3,879$1,862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,017.17 | 173 | 44.5%77 W · 96 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 45c | 1,696$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.25 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 56c | 1,670$932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.1 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a9…45ffbacked Over | 48c | 1,150$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.99 | 238 | 50%119 W · 119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 52c | 1,136$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.89 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 943.21$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.64 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3c…0696backed Over | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24a4…86dabacked Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff7…9ab6backed Over | 48c | 85.07$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.24 | 454 | 60.4%274 W · 180 L | +21.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb53c…c76ebacked Over | 52c | 76.44$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 487 | 40.7%198 W · 289 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2696…c031backed Under | 55c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Under | 56c | 53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 379 | 59.4%225 W · 154 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Under | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 63c | 42.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 48c | 41.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 48c | 40.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc212…18b9backed Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90e1…5848backed Under | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f45…709abacked Under | 51c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 92 | 42.4%39 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 52c | 31.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Under | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1d…58fcbacked Under | 50c | 21.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 56c | 20.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wizards vs. Kings: O/U 235.5this page
- 1H Spread: Kings (-4.5)Kings won
- Spread: Kings (-6.5)Kings won
- Spread: Kings (-7.5)Kings won
- Wizards vs. KingsKings won
- Wizards vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineKings won
- Wizards vs. Kings: O/U 229.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Kings: O/U 231.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Kings: O/U 232.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Kings: O/U 233.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Kings: O/U 234.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.