Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9aca3f0ee88c5a9de287c9f1456496f0a2c72f212583020db259f0a34ec31311

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 10, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $267,818
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $256,966

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $267,818 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 195 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2be3…688fbacked Yes	71c	11,900$8,472 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,427.75	34	20.6%7 W · 27 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	34c	8,788$2,992 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,795.07	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	25c	7,000$1,741 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,258.62	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	74c	5,250$3,903 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,346.59	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No	17c	4,664$786 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$785.55	169	69.2%117 W · 52 L	+17.6wins	+0.10per pick	59cpaid	+13%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	23c	4,179$963 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,215.72	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	21c	3,613$759 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,853.6	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	16c	3,313$541 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,771.99	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	25c	3,227$813 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,414.64	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cde…b42abacked Yes	20c	3,000$600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,400	85	8.2%7 W · 78 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No	77c	2,735$2,112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,111.64	185	31.4%58 W · 127 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-36%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	22c	2,599$560 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$560.02	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	26c	2,502$655 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,847.3	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	20c	2,500$511 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,989.2	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	28c	2,169$613 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,555.78	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	37c	2,140$783 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,357.01	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8981…ce82backed No	58c	2,070$1,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,200.11	181	63%114 W · 67 L	+4.1wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26db…7abcbacked Yes	71c	2,030$1,443 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$586.55	61	19.7%12 W · 49 L	-6.8wins	-0.11per pick	31cpaid	-55.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x469a…c784backed Yes	75c	2,000$1,490 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$510	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	33cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac38…f21ebacked Yes	63c	1,846$1,160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$686.3	45	24.4%11 W · 34 L	-4.8wins	-0.11per pick	35cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x509d…0f6ebacked Yes	80c	1,775$1,419 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$355.81	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	41cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes	25c	1,516$380 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,136.25	128	10.9%14 W · 114 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-61.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	30c	1,483$449 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,034.4	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	20c	1,434$284 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,150.1	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x245c…2486backed No	73c	1,349$990 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$989.67	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-1.3wins	-0.26per pick	66cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked No	9c	1,250$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d21…d7cdbacked Yes	59c	1,140$676 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$464.03	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfed7…5490backed Yes	55c	1,086$601 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$484.82	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-49.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebf6…a960backed Yes	20c	1,078$212 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$865.52	112	20.5%23 W · 89 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	24c	1,065$257 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$808.52	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes	25c	1,042$260 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$782.35	138	18.8%26 W · 112 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes	24c	1,002$239 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$762.57	207	17.4%36 W · 171 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1633…190cbacked Yes	21c	1,000$212 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$788.03	34	14.7%5 W · 29 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe36d…290ebacked Yes	49c	1,000$490 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$510	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.51per pick	49cpaid	+104.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	41c	1,000$405 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$595	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c5f…a235backed No	80c	1,000$800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$800	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.2wins	-0.39per pick	39cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	60c	937.86$558 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$379.48	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad4a…ddb8backed Yes	24c	934.95$225 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$709.55	23	30.4%7 W · 16 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	16c	918.82$147 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$771.77	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes	17c	882.31$153 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$729.43	33	9.1%3 W · 30 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-52.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b3c…2abebacked No	75c	849.99$637 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$637.2	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-73.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2aa…0e03backed Yes	31c	848.12$261 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$587.47	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed Yes	41c	837$345 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$491.63	202	26.7%54 W · 148 L	+8.0wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf3d…d571backed Yes	20c	835.35$165 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$670.35	53	17%9 W · 44 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No	65c	820.72$536 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$536.07	439	33%145 W · 294 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd42b…48c8backed Yes	14c	800$112 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$688	246	8.5%21 W · 225 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	21c	765$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$605.35	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd2b…9ff9backed Yes	28c	707.49$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$507.49	32	25%8 W · 24 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe863…e221backed Yes	12c	678.3$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$595.21	53	26.4%14 W · 39 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	22cpaid	+21%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5822…0d28backed Yes	32c	676.21$215 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$460.8	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No	61c	666.94$409 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$409.49	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed No	42c	645.62$273 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$273.41	186	8.6%16 W · 170 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb933…fb0abacked Yes	21c	624$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$493.54	89	22.5%20 W · 69 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed No	74c	591.21$440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$440	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	+20%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes	19c	535.94$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$435.94	232	17.7%41 W · 191 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ade…c43abacked Yes	77c	524.4$402 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$121.92	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	37cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	27c	523.05$141 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$382.37	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4acd…b7a8backed Yes	80c	512.99$408 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.77	58	13.8%8 W · 50 L	-4.3wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3336…f823backed Yes	22c	500$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$390	36	25%9 W · 27 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe671…3e6dbacked Yes	6c	500$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$470	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.43per pick	7cpaid	+733.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	5c	500$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$475	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa82d…f5c0backed Yes	39c	499.68$194 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$305.76	36	19.4%7 W · 29 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Yes	25c	492.77$125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$367.77	221	19.9%44 W · 177 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc82f…fe06backed Yes	23c	434.78$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$334.78	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	22cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	8c	426.86$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$393.9	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked No	12c	391.91$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.03	25	48%12 W · 13 L	+9.2wins	+0.37per pick	11cpaid	+624.5%equal weight	70+0.18 edge/pick
0xf8de…1021backed Yes	73c	370.3$269 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101.61	10	40%4 W · 6 L	+1.3wins	+0.13per pick	27cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x210c…2edabacked No	71c	367.22$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260.4	12	75%9 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	76cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	22c	361.48$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$281.51	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7865…28a8backed Yes	12c	350$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$309.5	103	39.8%41 W · 62 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	26c	331.8$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$246.17	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x52e4…38cabacked Yes	79c	323.54$255 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.15	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.21per pick	79cpaid	+26.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x868d…8d9dbacked Yes	16c	314.98$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$264.98	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+0.8wins	+0.09per pick	28cpaid	+21.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b5a…4407backed Yes	19c	300$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$242	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe9…78cabacked Yes	25c	300$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$225	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7403…8eb5backed Yes	76c	300$228 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	18c	300$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$245	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb55c…a4a9backed Yes	14c	246.79$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$212.24	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.25per pick	25cpaid	+257.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafbb…7525backed Yes	17c	241.27$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$201.27	52	26.9%14 W · 38 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeee2…c260backed Yes	33c	229.63$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$153.01	125	23.2%29 W · 96 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xb8c5…0166backed Yes	25c	228.1$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$171.08	49	12.2%6 W · 43 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-71%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	24c	220$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$167.2	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed Yes	38c	220$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$137.2	70	45.7%32 W · 38 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes	42c	215.52$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$125.51	431	26.2%113 W · 318 L	+2.1wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x5609…33f4backed Yes	17c	203.5$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$168	15	20%3 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x81ad…3ae0backed Yes	28c	200$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$144.5	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xcbed…c997backed Yes	13c	200$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$174	34	20.6%7 W · 27 L	+3.3wins	+0.10per pick	11cpaid	+78.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x77ed…d041backed Yes	20c	200$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$160	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e00…ea54backed Yes	77c	200$154 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46	28	28.6%8 W · 20 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cff…83c4backed Yes	75c	200$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.58	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	+1.9wins	+0.07per pick	32cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8667…8e0bbacked Yes	23c	200$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$154	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa1de…85d9backed Yes	20c	199.95$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$159.35	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	+41.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x392a…6bbabacked Yes	72c	197.36$142 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.66	93	24.7%23 W · 70 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x798f…6f10backed Yes	41c	196.68$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$115.51	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+1.0wins	+0.12per pick	13cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x366c…ec01backed Yes	28c	178.57$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$128.57	49	18.4%9 W · 40 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+107.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1668…5b24backed No	70c	177.25$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.08	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	20c	169$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$134.53	503	19.5%98 W · 405 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05dd…4d45backed Yes	31c	160$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110.4	76	26.3%20 W · 56 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	28c	154.62$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110.72	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde2f…1209backed Yes	13c	151$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$131.37	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	+34.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event